In Geopolitics This Week
Niger Suspends Military Pact with the United States, Israeli Settlers Rapidly Expand West Bank Presence Amid Gaza Conflict, US Backs India in Arunachal Pradesh Dispute with China, and other stories.
Niger Suspends Military Pact with the United States
In a shift with potentially far-reaching implications, Niger's ruling military council announced the immediate suspension of its longstanding defence cooperation agreement with the United States. The 2012 pact has been a foundational framework for the US military presence in the West African nation. However, the future of this arrangement is now in doubt following a contentious meeting between Niger’s leadership and a high-level US delegation.
Niger has long been a linchpin of the US counterterrorism architecture in Africa's Sahel region, hosting over 1,000 US troops and contractors at two key bases: an airfield in the capital, Niamey, and the recently constructed Air Base 201 near the northern city of Agadez. These facilities have served as critical hubs for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations, as well as occasional drone strikes, targeting the patchwork of armed groups operating in the region. However, the military coup that overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023 had already put this collaboration on hold. In justifying the decision to repudiate the defence pact, spokesman Colonel Amadou Abdramane framed it as a reassertion of Niger's sovereign right to determine its own alliances and foreign policy orientation.
The move is emblematic of geopolitical shifts in the western Sahel, as Niger's military authorities align themselves more firmly with the like-minded regimes holding power in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso. This nascent bloc, born of a recent spate of coups, has sought to reduce long-standing military ties with Western powers, especially France, the former colonial power that has maintained a dominant security posture in the region over the past decade. Paris has been increasingly viewed as an unwelcome foreign presence, with Niger's junta expelling French troops and ambassador. In their place, these countries have pursued alternative security arrangements, particularly with Russia, whose mercenaries are already operating in Mali with the consent of the authorities there.
The practical implications of Niger's bombshell remain uncertain, as US officials scramble to decipher mixed signals from their Nigerien counterparts. While an immediate eviction of US forces does not appear to be on the table, the suspension of the legal framework underpinning their presence casts serious doubt on the sustainability of their mission. A complete rupture of the partnership would mark a major setback for US strategic interests in the region, so the United States still has interest in working out a solution with Niger's new government. But with Niger's status now in flux, Washington is scouting fallback options to preserve some operational capability, including outreach to coastal West African states about the possibility of hosting new US surveillance facilities.
The decline of Western influence is a consequence of the complex interplay of internal stresses and external pressures that have brought the Sahel to a tipping point. Popular anger at corruption and economic stagnation, perceptions of heavy-handed foreign influence, and disillusionment with counterterrorism-driven policies, have all propelled an increasingly fluid and fragmented regional order. As old power structures crumble and new forces jockey for influence, the region finds itself at a crossroads between the colonial era and the uncharted terrain of a more multipolar international landscape.
Israeli Settlers Rapidly Expand West Bank Presence Amid Gaza Conflict
Israeli settlers have dramatically escalated their activities in the occupied West Bank since the outbreak of the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict in October 2023, forcing over 1,200 Palestinians from their homes in just four months. Satellite imagery reveals an unprecedented wave of land grabs and construction, with settlers establishing at least 15 illegal outposts, 18 roads, and numerous fences and roadblocks, leading to the disintegration of 15 Palestinian communities.
More than 40 percent of the West Bank is now under the direct control of Israeli settlers, and more than half-a-million Jewish residents now live in the West Bank. The Israeli government employs incentive programs aimed at relocating Jewish residents into West Bank settlements. These settlements, numbering over 200 along with unofficial outposts, have resulted in the fragmentation of Palestinian territory and the displacement of Palestinians. The Israeli Housing Ministry has even initiated schemes offering subsidized flats in the West Bank, utilizing a lottery system for allocation. The current scale and geographic spread of the outposts suggest a bolder approach aimed at fundamentally reshaping the West Bank's demographic reality and undermining the viability of a future Palestinian state.
Despite the illegality of these outposts under international law, and even Israeli law, successive Israeli governments have nonetheless enabled their growth through a combination of retroactive approval, military support, and a persistent failure to enforce their removal. The Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced the seizure of 10 square kilometres of Palestinian land, the largest such confiscation since the 1993 Oslo Accords. This latest land grab will divide the northern and southern West Bank, sever vital trade links, and imperil the prospects for a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem — dealing a fatal blow to a two-state solution.
The expansion of settlements just as Israeli forces conduct an invasion of Gaza is a culmination of a relentless, decades-long erosion of Palestinian territorial integrity. While outside powers and international institutions have long condemned settlement activities as a violation of international law and an obstacle to peace, decisive action to halt their growth has not materialized. As Palestinian land and access to it continue to shrink under the weight of state-backed land theft, hopes for a lasting resolution to the conflict are remote. The settler movement's success in exploiting the fog of war should serve as an urgent wake-up call for any power still committed to salvaging Palestinian statehood.
US Backs India in Arunachal Pradesh Dispute with China
The United States has thrust itself into the centre of the long-simmering border dispute between India and China with its unequivocal recognition of the contested region of Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory. The declaration represents a departure from Washington's traditional policy of neutrality on the issue, and drew a swift and sharp rebuke from Beijing. The decision threatens the progress made by both China and India over many consecutive rounds of talks, which culminated in a rare joint statement last year.
The US decision to actively side with India is a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics between China and India, with potentially far-reaching implications for the complex triangular relationship between Washington, Beijing, and New Delhi. By openly challenging China's territorial claims and explicitly backing India's position, the US has effectively inserted itself into a previously bilateral border dispute and raised the stakes for all parties involved. This move is a departure from the US's traditional stance of strategic ambiguity on the issue and signals a growing willingness to openly confront China, even at the risk of undermining stability. This is likely to trigger a series of second-order effects that could reshape the strategic calculus and behaviour of all three powers.
For India, the unequivocal backing of the world's pre-eminent superpower could provide a significant boost to its bargaining position and embolden it to take a harder line in its territorial negotiations with China. The diplomatic and potentially military support of the US could lead India to adopt a more assertive posture and be less willing to compromise or back down in the face of Chinese pressure. However, this newfound confidence could also lead to a false sense of security and a temptation to overplay its hand, potentially leading to miscalculation, provocation, or escalation if not carefully managed.
China, for its part, is likely to view the US move as a direct affront to its core national interests and territorial integrity. Beijing has long claimed Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers to as South Tibet, and has consistently rejected any third-party involvement in what it considers to be a purely bilateral dispute with India. The US intervention, in this context, will be seen as a further indication of Washington's intent to contain China, challenge its territorial claims, and undermine its regional influence. This perception is likely to lead to a significant hardening of China's position on the dispute and a doubling down on its efforts to assert control over the contested territory.
For the United States, the decision to intervene in the dispute carries both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, it demonstrates commitment to India and its willingness to champion the claims of local powers, even on issues that do not directly affect its own security interests. By backing India, the US offers a strategic counterweight to China and deepens its growing defence and security ties with New Delhi. However, the move also commits the US into a land dispute in which it has no direct stake, and in a region where its own military capabilities are relatively limited.
Monday, March 18th
EU and Egypt Sign €7.4 Billion Strategic Partnership Deal — France 24
India and China's Multifaceted Engagement with the Gulf — Modern Diplomacy
Putin Secures Another Term as Russian President — Stratfor
ADNOC Signs 15-Year LNG Supply Agreement with Germany's Sefe — Oil Price
Niger Suspends Military Agreement with the US — Financial Times
Countries Expand Footprint in Antarctica — Foreign Affairs
Tuesday, March 19th
Armenia Signals Willingness to Cede Villages to Azerbaijan — Eurasianet
New Catalyst Turns Sewage into Hydrogen Fuel — New Energy and Fuel
Clashes at Libya-Tunisia Border Force Closure of Key Crossing — Al Jazeera
M23 Rebels Encircle DR Congo's Goma — Financial Times
NATO Builds a Massive New Military Base in Romania — The Diplomatic Affairs
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Agree to Joint Water Monitoring — The Diplomat
Wednesday, March 20th
Sudan Declares Force Majeure on South Sudan's Oil Exports — Oil Price
China Pivots to Asian Markets as Europe and US Place Barriers — SCMP
EU Reaches Deal with US to Launch Galileo Satellites on SpaceX Rockets — Politico
Malaysia as a Key Player in Semiconductor Assembly and Testing — Stratfor
Infrastructure Development Goes Global — Geopolitical Monitor
Israeli Settlers Expand Presence in West Bank — Al Jazeera
Thursday, March 21st
US Backs India in Arunachal Pradesh Dispute with China — Nikkei
China's Evolving Role in Transboundary Water Management — The Diplomat
Turkey and GCC Launch Free Trade Agreement Talks — Al-Monitor
Australia and UK Sign Mutual Defence Treaty — Financial Times
Argentina Confirms Pivot Toward the US with F-16 Purchase — MercoPress
Europe's Elusive Quest for Strategic Autonomy — GIS
Friday, March 22nd
Houthis Offer Russia and China Safe Passage in Red Sea — Bloomberg
Turkey-Israel Ties Continue to Deteriorate — Al-Monitor
EU Opens Path for Bosnia and Herzegovina Accession Talks —Euronews
China and Russia Veto US-Drafted Gaza Ceasefire Resolution — Responsible Statecraft
Hamas Faces Uncertain Future as Qatar Reconsiders Ties — Stratfor
US Warns Ukraine to Halt Drone Strikes on Russian Oil Infrastructure — Financial Times
If you've enjoyed what you've read and want to support my work, you can do so here. Your generosity helps me keep the stories coming. It ain't much, but it's honest work.