In Geopolitics This Week
China's Shipbuilding Dominance Reshapes Global Trade, Haiti's Leadership Transition Unravels, Turkey and Iraq Align on PKK for Economic Integration Push, and other stories.
China's Shipbuilding Dominance Reshapes Global Trade
China's meteoric rise to dominance in the global shipbuilding industry has reshaped the landscape of maritime trade, challenging the long-standing supremacy of established maritime powers. In 2022, Chinese shipyards achieved a remarkable feat, constructing 47.3% of the world's ships, receiving 55.2% of new orders, and holding an impressive 49% of existing orders. This staggering market share eclipses the combined output of the United States, Japan, and South Korea, countries that once stood at the forefront of the shipbuilding sector.
The ability to construct, operate, and control commercial shipping fleets has emerged as a critical source of economic and geopolitical power in the modern era, with over 80% of world trade now carried by sea. China's state-backed shipbuilding giants have given Beijing an unprecedented level of leverage over global supply chains and maritime logistics. This concentration of power in the hands of a single nation has raised alarm, particularly the United States, which views China's growing influence in the shipbuilding sector as a direct threat to its own economic competitiveness. As China's shipyards churn out vessels at an astonishing pace, the potential for Beijing to exert control over the arteries of global trade has become a pressing concern for policymakers in Washington.
In response to China's growing dominance, a coalition of US labour unions this week took the step of filing a formal petition accusing China of distorting shipbuilding markets through unfair practices and anti-competitive behaviour. The unions argue that China's state-backed expansion, fuelled by subsidies and other forms of government support, has created an uneven playing field that threatens to undermine the viability of American shipyards. To level the playing field, the unions are calling for the imposition of penalties on Chinese-built ships entering US ports and for targeted investments to revitalize domestic shipbuilding facilities. This move reflects a growing recognition among key US stakeholders of the urgent need to counter China's influence in the shipbuilding sector and to protect the nation's manufacturing base.
The gradual decline of the once-dominant position in the global shipbuilding industry held by Europe and the United States over the course of the 20th century has paved the way for the rise of Asian competitors. In the immediate post-war decades, European shipyards managed to maintain a degree of influence. As the 20th century progressed, however, the dynamics of the shipping and shipbuilding sectors began to diverge. The shipping industry became increasingly globalized and stateless, with European capital and expertise continuing to play a significant role behind the scenes. In contrast, the shipbuilding industry witnessed a profound shift towards Asia, as state-backed enterprises leveraged lower costs and massive investments in capacity and technology to capture an ever-growing share of the global market.
As geopolitical tensions continue to mount, the future of shipbuilding has become linked to broader questions of economic competition and strategic influence. The United States and its allies now find themselves grappling with the formidable challenge of formulating an effective response to China's shipbuilding juggernaut. The shifting tides of global shipbuilding now represent a complex and multifaceted reality that will play a pivotal role in shaping the contours of power and influence in the coming decades.
Haiti's Leadership Transition Unravels
Haiti's unelected Prime Minister Ariel Henry has announced his intention to step down once a transitional council and interim replacement are appointed. Henry, who has led Haiti since the July 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, made the decision amid a surge in violent opposition from armed gangs, which have increasingly challenged the government's authority and control over the capital, Port-au-Prince. The deteriorating security situation prompted Henry to call for foreign intervention, with regional leaders, led by the United States and Caribbean Community (CARICOM), working to establish a transitional council.
However, attempts to install the new transitional government appear to be rapidly unravelling as various political factions reject the proposal. The proposed nine-member council has faced strident opposition from several prominent Haitian politicians and parties. Adding to the challenges, Haiti's most powerful gang leader has categorically rejected the foreign-backed transition plan, vowing to resist any external imposition of a political transition. He insisted that Haitians who remained in the country, rather than the traditional political class that had fled abroad, should be the ones making decisions about Haiti's future. Cherizier's gang alliance has been using control over key neighbourhoods and economic choke points to extract concessions and assert dominance.
The political deadlock, the failure to reach consensus on a way forward, and the opposition of powerful armed groups threaten to prolong the crisis and create a dangerous power vacuum. Haiti has faced an unrelenting cycle of elevated political turbulence and worsening violence since the assassination of President Moïse in July 2021, which plunged the country into a constitutional crisis. Under Henry's leadership, Haiti's already-fragile institutions have been further hollowed out, leaving the country without a functioning parliament or judiciary. The National Assembly has sat empty since January 2023 due to delayed elections, while the Supreme Court is not operational, leaving no effective checks on executive power.
Facing mounting challenges to his legitimacy on all fronts, Henry belatedly agreed on to initiate a political transition, just days before the transitional council was announced by CARICOM with US support. However, even if the interim body can be successfully constituted, Henry's successors will inherit a rapidly deteriorating security environment that will continue to severely hinder the government's ability to function and meet the basic needs of the population. The transitional council's efforts to organize the deployment of a UN-backed multinational security support (MSS) mission will likely run into steep operational and political obstacles, given the gangs' substantial control over key infrastructure, urban territory, and supply chains in the capital.
The proposed Kenya-led MSS mission, despite being authorized by the UN Security Council last October, has already faced multiple hurdles that have delayed its deployment indefinitely. Legal challenges in Kenyan courts, opposition from some Kenyan lawmakers, and concerns about the suitability of Kenyan police for the mission have all contributed to the impasse. Even if these issues can be overcome, the personnel currently envisioned would face daunting numerical and tactical constraints upon arrival in Haiti. Even a relatively well-resourced international security mission may only be able to achieve temporary and limited improvements in Haiti's security. Powerful gangs will almost certainly adapt their tactics and retain the capability to contest state authority and disrupt any foreign intervention.
Turkey and Iraq Align on PKK for Economic Integration Push
Turkey and Iraq held senior-level security talks in Baghdad this week, marking a significant step in the neighbours' efforts to bridge tensions and align their approach to combating the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The two sides discussed specific measures to crack down on PKK militants, though details of the agreed actions were not disclosed.
The PKK, designated as a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union, has long used the mountains of northern Iraq as a base for attacks on Turkey. Ankara's repeated cross-border military operations against the group have often strained ties with Baghdad, which has complained of violations of its sovereignty. High-level meetings between Baghdad and Ankara are aimed to address these grievances and explore avenues for enhanced cooperation. At the meeting, representatives agreed on moves that would more closely align Baghdad's stance with Ankara's, banning the PKK in Iraq as part of the agreement.
The rapprochement is driven by a convergence of economic and geopolitical interests. Turkey and Iraq are seeking to finalize a $17 billion deal to build a major trade route connecting Iraq's southern Basra province to Turkey and onward to Europe. The project, which would include high-speed rail lines, logistics hubs, and oil and gas pipelines, aims to provide an alternative corridor for trade between Asia and Europe, bypassing potential bottlenecks and geopolitical flashpoints.
For Ankara, the initiative offers a chance to reassert Turkey's regional clout and position itself as a key player in the evolving global trade landscape. It also allows Turkey to counter a rival route backed by the United Arab Emirates and Israel that would bypass Turkish territory, potentially diminishing its economic and strategic leverage. Iraq, for its part, sees the trade corridor as a vital lifeline for its battered economy, which has been hit hard by years of war, instability, and oil market volatility. By connecting its southern ports to the Turkish transport network and beyond, Iraq hopes to diversify its economic base, attract foreign investment, and create new opportunities for its growing population. The project also offers a chance to deepen Iraq's integration with regional and global markets.
Realizing this vision of economic integration hinges on increased security cooperation and a sustained crackdown on the PKK. Turkey is planning fresh military operations this summer targeting PKK strongholds in the western parts of Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region. The aim is to push the militants southward and secure the area for infrastructure construction related to the trade corridor project. While Baghdad has historically been wary of Turkish military incursions, there are signs of greater Iraqi support to the campaign this time around.
Monday, March 11th
Morocco Unveils Plan to Boost Green Hydrogen Development — Oil Price
Libyan Leaders Agree on Need for New Government — Middle East Eye
India Signs Free Trade Deal with EFTA Bloc — Al Jazeera
US and EU Coalitions Fend Off Saturated Drone Attack in Red Sea — The War Zone
Sudan's Army Rules Out Ramadan Truce — Africa News
Qosh Tepa Canal Project Deepens Central Asia's Water Woes — Jamestown
Tuesday, March 12th
Stranded Russian Crude Finds New Buyers as Sanctions Bite — Oil Price
Turkey, Iran, and Morocco Vie for Influence in Africa's Sahel — Al-Monitor
Haiti's Prime Minister to Resign Violence Surge — Reuters
US Special Forces Bolster Taiwan's Island Defences — Asia Times
Threats Loom Over Europe's Aluminium Industry — Metal Miner
France and Corsica Reach Deal on Island's Autonomy — France 24
Wednesday, March 13th
EU Approves €5 Billion Boost to Military Aid Fund — Reuters
Venezuela Closes Airspace to Argentine Planes — MercoPress
US and China Vie for Influence in Thailand's Space and Cyber Sectors — Asia Times
The Shifting Tides of Global Shipbuilding — Financial Times
Castex's Naval Theories Offer Insights for Smaller Powers — War on the Rocks
Turkey Eyes Summer Assault in Iraq to Secure Strategic Trade Corridor — Middle East Eye
Thursday, March 14th
US Launches B5+1 Initiative to Boost Ties with Central Asia — Eurasianet
Haiti's Leadership Transition Falters — AP News
Norway Advances North Sea Carbon Storage Project — Oil Price
Russian Enriched Uranium Exports to NATO Member States Continue — RUSI
Belarus Adopts Doctrine Emphasizing Tactical Nuclear Weapons — Jamestown
Organized Crime Thrives in Pacific Island Nations — APSI
Friday, March 15th
French Firm Wins €5.4 Billion Dutch Submarine Contract — NL Times
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Cripple Russian Refining Capacity — Oil Price
Houthis Threaten to Expand Attacks on Shipping — Al Jazeera
Overlapping Security Partnerships in China-US Competition — Foreign Affairs
Brazil and Argentina Agree to Open Skies — MercoPress
Austria's Neutrality Under Increased Scrutiny — Defense News
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