In Geopolitics This Week
UK Agrees Strategic Partnership with Israel, Tensions Rise as Military Posturing Over Ukraine Continues, China Engaged in a Standoff with Indonesia Over Drilling Rights, and other stories.
Monday, November 29th
UK Agrees Strategic Partnership with Israel
The UK and Israel have entered into a decade-long strategic partnership. Boris Johnson lit a menorah at Downing Street to mark the second night of Chanukah after a set of meetings in which Israeli Foreign Minister Lapid and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss signed a new agreement for a Strategic Partnership in trade and defence between the two countries. The Israeli delegation came just as talks over Iran’s nuclear program are set to resume in Vienna, where the UK will be present in negotiations as a signatory to the JCPOA. The memorandum of understanding signed between the UK and Israel will translate to closer cooperation on cybersecurity, technology development, defence, trade and science, and will see the two coordinate their political positions on Iran.
Israel and the UK have long been close partners. The two countries enjoy a trading relationship worth an estimated £5 billion, with particularly close economic ties in the aviation and pharmaceutical industries: the UK’s Rolls-Royce supplies jet engines which power the airplanes flying for Israeli airlines, and Israeli pharmaceutical company Teva is a major provider of medicines for the NHS. But as the UK’s Foreign Secretary has prioritised economic diplomacy in her approach to reshape the UK’s foreign policy, securing a wide-ranging 10-year deal will form a part of this process as the UK continues to establish bilateral ties with allies following the country's exit from the European Union. As such, the deal marks a deepening of existing ties in areas where the two already closely cooperate. Cyber and tech will likely form the bulk of this new level of cooperation, with a political deal regarding Iran to be agreed outside the scope of the memorandum.
Prior to their meeting, the UK made a gesture of support for Israeli interests when Home Secretary Priti Patel announced her intention to declare every branch of the Palestinian militant group Hamas as a terrorist organisation under the UK’s Terrorism Act. Israeli interests were taken in mind during the meeting too, as Lapid and Truss released a statement affirming a commitment by both powers to remain vigilant on the issue of Iran. They stressed that both countries will work “night and day” in order to stop Iran’s nuclear development and its regional ambitions. Beyond the UK’s support of Israel’s position regarding Iran, the two agreed to begin talks on a trade deal sometime early next year.
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Barbados Ditches the Monarchy to Become a Republic
Barbados, an island nation in the Lesser Antilles of the West Indies, is transforming into a parliamentary republic. After the first English colonial settlement was built in Jamestown in the year 1627, Barbados remained a British colony for over 300 years before claiming its independence in 1966. Now, Barbadians will no longer have Queen Elizabeth II as their head of state as the country transitions into a parliamentary republic with a new ceremonial president — Dame Sandra Mason. Prime Minister Mia Mottley, who has declared that Barbados must leave behind its colonial past, and has worked tirelessly to achieve this constitutional reform, will stay on in her role as prime minister.
Barbados is the fourth Caribbean nation in the Commonwealth to remove the Queen as the constitutional head of state, joining Guyana (1970), Trinidad and Tobago (1976), and Dominica (1978) in doing so. Adopting a republican constitution has been a longstanding issue in local politics, and rests on a broad consensus among the population in support of cutting off colonial-era ties. Mottley said last month that the time has come for Barbados to express “full confidence in ourselves as a people” as she outlined her approach for constitutional change in a two-step process. First, the country will proceed with the establishment of a republic and carry out associated constitutional changes. Second, the new republic will undertake reforms pertaining to rights, the existing relationship between the executive and legislative branches of government, as well as the reform of the judiciary.
But while the transition to a republic will be a formal separation from the UK, Barbados will remain a part of the Commonwealth of Nations, and officials from both Barbados and the UK have expressed a joint desire to maintain close bilateral ties going forward. In particular, the two continually express an interest in collaboration on climate change, energy, and security. And while the Queen is no longer the head of state of Barbados, the shift to a republic will not change the status of the country within the Commonwealth, of which the Queen is still the Head. Nevertheless, the move marks a step towards increased independence for Barbados and a clear boost to the island nation’s sovereignty.
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Tuesday, November 30th
US Global Force Posture to Remain Largely Unchanged
After a nine-month review of the way US military forces are deployed around the world, the Pentagon has concluded its latest Global Posture Review (GPR). This most recent iteration of the document comes before a new National Defense Strategy is set to be drafted by the Biden administration in 2022, and offers a glimpse into long-term US military posturing across the globe. But rather than a large shift in resources, the review concluded that no major strategic changes are needed. While the summary of the GPR released by the Pentagon assesses the priority areas for US deployments of military personnel, the review does not mention the future posture of space, cyber or nuclear capabilities, and so is only applicable to conventional US forces stationed abroad.
The summary underlined the Indo-Pacific region as the priority theatre for US forces going forward. China was acknowledged as the pacing challenge, and the GPR calls for drastic infrastructure improvements in the region which prioritize the construction of military facilities. This would see the US military invest in logistics, fuel and munition storage facilities, as well as airfield upgrades in Guam, Australia and the Northern Mariana Islands. Moreover, the GPR stipulates that an attack helicopter squadron and an artillery division headquarters will be permanently stationed in the South Korea. Surprisingly, the report made no indication that bolstering US positions in the Indo-Pacific will come at the cost of permanent deployments elsewhere as forces in other regions are largely staying put.
As the guidance asserts an approach which emphasizes diplomacy in a bid to strengthen the country’s network of allies, the GPR leaves the posture of US forces in the Middle East and Europe largely unchanged. In Europe, the summary outlines the goal of cultivating greater cooperation between NATO forces in order to strengthen a “combat-credible deterrent” against Russia. In the Middle East, the review promises to strengthen missile defence capabilities while continuing counter-terrorist operations in both Iraq and Syria. The review indicates that despite rumours of a potential withdrawal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, Washington will remain an active player in the region while a more thorough analysis of posture requirements for the region is being conducted.
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Germany Quietly Urges the US Not to Sanction Nord Stream 2
Germany is urging members of the United States Congress not to apply sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. At a time of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and as the situation on the border between the two continues to raise fears of a wider military conflict, the new German government has reportedly warned members of Congress in the US that sanctions on the pipeline could damage transatlantic relations. But since the pipeline promises to bypass the energy transit infrastructure of Ukraine, Kiev considers the project an existential threat to its security. This puts the US in a difficult position, as it attempts to bolster ties with allies while also reassuring officials in Kiev of steadfast support against Russia.
According to reports published by Axios, Germany has been quietly urging the United States not to sanction the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The report details warnings sent to members of US Congress that a reimposition of sanctions by the Biden administration would weaken the credibility of the US while also damaging transatlantic unity. German officials are reported to have said that the Russia-to-Germany natural gas pipeline does not pose harm to Ukraine, and that Berlin has taken the appropriate steps to ensure that greenlighting the pipeline would not pose a threat to Kiev. Moreover, German officials argue that — despite the warnings of US officials — granting certification to Nord Stream 2 will not put European or German energy security at risk.
The German plea comes at a time when some US Senate Republicans, dissatisfied with the approach of the Biden administration on the matter, are calling for a new round of sanctions in an amendment to the upcoming annual defence bill. While the certification process prevents the pipeline from starting operations, the suspension could be short-lived due to Europe’s low reserves of energy. As temperatures fall across Europe, some countries in the EU may be eager to tap into Russian gas supplies, adding an element of pressure to the matter of certifying the pipeline that goes beyond Berlin. Nevertheless, the pipeline would almost certainly mean Ukrainian transit infrastructure would be, in whole or in part, circumvented, thereby eliminating one of the last remaining bargaining chips Kiev possesses against Russia. For US policymakers, the pressure to preserve positive ties with Berlin while simultaneously standing up for Kiev's interests therefore poses something of a challenge.
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Wednesday, December 1st
Tensions Rise as Military Posturing Over Ukraine Continues
As members of NATO meet in Riga, Latvia, a war of words is developing involving the key players in the ongoing crisis in Ukraine. While a 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany has helped end large-scale battles in Ukraine’s east, efforts to reach a political settlement have failed again and again, with sporadic skirmishes still a common sight along the line of contact. As both Kiev and Moscow fail to reach any form of agreement, and both continue to build-up a military presence along their shared border, tensions are reaching a boiling point. Russia has mobilised a considerable force on its border with Ukraine and condemned the delivery of weapons by some NATO countries to Ukraine, while Ukraine has called on NATO to prepare a harsh set of sanctions as a deterrent to Russia’s troop movements.
With NATO leaders reiterating their support for Ukraine, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine was a red line for Moscow. Putin emphasised that he is seeking “reliable and long-term security guarantees” which will prevent any further deployment of NATO weapons near Russia’s borders in addition to Russia’s longstanding opposition to the accession of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO. Moreover, Putin also warned that Russia would respond in kind if NATO deployed missiles in Ukraine capable of striking Moscow. The Russian position was reiterated when diplomats from the US and Russia met after the NATO summit in Riga wrapped up, but since then US President Biden has rebuffed any “red lines” proposed by Russia.
Ukraine is in a difficult position amidst this latest bout of military posturing and rhetoric. Given the country is not a member of NATO, the proclamations of support coming from NATO member states mean little in the event of an armed Russian incursion into its territory. NATO members would not be obligated to defend Ukraine, and may not even be able to provide the country with any substantial military support in time to make a difference against Russian forces. As such, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called on NATO to put together a “deterrence package” of sanctions and called for increased NATO military cooperation with Ukraine as a means to deter Moscow. As troop numbers surge, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stressed that Ukraine can be protected only by a strong, powerful national army. While an imminent Russian incursion is not a foregone conclusion, the reality on the ground points to further escalation in the weeks ahead.
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Views from China Regarding the Issue of Taiwan
The relationship between China, Taiwan, and the United States is the most sensitive and volatile issue in Sino-American relations today. For decades, stability in the relationship has mostly been based on an understanding reached between Beijing and Washington when the two normalised ties in 1979, and has since hinged on a US affirmation for the One China viewpoint. But since then, severe tensions over Taiwan have emerged at various times. These episodes of increased tensions have largely been the result of unilateral actions taken by one side which were then interpreted by the other as a violation of this understanding. Now, Sino-American tensions over Taiwan are at unprecedented levels in recent years, and the relationship between Washington and Beijing is increasingly marked by larger-scale military activities, US signals of support for Taiwan, and ominous exchanges of confrontational rhetoric.
With Chinese views on the issue rarely discussed, taking a closer look at statements made by Chinese officials on the Taiwan issue may shed light on Beijing’s calculus. Upon closer inspection, statements regarding China’s stance toward Taiwan have been more or less consistent up to the present day. According to many statements released by Chinese officials, to achieve reunification with Taiwan via peaceful means would be the preferable outcome and in the overall interests of China. Yet while statements made on the key elements of policy toward Taiwan display consistency over time, new features have emerged since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012. Xi has chosen to apply an association between the idea of national rejuvenation and his championed China Dream development plan which is to be achieved by the year 2049. However, it remains unclear whether reunification with Taiwan is truly viewed as a goal to be completed by 2049, or if instead the statements merely allude to an aspiration.
To policymakers in Beijing, the growing tensions over Taiwan appear to be the result of moves made by the government in Taipei, which in their view increasingly contradict the One China perspective. Moreover, statements released by Chinese officials often explain Taipei’s moves away from Beijing as a consequence of increased multifaceted US support for Taiwan. While China’s policy approach to Taiwan has changed little over time, many officials nonetheless regard the current situation as dangerous and precarious, and one which requires increased deterrence efforts by Beijing against both Taipei and Washington. Since a similar view can be seen in Washington, the odds of a deterrence-driven escalation by both sides is on the rise even if both Washington and Beijing continue to express support for a peaceful resolution to the issue.
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Thursday, December 2nd
China Engaged in a Standoff with Indonesia Over Drilling Rights
China and Indonesia have been engaged in a standoff over an oil rig planted in a part of the South China Sea which both countries claim as their own. In recent years, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam have all come under Chinese pressure to end energy development projects in areas of the South China Sea claimed by Beijing. Yet for a long time, Indonesia has avoided any such conflict with China. But given that Indonesia has not overtly conflicted with China’s far-reaching maritime claims until now, reports of the standoff may be a sign of a growing diplomatic spat between Beijing and Jakarta over claims in the South China Sea.
The standoff is said to have begun sometime in late June when a semi-submersible Indonesian rig arrived on the scene and begin drilling two wells approximately 140 nautical miles north of Indonesia’s Great Natuna Island. According to reports, China has instructed the Indonesian government to cease drilling operations for oil and natural gas here on the grounds that the region was Chinese territory. In response to continued drilling operations, China sent a military vessel to patrol in the vicinity of the rig, thereby reminding Jakarta of its nine-dash line claim to the South China Sea. But Indonesia, a country with close economic ties to China, has not yet ceded ground on the issue, and has sent military vessels of its own to tail Chinese vessels patrolling the area.
The move suggests that China is determined to press its sovereignty claims in far-flung areas of the South China Sea, even if such moves risk souring relations with Southeast Asian partners. Beijing has been making frequent incursions into Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), incursions which have prompted the Indonesian government to bolster its military presence on Great Natuna Island. If the reports are true, Indonesia finds itself in a difficult position. Considering that China is Indonesia’s largest trade partner, and that investments under the Belt and Road Initiative have significantly boosted economic activity in the country, Jakarta must approach these incursions by China with a delicate hand. So far, officials in Jakarta have not raised alarm over Chinese activities, but it may not remain that way for long if keeping the issue of out the limelight means ceding sovereignty of its EEZ bit by bit to Beijing.
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Outside Powers Contend for the Future of Libya
More than a decade after the overthrow and death of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya remains fragmented as conflict between various local warlords, internationally-backed mercenaries, and foreign forces continue across the country’s eastern and western regions. But with the military situation in the country now at something of a stalemate following Turkey’s intervention in 2019, both local and international forces are attempting to facilitate presidential elections at the end of this year. Yet with the country deeply divided, and with international power brokers casting a large shadow over the entire electoral process, the promise of a stable Libyan state structured in the interests of the Libyan people seems far-fetched.
As the choice of candidates is largely in the hands of outside powers, there remains considerable doubt the election will solve the chaos that has consumed the country since the 2011 UN-mandated intervention. After all, holding elections while foreign fighters continue to clash on behalf differing foreign interests is deeply problematic for the stability of the country going forward. Nevertheless, there is a drive to install a much-needed set of political institutions even if the candidates are being cherry-picked by those best positioned to influence matters on the ground. For the moment, the leading candidates for the presidency are Saif Gaddafi, General Haftar, Fathi Bashagha, Ali Zeidan, Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah and Aguila Saleh.
But because every single candidate has been accused of corruption or war crimes at various times in the past decade, the UN may choose to block any or all of these candidates. The UN is overseeing the election process and is considered a legitimate mediating force which is attuned to the interests of its major contributors. In effect, the UN appears to have a veto on any candidate that might prove disruptive. There have already been local complaints that the UN is seeking to block any presidential candidate unwilling to cooperate on terms acceptable to foreign powers. Moreover, there seems to be no consensus about the kind of powers that will be bestowed on the presidency. Nevertheless, the UN appears to be determined to go ahead with the elections despite these challenges, even if the outcome may prove unpopular with most Libyans.
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Friday, December 3rd
UAE & France Sign Multiple Agreements
France and the United Arab Emirates have signed multiple deals worth roughly $18 billion. The deals signed cover the delivery of 80 Rafale F4 warplanes manufactured by the French company Dassault Aviation. Outside of the French armed forces, this is the most significant order of the warplane by any customer, and will further strengthen the strategic partnership between the two countries. France enjoys a very close relationship with the UAE, operating a large naval base in the Gulf country on top of a major military facility just outside Abu Dhabi which houses French warplanes and personnel.
Both countries remain mistrustful of Islamist political parties across the Middle East, so the signed deals will work to further bolster the bilateral relationship beyond just the transfer of arms, and into areas where the interests of both countries align. Both back the same side in Libya’s civil war, both remain concerned about Turkey’s growing power in the region, and the current leadership in Abu Dhabi and Paris also enjoy a good personal relationship as they continue to facilitate two-way investments. The deals signed also work to expand their relationship toward increased military alignment. By selling advanced fighters and helicopters to the UAE, France hopes to not only find an eager buyer for its defence equipment, but also to facilitate closer military ties by sharing similar defence equipment which will work to promote “operational cooperation” between their armed forces. To the UAE, advanced military equipment from France will allow for greater power projection in its region, allowing the country more leeway in influencing matters on the ground in a tumultuous region.
France is looking to offset the losses emanating from the now scrapped $66bn contract to build 12 submarines for Australia, so these deals with the UAE come as a huge boost to the French defence industry. French Defence Minister, Florence Parly, has called the deals a “historic contract” between the two countries, a cooperative framework which will directly contribute to “regional stability.” French manufacturer Dassault Aviation, which builds the Rafale F4 making up the bulk of the value in these deals, has revealed that the UAE will be receiving an upgraded F4 version of its multirole combat aircraft, making the Emirates Air Force the first country besides France to have access to the Rafale F4. But delivery of the aircraft will take time as the F4 Rafale still remains under development, with Abu Dhabi expected to receive its first batch sometime in 2027.
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Lithuanian Goods Stuck in Chinese Ports
Lithuania has issued a complaint that China has delisted the country in its ports and is refusing all import applications. Ties between the two countries have been particularly rattled by Lithuania’s announcement in July to accept a request from Taipei to open a Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius. In doing so, Lithuania has severely angered China, with China’s foreign ministry accusing Lithuania of crossing a “red line” as Beijing urged for immediate rectification of the issue by ceasing diplomatic contacts with officials in Taipei. But Lithuania has not backed down, and, with assistance and backing from the United States, continues to champion strong resistance to Beijing’s influence within the EU.
Following Lithuania’s decision to allow Taiwanese representatives to open an office in Vilnius, China reacted with furore, and has hit back by both lowering its diplomatic relations and suspending consular services with the country. Since then, ties between the two have only deteriorated further. Lithuania has enraged China by advising its government officials to cease the use of Chinese-made phones, by cosying up to Taiwanese officials, and by quitting a Chinese-led European forum. In response, Beijing has recalled its ambassador, halted Chinese cargo trains going into the country and has made it more difficult for Lithuanian exporters to sell their goods on the Chinese market. While Lithuania is a rather meek adversary for China, the country has geopolitical significance as a transit corridor for trains carrying goods from China to the European market, which forms a part of the reason why the country enjoys strong backing from the United States as Washington seeks opportunities to check Beijing’s growing power.
The Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, recently visited Washington where he met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who pledged “ironclad” support for Lithuania against China. Because Lithuania’s defence is entirely dependent on US security guarantees, Lithuanian alignment with the US on policies seeking to check China’s power are not entirely surprising given a pro-American conservative party is in power in Vilnius. Responding to Beijing’s latest move to blacklist imports from Lithuania, Landsbergis condemned the “unannounced sanctions,” and said his country would seek further assistance from the European Commission. The Commission has responded by stating that it is in close contact with Vilnius as well as EU representatives in Beijing to clarify the issue, but no decision on how to respond has been made thus far.
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