In Geopolitics This Week
Israel Prepares for an Invasion of Gaza, Balticconnector Gas Pipeline Shutdown Raises Security Concerns, France and Mongolia Forge Partnership in Uranium and Lithium Mining, and other stories.
Israel Prepares for an Invasion of Gaza
Israel now appears poised to launch a ground invasion of Gaza in retaliation for last week's attacks by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. After calling up a record number of reservists and enforcing a total blockade, the Israeli army has ordered the evacuation of the entire north half of Gaza, home to 1 million people. An invasion would mark a major escalation of the crisis but carries steep risks, including high casualties, igniting unrest in the West Bank, and forcing difficult choices on potentially re-occupying Gaza.
An Israeli ground incursion could have far-reaching consequences. Militarily, urban combat would likely prove costly for Israel despite its greater capabilities. Politically, the already weakened Netanyahu government could face further domestic pressure from the inevitable casualties. And diplomatically, Israeli hopes for near-term normalization with Saudi Arabia and with it a regional coalition aimed at containing Iran are diminishing. But domestic anger over the initial Hamas attack may still compel Netanyahu toward an invasion, regardless of the long-term risks. Much could hinge on whether Egypt's mediation succeeds in averting an escalation neither side can truly win.
An Israeli invasion of Gaza risks igniting wider regional instability as well. Hezbollah could be emboldened to open a northern front against Israel, forcing it to fight on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, significant Palestinian casualties may spark broader unrest and attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets across the Middle East and beyond. Containing the conflict's ripple effects will prove challenging amid already heated regional tensions. While the United States has fully backed Israel both politically and militarily, US officials have urged Israel to tread with caution.
The crisis lays bare the lack of progress on resolving core disputes underlying the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Absent political solutions, the cycle of violence seems destined to persist regardless of military outcomes. For Israel, de-grading Hamas capabilities through force alone remains unlikely. While militarily weakened, Hamas retains some deterrent capabilities and the ability to reconstitute. Gaza's immense civilian toll risks further radicalization as well. All sides face the complex challenge of de-escalating tensions that cannot be fully resolved through arms.
Balticconnector Gas Pipeline Shutdown Raises Security Concerns
Finland and Estonia announced the temporary shutdown of the undersea Balticconnector gas pipeline last weekend due to a suspected leak. The pipeline connects the two countries beneath the Baltic Sea. Gasgrid Finland and Elering, the Finnish and Estonian gas system operators, noticed an unusual drop in pressure in the pipeline, prompting them to halt gas flow. While the exact cause of the suspected leak remains unclear, both operators are jointly investigating the incident.
The implications of this incident go beyond the immediate technical disruption. Notably, this event recalls a similar incident in September 2022 when the Nord Stream gas pipelines, connecting Germany and Russia in the Baltic Sea, experienced explosions in acts of sabotage. This prior occurrence, where four gas leaks were identified, has unleashed a precedent that energy infrastructure is a valid target in the evolving tensions between NATO and Russia.
The sabotage of such critical energy assets could have far-reaching strategic implications, affecting energy security and political stability. Since 2022, Finland and Estonia have halted the import of Russian oil and gas in response to sanctions levelled against Moscow. The suspicion surrounding the Balticconnector pipeline shutdown raises questions about the potential motivations and culprits. Some speculate that this incident may be linked to Russia, seeking to disrupt European gas supplies as winter approaches. However, the exact attribution remains uncertain.
The potential foreign interference in critical infrastructure has prompted discussions at the NATO level. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary-General, expressed readiness to support allies and provide a “determined response” if the investigation uncovers deliberate sabotage by a hostile power. While military retaliation is improbable, potential responses could include expelling diplomats, imposing economic sanctions, or reinforcing military presence in the region to deter further hostile actions.
France and Mongolia Forge Partnership in Uranium and Lithium Mining
In a significant development, France and Mongolia have inked a 1.6 billion euro ($1.7 billion) agreement, facilitating the mining of uranium in Mongolia by French companies. This framework deal allows French nuclear firm Orano to operate the Zuuvch-Ovoo mine in southwestern Mongolia. Alongside uranium mining, both nations have also committed to collaborating on lithium exploration using satellite technology. This partnership marks a pivotal move in Mongolia's efforts to diversify its diplomatic relationships, while France broadens its sources of uranium.
The strategic implications of this partnership are far-reaching. For Mongolia, it signifies a crucial alliance with France, offering a delicate balance in its ties with both China and Russia. Mongolia's “Third Neighbour” policy is underlined by the need to reduce dependence on its powerful neighbours. For France, this collaboration mitigates concerns over the reliance on a handful of major uranium producers, such as Kazakhstan. Furthermore, the broader cooperation between the two nations in the mining and clean energy sectors reinforces their ties. However, local sentiment regarding foreign mining ventures may still pose some operational challenges in the future.
As this partnership between France and Mongolia unfolds, it has the potential to reshape the dynamics of resource supply. The agreement outlines plans for Orano to commence construction around 2024 and initiate uranium production in 2028, with substantial investment expected to be primarily of French origin. The fact that the French and Mongolian presidents personally endorsed this venture underlines its political significance. The mutual cooperation doesn't stop at uranium; it extends to searching for lithium, a valuable resource for France's electric vehicle manufacturing industry.
The signing of this agreement also mirrors broader French interests in securing raw material supplies. The French government sees the Orano project as a means to reduce dependency on a limited number of providers and enhance its strategic autonomy. The partnership between France and Mongolia aligns with both countries' transitions to renewable energies. This deal is illustrative of the growing trend of countries seeking to diversify their sources of critical minerals and resources in an era of fast-evolving international relations.