In Geopolitics This Week
Invoking the Kosovo Precedent in Ukraine, The US Working with Allies on Information Warfare in the Indo-Pacific, North Korea Test-fires ICBM Missile In the Sea of Japan, and other stories.
Invoking the Kosovo Precedent in Ukraine
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine began with Russia's initiation of a “special military operation” in eastern Ukraine, with Moscow citing Article 51 of the UN Charter and recognizing the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. In doing so, Russia invoked the Kosovo precedent as part of its legal argument, referring to NATO’s military intervention on behalf of the Kosovo Liberation Army against Yugoslavia in 1996 and the eventual declaration of Kosovo's independence in 2008.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has declined to take a position on the legality of the declaration of independence and the existence of a right of secession, but in 2010, ruled that Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence did not violate international law. The ICJ altered the inquiry on the legality of Kosovo's independence by formulating it in a manner that generated a new one, focused on whether there exist restrictive regulations regarding statements of independence under international law. The manner in which the ICJ handled the Kosovo precedent has therefore opened up possibilities for violating previously uncontested principles of state sovereignty in support of secessionist movements, subject to certain circumstances.
Historical grievances, accusations about human rights violations, internal conflict, and de facto secession exist in both the Russian and NATO legal reasonings. A notable difference is that the Russian invasion followed shortly after its recognition of the declared independence of the two “republics” in the Donbas, whereas NATO chose to initiate military operations before formal recognition.
The US Working with Allies on Information Warfare in the Indo-Pacific
The United States is working with its allies, including the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing partners, to share and develop information warfare techniques for the Indo-Pacific region. Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK, and Japan are among the countries that are either establishing or interested in partnering with Washington in information warfare programs.
Information warfare involves offensive and defensive electronic capabilities and cyber operations, combining data awareness and manipulation to gain an advantage before, during, and after battles. The US sees having allies in the arena as powerful, particularly in the Pacific, and the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific strategy document emphasizes the need to deepen interoperability and deploy advanced warfighting capabilities.
The US Navy’s Pacific Fleet has already established its own information command, Fleet Information Warfare Command Pacific (FIWC PAC), to integrate critical information capabilities into its operations. FIWC PAC aims to use information operations to shape conditions and public perceptions below the threshold of inter-state conflict. The new command is based loosely on the processes pioneered by Joint Special Operations Command in Iraq, which aimed to identify, plan, execute and assess information operations through a process known as “find, fix, finish, exploit, analyse and disseminate.”
The establishment of new cyber defence forces in the Indo-Pacific region marks a new era in discussions of conflicts in cyberspace. The securitisation and militarisation of the cyber domain will continue, with states seeking to strengthen national cybersecurity postures. All regional stakeholders will seek to find a balance between encouraging digital innovation and ensuring adequate cybersecurity while providing a relatively ‘permissive’ online information environment.
North Korea Test-fires ICBM Missile In the Sea of Japan
North Korea launched a long-range ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan, just one day after the country's foreign ministry threatened to take “unprecedent” action in response to military drills conducted by the US and South Korea. The statement affirmed North Korea's “nuke to nuke” stance while accusing Washington and Seoul of escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Both South Korea and the United States are increasing the number of joint military drills conducted this year and are also working to improve operations involving US nuclear assets around the Korean Peninsula. The latest exercises, called the Deterrence Strategy Committee Tabletop Exercise, will involve senior defence policymakers from both countries and focus on strengthening US nuclear deterrence against North Korea. In its latest defence white paper, South Korea has referred to North Korea as an “enemy” and highlighted that Pyongyang has augmented its weapons-grade plutonium reserves by roughly 40 percent.
The test-launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) reportedly landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone as South Korean and US intelligence authorities are now said to be analysing the detailed specifications of the missile launch. The missile test may have marked the second successful trial of the Hwasong-17 and potentially served as a test for a solid-fuel ICBM that Pyongyang is currently developing. Pyongyang claims that these measures are necessary to counteract the aggressive acts of the US and South Korea, perceiving increased military cooperation between the US and its allies in the region as a direct threat to its national security.