In Geopolitics This Week
UAE Treads Carefully Between Russian Commerce and US Sanctions, Israel and Hamas Agree to a 4-Day Ceasefire, Germany Ramps Up Aid to Reinforce Ukraine's Air Defences, and other stories.
UAE Treads Carefully Between Russian Commerce and US Sanctions
The UAE faces growing friction amid efforts to balance continued economic ties with Russia while avoiding risks from enabling evasion of Western sanctions on Moscow. As the US pressures Gulf states over sanctions non-compliance, the UAE has tightened banking scrutiny, curtailing Russian commercial transactions and limiting their access to the financial system.
Among those targetted, Dubai-based 365 Freight Services specializes in shipping high-value machine components, but now must vet export destinations more stringently to avoid potential violations. Meanwhile, aviation servicing firm Flavic risks losing its certification to work with the Russian Defence Ministry if it cuts off business to comply with Western sanctions. For the UAE, removal from the anti-money laundering watchlist necessitates demonstrating good faith efforts to Washington. However, with deep commercial links with Russia, the UAE remains torn between competing priorities.
The UAE still provides a useful hub for unsanctioned Russian elites and firms. But the space for the unconstrained flow of Russian money grows increasingly fraught. For Moscow, workarounds through the UAE and elsewhere buy time but offer no lasting solution as options continue to narrow globally. For the UAE, restricted ties may suffice for now to defuse acute tensions with Washington. But ultimately, stark trade-offs loom between continued prosperity built on Russian capital inflows against risks to the enduring security benefits of its alliance with the US.
As the war in Ukraine persists, sharp divisions compound pressures on Gulf states to decisively choose camps. Unless tensions de-escalate, delicately reconciling contradictory interests appears unsustainable as time goes by. A decisive tilt toward either Russia or the US may emerge in time, driven by pragmatic calculations of vulnerability, leverage, and future opportunities. For now, the UAE attempts to cautiously balance. Its approach of gradual compliance attempts to cautiously reconcile the differing demands of its security partnership with Washington against enduring financial interests with Moscow. But the tensions seem destined to necessitate a clearer alignment one way or another.
Israel and Hamas Agree to a 4-Day Ceasefire
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a precarious 4-day Gaza truce this weekend, brokered by Qatar. The limited pact enables initial aid shipments while securing piecemeal hostage releases — 50 Hamas-held Israelis freed in exchange for over 100 Palestinian prisoners over 4 days. However, risks of renewed fighting persist.
Qatar led initial negotiations, resulting in Israel allowing minimal humanitarian access into Gaza while securing the freeing of detainees on both sides. Doha has spearheaded intensive follow-on talks over the past days as well to try to avoid collapse after delays held up subsequent phases. Meanwhile, Egypt has stepped up diplomatic engagement around enabling further hostage releases amid precarious negotiations. Controlling access to Gaza through the Rafah border crossing, Cairo has been working directly with Hamas and Israel on facilitating the hostage movements so far without major violence resuming.
The true extent of relief secured remains uncertain as alleged Israeli commitments seem limited — reportedly only halting air traffic over northern Gaza from 8am to 2pm each ceasefire day while the South of Gaza sees a full aerial bombing pause. Whether such commitments actually materialize amid profound distrust is questionable. The bare minimum reprieve if implemented will briefly delay rather than halt violence in the absence of political progress.
While securing some humanitarian relief, the deal remains fragile given the immense challenges ahead for more durable calm. The limited pact enables initial aid and fuel access to Gaza while releasing small batches of detainees — a partial concession neither side sees as adequate. Fundamental grievances around identity, disputed land and balancing asymmetric power persist. Without addressing these core issues, risks of new violence stay high, even if exhaustion brings periodic pauses.
Israel likely feels emboldened by unconditional US support to pursue expansive security goals. While the United States backs Israel's right to self-defence, this short-term truce will do little to resolve underlying disputes, especially given attitudes have hardened after years of violence. For Hamas, the limited 4-day reprieve does little to substantively improve Gaza's military and economic conditions, with a total blockade still firmly in place. Qatar's mediation has secured immediate needs, but the situation remains unstable at best.
Germany Ramps Up Aid to Reinforce Ukraine's Air Defences
Germany has unveiled a $1.4 billion military aid package for Ukraine, providing additional air defence systems, drones, artillery and 20,000 shells. This support comes as Germany leads a 20-nation coalition actively aiming to bolster Ukraine's dangerously inadequate air defences against intensifying and devastating Russian aerial bombardment targeting critical infrastructure. In this latest phase of fighting, Ukraine continues to struggle with sparse long-range systems, limited anti-drone defences, and insufficient stocks of ammunition that severely constrain its capacity to sustain high operational tempos.
As the coalition spearhead, Germany is coordinating directly with Poland, the Netherlands and Spain on air defence force generation, infrastructure connectivity and joint training efforts as part of demonstrating enduring solidarity. Integrating advanced NATO equipment poses interoperability hurdles for Ukraine, demanding complex modifications. Personnel face immense training demands to operate unfamiliar missile batteries. Unless the promised aid swiftly resolves these battle-defining integration shortfalls across technology transfer, maintenance, and operating capacity, sustaining external support grows uncertain amid the war's mounting costs. This binding coordination aims to exhibit deep institutionalization, helping reassure allies to stay the course in the war even if their governments or public opinion wavers over time and costs inevitably mount.
Europe's largest economy retains considerable financial and political capital to spearhead the coalition. Germany's rising defence provisions — which now include armoured vehicles, advanced air defence systems, and extensive weaponry — continue signalling staunch solidarity with Ukraine. Berlin has warned the coming months could prove decisive, underscoring the urgency of bolstering Ukraine's capacity now in order to repel Russian attacks with NATO-standard equipment as the conflict enters a new phase. However, with winter looming and territorial gains stalled, costs are accumulating, and the political will underpinning allied assistance could waver.
The possibility of territorial gains that don't decisively shift battlefield dynamics may further strain Ukraine's battered logistical networks if forces must push forward into heavily damaged infrastructure. In this latest phase of fighting, Ukraine continues to struggle with sparse long-range systems, limited anti-drone defences, and insufficient stocks of ammunition that severely constrain its capacity to sustain high operational tempos. Morale could also suffer without tangible cumulative progress after so many bloody months entrenched in frozen trenches. While the German-led air defence coalition effort is a part of prioritizing air defence reinforcement, profound questions loom around Ukraine's capacity to absorb, deploy and sustain modern systems effectively before political will for military aid frays among even firm backers. For now, Germany remains publicly committed.