In Geopolitics This Week
Zelenskyy Secures US Military Support in Washington Visit, Azerbaijan Boosts Domestic and Regional Influence, Turkey Demands More from Sweden in NATO Talks, and other stories.
Zelenskyy Secures US Military Support in Washington Visit
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left his besieged nation for the first time since the war began by taking an unannounced trip to Washington DC this week. During his visit, Zelenskyy met privately with President Biden, held a joint press conference at the White House, and made an impassioned request for continued assistance to a special joint session of Congress.
Even before Zelenskyy's visit, the United States announced that it will provide an additional $1.85 billion in military aid to Ukraine. The announced package includes approximately $1 billion in weapons and equipment from existing Pentagon stocks, including an entire Patriot battery. The remaining $850 million in funding will come from the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative.
Zelensky's journey to Washington DC began with an overnight train journey to Poland before he boarded a US Air Force plane. A US Air Force Boeing C-40B took off from Rzeszow airport in Poland with Zelenskyy aboard, reportedly supported by NATO surveillance aircraft and an F-15 fighter jet. While in Washington, Zelenksyy made statements which framed continued US military support for Ukraine as part of a worldwide struggle to defend democracy. Zelenksyy warned US lawmakers that it is “just a matter of time” until Russia will “strike against” other US allies.
Then on Friday, after Zelenskyy had already left Washington, the United States Congress passed a spending bill that includes a significant cash influx for the Defense Department. The Pentagon secured a 9% budget increase over fiscal 2022 and, crucially for Zelenskyy, billions in additional aid for Ukraine. The bill brings the total amount of emergency cash Congress has given the Pentagon for helping Ukraine to $61.4 billion since the war started in March, and the total amount of US military investments in Ukraine this year to over $100 billion.
Azerbaijan Boosts Domestic and Regional Influence
Azerbaijan has taken steps to strengthen its position against Armenia while also centralizing power on its own territories. Azerbaijan recently centralized power in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, a region physically separated from the rest of the country by a stretch of territory administered by Armenia.
The leader of Nakhchivan, Vasif Talibov, recently resigned from his position after 27 years of rule, effectively consolidating Baku's control over the region. In addition to transferring powers over security to the government in Baku, the federal government has also assumed the duties of border security for the region after dismantling the local customs committee.
There is speculation that Azerbaijan could soon revoke the region's autonomous status, though there is no evidence that such a process is formally underway. It is still unclear who will succeed Talibov and under what procedure, but it is likely to be someone similarly loyal to President Ilham Aliyev, who may strive to align the region more closely with the rest of Azerbaijan and potentially increase the country's control over the exclave.
At the same time, Baku is benfitting from a blockade taking place in the Lachin Corridor. The Lachin corridor is a mountain road that runs along a thin strip of land connecting Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. It is the only road between these two territories, and is often referred to as a “lifeline” for the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh. The corridor is currently under the control of a Russian peacekeeping force, as stipulated in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh armistice agreement.
This thin strip of land has now been blocked by activists for over a week, causing a potential humanitarian crisis for the population of Nagorno-Karabakh and a strategic crisis for both Armenia and Iran. Azerbaijan has denied blocking the strategic road, claiming that the protest was a spontaneous one held by environmental activists unaffiliated with the country. However, Yerevan maintains that Baku is enabling the blockade with false demonstrations.
The November 10, 2020 declaration states that Russian forces will “protect the route,” yet Russia has not given the region sufficient attention. Moscow, likely distracted by events in Ukraine, has failed to undertake the necessary steps to take control of matters on the ground or lay the groundwork to achieve any kind of lasting settlement. This encourages Baku to take matters into its own hands when seeking desired outcomes in the region.
Turkey Demands More from Sweden in NATO Talks
This week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu urged Sweden to take concrete steps to address groups that Turkey links to terrorism. Ankara argues that Sweden has not fulfilled the list of commitments needed to secure Turkey's approval for its accession to NATO.
Negotiations have been complicated by a recent decision of Sweden's Supreme Court which rejected the extradition of Bulent Kenes — an individual that Turkey has requested Sweden extradite in exchange for lifting its veto on Stockholm's accession to NATO. In a statement, the court cited several factors for blocking the handover, including the fact that the alleged crimes “are directed against the state and are political in nature” and that there is a risk of persecution due to the journalist's political views.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has said that the Court’s decision to reject the extradition of Kenes is a “very unfavourable development” that does not address Turkey’s security concerns. Turkish demands have been addressed through the signing of a trilateral memorandum of understanding at the NATO summit in June. In this document, Sweden and Finland promised to address Turkey's security concerns and lift their arms embargo against the country. Since then however, Turkey has delayed ratification, stating that the two countries still have a long way to go in implementing the three-page memorandum.
During a press conference in Ankara with his Swedish counterpart later in the week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu acknowledged that his government recognizes some “welcoming” steps taken by Sweden's new government. However, he cautioned that little progress has been made in areas that are crucial to Turkey, such as the freezing of assets and extradition of individuals charged with terrorism-related offenses.