In Geopolitics This Week
Operation Prosperity Guardian Strikes Houthis in Yemen, State of Emergency Declared in Ecuador, Somalia and Somaliland Lock Horns Over Port Deal With Ethiopia, and other stories.
Operation Prosperity Guardian Strikes Houthis in Yemen
The United States and its allies conducted a series of strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen this week, citing collective self-defence against Houthi maritime actions against commercial shipping. Over 100 precision missiles from ships and aircraft struck radars, drone infrastructure, and weapons storage facilities in Yemen with the stated aim of protecting freedom of navigation through the Red Sea corridor. However, the strikes spark questions around unanticipated ripple effects in an already volatile region.
The strikes’ success in degrading key weapons systems may slowly alter internal calculations, constraining the Houthis’ practical capacity to extract concessions through continued shows of direct force. This shift could strengthen the argument that some Houthi factions have miscalculated by inviting foreign intervention, motivating them to pursue negotiations more actively to achieve the movement's political objectives. However, the strikes risk bolstering the Houthis’ domestic and regional support against Western military intervention. By rallying public opinion against external powers, the raid’s symbolic impact could harden attitudes among the movement’s most militant factions while undermining any willingness for pragmatic compromise among the Houthi leadership.
Iran, a steadfast ally of the Houthis, so far appears reluctant to overtly retaliate in ways that could permanently jeopardize its fragile diplomatic normalization process with key Gulf rivals, many of which have also remained cautious. However, if the US and its allies opt to undertake a prolonged military campaign against the Houthis, Iran may respond by dialling up aggression levels elsewhere in the region regardless of potential impacts on rapprochement talks. This escalation could manifest through increased lethal support to other regional proxy groups, more direct cyber warfare, or covert operations that threaten Western forces stationed across the Middle East.
By opting to undertake direct strikes on Yemeni soil, the US and its allies now threaten to commit their forces deeper into a complex civil war driven by competing local interests and tribal power dynamics that external powers have struggled to accurately assess or influence. This risks the overextension of military assets and political capital required to manage other regional flashpoints. If strikes are prolonged and result in unchecked loss of life, Yemeni public outrage could also empower efforts by Houthi factions and other militant groups in the region to asymmetrically retaliate. This could undermine support within regional governments for continued US-led interventions.
State of Emergency Declared in Ecuador
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has declared a 60-day nationwide state of emergency, authorizing military deployment after a wave of violence perpetrated by militant groups. Attacks hit targets ranging from prisons to a television station and university campus. Noboa labeled over 20 transnational crime rings as terrorist groups and combatants, paving the way for an expansive crackdown.
The declaration of a state of emergency represents a pivotal escalation in the government’s faltering battle against powerful organized crime groups that have steadily expanded their reach across Ecuador over recent years. The harsh emergency measures aim to quell mounting chaos but carry substantial risks of further fuelling cycles of violence if security operations are perceived within local communities as excessively repressive or indiscriminate.
President Noboa’s emergency declaration comes in direct response to severe outbreaks of coordinated gang attacks and chaotic prison riots across multiple Ecuadorian cities this week, overwhelming the capabilities of civilian law enforcement. However, serious constraints like limited public security resources and personnel suggest the state will continue facing immense difficulties in fully neutralizing the diverse array of threats posed by militant groups even with expanded policing powers.
Beyond challenges in restoring order, even greater economic and political risks loom for Ecuador, as militarized anti-crime operations are set to disrupt and delay lawful commercial activities like cargo transit and energy production. With national elections also approaching, the Noboa administration’s failure to achieve clear demonstrable progress containing bloodshed within cities is likely to steadily erode political unity among a fragile legislative coalition whose support remains essential for advancing difficult economic reforms.
The situation now confronting Ecuadorian stability mirrors sustained crises in neighbouring countries like Mexico and Guatemala also wrestling with entrenched cultures of criminal impunity reinforced by weak and under-resourced state structures. However, the operational ties between the leaders of Ecuadorian and Colombian militant groups raise the chances of an escalatory spillover and regional destabilization. The pressure of rapidly increased offers of external security assistance is likely to grow, raising questions over notions of Ecuadorian sovereignty and autonomy.
Somalia and Somaliland Lock Horns Over Port Deal With Ethiopia
Somalia has swiftly enacted legislation staking its legal claim over Somaliland after last week's disputed Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal. Mogadishu has also worked to secure support from regional allies Egypt and Eritrea against the agreement. However, Ethiopia remains defiant. Its military chief provocatively met with Somaliland officials in Addis Ababa to launch defence cooperation, disregarding Somalia's demands to tear up the deal.
For Somaliland, achieving acknowledgment of its sovereignty on the global stage with the support of a weighty regional power like Ethiopia fulfils a central aspiration animating its foreign policy since breaking away from Somalia proper in 1991. However, for the federal government of Somalia centred in Mogadishu, the deal constitutes an existential affront to its territorial integrity and national unity given multiple provinces with active secessionist movements. These intensely asymmetric reactions set the stage for the rapid escalation witnessed this past week.
Faced with what it perceives to be a legitimate threat against its sovereignty by a rival power, Somalia has moved swiftly to enact urgent legislation explicitly proclaiming its legal dominion over all land and maritime territory currently occupied by Somaliland. This forceful assertion of rights by Mogadishu intends to counteract any credibility bestowed by the port deal toward legitimizing Somaliland’s independence. Augmenting its legal assertions of sovereignty, Somalia has also focused diplomatic energy on actively courting military backing and security guarantees from allies like Egypt and Eritrea.
This clear signalling of alignment with foreign powers who maintain antagonistic relations toward Ethiopia suggests Somalia is demonstrating a genuine willingness to confront rival strategic interests that emerge in support of implementing the deal. However, Ethiopia remains defiant in the face of opposition. The fact that Ethiopia appears unfazed to advance military ties with Somaliland despite fierce domestic opposition to the deal and forceful rejections of the pact’s legality from the Somali government signals resolve to implement the full parameters of the agreement.