In Geopolitics This Week
European Countries Impose Bans on Ukrainian Agricultural Imports, Germany Struggles to Balance Defence and Security Obligations, Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, and other stories
European Countries Impose Bans on Ukrainian Agricultural Imports
Several European countries are currently imposing bans on Ukrainian agricultural imports to protect their local farmers from cheap prices. This action is a result of the glut of cheap Ukrainian agricultural goods that have flooded the European market, causing a drop in prices and jeopardizing the livelihoods of farmers, particularly in the countries that have imposed the bans. The European Commission, however, has rejected the bans and stated that they are unacceptable under the EU's trade policy. Talks to resolve the issue are expected to occur between Ukrainian authorities and those in the countries which have imposed the ban.
Several EU countries, including Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria, have complained about the influx of tariff-free Ukrainian cereals. They argue that the massive arrival of produce is filling up warehouses, distorting the market, and depressing prices for local producers. The leaders of these five countries have jointly written to the European Commission, requesting appropriate procedures be put in place to reintroduce tariffs and quotas on imports from Ukraine. The trend of lowering commodity prices has been met with fierce criticism in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria.
The rift over tariff-free imports of Ukrainian grain has acquired a new dimension, with Slovakia adopting a similar prohibition on certain agricultural products from Ukraine, while Bulgaria is suggesting it may follow suit. Almost half of Ukraine's cargo is maize, which must be exported to make space for the summer harvest. In response to the glut of cheap agricultural goods, the European Union suspended duties and quotas on several Ukrainian exports to the EU to assist Ukraine to cope with the economic fallout of the war and facilitate trade for Ukrainian farmers. The suspension is meant to last until June of 2023, but the Commission has proposed a one-year extension.
Germany Struggles to Balance Defence and Security Obligations
Germany's recent military aid to Ukraine has highlighted the challenges of balancing national defence commitments and security obligations to allies. This has put a strain on the country's defence capabilities and has made it difficult for Germany to prioritize NATO commitments and build up its own defence. The situation presents a complex and difficult challenge for Germany's defence industry, which is now looking to accelerate armament procurement and enable serial production.
The German government has started investing in restoring the operational readiness of the Bundeswehr, but the pledged amounts remain modest. It will take years to reach the required level of readiness to sustain arms deliveries to Ukraine and improve domestic defence at the current pace. Berlin’s solution to this problem is to consider market availability, meaning that the Bundeswehr will soon purchase equipment used by other NATO armies. It is evident that Europe, without the United States, would struggle to balance powers like China or Russia, or even NATO partners like Turkey.
The new German Minister of Defence is implementing a series of reforms to reduce bureaucracy and speed up decision-making processes. The reduction of departments within the MoD will reduce the number of staff for positions like the State Secretaries. Instead, a new central staff is being formed, led by General Freuding, who is currently coordinating Germany's military support for Ukraine. This is intended to ensure that decisions that don't require high-level approval can be made by lower-level officials.
Sudan on the Brink of Civil War
The ongoing conflict in Sudan between the army and paramilitary forces has shown no signs of a major de-escalation. Reports suggest that contingents of the Sudanese air force may have defected, potentially negating the Sudanese military's intelligence and airpower advantage. Nevertheless, the estimated number of troops on either side is relatively equal, threatening to divide the country into strongholds.
The western Darfur region is at particular risk due to its historical connections to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). An escalation of fighting in this area could attract additional armed groups and result in a prolonged conflict throughout the vast nation. It is suspected that the RSF is receiving ammunition and supplies from neighbouring countries, and the RSF holds positions on the Chadian border, where there is an abundance of weapons.
As Sudan enters the second week of clashes, the situation in Khartoum, Omdurman, and other cities across the country remains fluid and rapidly evolving. Intense combat in major cities will likely persist, although temporary pauses in fighting could allow for the evacuation of foreign nationals. The most likely scenario appears to be a continuation of intense urban warfare, though mounting pressure from the United States, Saudi Arabia, and others may result in a brief pause for evacuation.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a three-day humanitarian ceasefire over the Islamic holiday of Eid al-Fitr, which began on April 21, to allow foreign nationals to evacuate the country and Sudanese citizens to receive medical treatment and supplies. However, three prior attempts at ceasefires have fallen through since the clashes began. In the coming days and weeks, the fighting in Sudan could evolve in at least four different ways.
The most likely scenario is that the SAF and/or RSF agree to periodic ceasefires, but intermittent fighting persists in urban centres. While a permanent or indefinite ceasefire is improbable, international pressure could prompt either or both of the warring sides to briefly pause fighting, with many countries still working on safely evacuating their staff.