In Geopolitics This Week
Mali Pushes Back Against German Bundeswehr, Venezuela Halts Oil Shipments To Europe, US Military Support for Ukraine Intensifies, and other stories.
Mali Pushes Back Against German Bundeswehr
A conflict between Mali and Germany over the Bundeswehr’s deployment in the West African country continues to strain relations between the two countries. While some differences over the arrival and departure of German soldiers were resolved last week, Berlin has maintained pressure on Mali over its military cooperation with Russia. This comes at a time when Bamako is taking action against unauthorized military activities conducted by foreign powers on its territory.
Bamako has accused France of having carried out dozens of unauthorized operations in Mali, some which Malian officials claim were part of state espionage and subversion. Mali’s government is now requesting a special session of the UN Security Council and has begun taking action against a private contractor of the German Bundeswehr for having operated a military camp at the airport of Mali’s capital without authorization. As a consequence, 49 Ivorians are now on trial in Mali as Bamako accuses the soldiers from Côte d’Ivoire of attempting to perform illicit security operations for a military camp used by German soldiers.
The main issue in the conflict between Mali and Germany is the continuously growing cooperation between the Malian government and Moscow. Since late 2021, Russian military instructors and private military contractors have been on the ground in support of the Malian armed forces. In the meantime, Malian troops are also being transferred combat equipment from Russia as Moscow has delivered some helicopters and radar equipment, among other things, to Bamako.
The conflict over Malian-Russian military cooperation is currently escalating. France’s withdrawal of military forces has led to soldiers and employees of Russian private military contractors to take their place. If the Bundeswehr has a problem with the proximity of Russian forces, and the strategic situation would turn for the worse if the Russian military assumed control of functions at the airport, which would allow them to influence the Bundeswehr’s flight movements.
Venezuela Halts Oil Shipments To Europe
Member states of the European Union are quickly running out of alternatives to Russian energy. As an EU-wide oil ban approaches and gas pipelines operate at a reduced capacity, a potential alternative source to Russian oil — Venezuela — has recently halted oil shipments to Europe.
Venezuela had restarted oil shipments to Europe after years of US-imposed sanctions prevented trading with the country. Under a deal that allowed Caracas to trade oil for debt relief, Venezuelan oil was once again being imported by EU member states.
Now, Caracas has suspended those shipments, stating a lack of interest in continuing oil-for-debt deals. Beyond the oil-for-debt deal, sanctions on Venezuela prevent Venezuelan oil to flow to the global markets without those trading with the country incurring harsh penalties imposed by Washington and its allies. As a result, without a comprehensive easing of the sanctions regime imposed on Venezuela, EU member states may soon be desperate for energy alternatives, which could lead to further rises in energy prices as a scramble to meet the EU’s new energy storage requirements intensifies.
Venezuelan oil shipments, particularly those sent to refineries in Spain, have helped EU member states to reduce their purchases of Russian oil. But the deal’s terms have not provided the needed cash or fuel to Petróleos de Venezuela, — the country’s state-owned oil and natural gas company — whose own refineries are now struggling to produce gasoline and diesel after years of underinvestment and lack of repairs. Under the terms of the oil-for-debt deal, Washington authorized shipments as long as cargo proceeds were used to pay off debt accumulated by Petróleos de Venezuela to joint ventures with Eni and Repsol.
US Military Support for Ukraine Intensifies
The United States has stepped up its military support of Ukraine. Washington confirmed that a new $775 million military aid package is headed to Ukraine that will include Scan Eagle surveillance drones, mine-resistant vehicles, anti-armour rounds and howitzer weapons, in order to assist Ukraine’s armed forces regain territory via a long-touted counteroffensive against Russian forces.
The latest package of US aid intended to immediately assist Ukraine includes AGM-88 high-speed anti-radiation missiles, which will allow Ukrainian forces to target stationary and mobile Russian radars. The 15 ScanEagles surveillance drones the US is sending to Ukraine are a small, long-endurance, low-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle used for reconnaissance and target acquisition. Other arms transferred include 16 M777 howitzers with 36,000 artillery rounds and 1,000, tube-launched, optically tracked, anti-tank missiles.
Moreover, the military aid package also includes 40 mine-resistant vehicles for mine-clearing, 50 Humvees and 1,000 Javelin anti-tank weapons. This latest weapons shipment is the 19th of its kind since the war began and is a part of the $40 billion in security and economic assistance passed by the US Congress in May of this year.
Just days after the arms transfer was confirmed, Washington announced it is also sending Ukraine a $3 billion military package that indicates a shift towards ensuring Ukraine’s medium-term survival against Russian forces. In a signal of support on Ukraine’s independence day, Washington announced the transfer of approximately $2.98 billion of weapons, equipment and training to Ukraine’s armed forces.
This latest transfer will also come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative passed by the US Congress and is aimed at securing Ukraine's medium-term defence posture. Some of the weapons, ammunition and equipment provided under this latest tranche will not reach Ukraine soon, and may not see the battlefield for 1-2 years, as US arms manufacturers are expected to fulfil new contracts for arming Ukraine. This commitment indicates a strong US interest in maintaining Ukraine's ability to thwart Russian advances over the next few years.