In Geopolitics This Week
Limits to the EU’s Energy Alternatives in North America, Ukraine Breaks Through Russian Lines Along the Kharkiv Axis, India and China Disengage Troops from Gogra-Hot Springs, and other stories.
Limits to the EU’s Energy Alternatives in North America
Europe’s attempts to replace Russian natural gas have not abated, and the need for alternatives has seen increased focus by Brussels to secure energy exports from Canada and the United States.
Since the imposition of sanctions on Russian energy commodities, Europe has displaced Asia as the top destination for US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Europe now receives 65% of total US LNG exports, fostering an energy dependency on a different foreign power than Russia in the process. There are now concerns that trading one dependency for another will carry a different set of risks for European natural gas customers in the years ahead.
Since the bulk of US LNG export facilities are found along the Gulf of Mexico’s Coast, the EU's new primary source of energy is located in a region that is prone to hurricanes. This means that when hurricanes batter the Gulf of Mexico, every process from liquefaction to shipping and extraction, to processing, can be disrupted.
Beyond the United States, Canada is the world’s fourth largest producer of crude oil. Yet unlike most major producers and exporters of crude oil, Canada mostly has a single energy export market — the United States. As such, most of Canada’s export infrastructure is geared towards moving crude oil to the United States. This means that Canada has only a limited ability to change crude flows to Europe.
Since the EU announced its sixth package of sanctions on Russia, Canadian officials have explored ways to facilitate oil transfers to Europe. Newfoundland and Labrador already exports crude oil to Europe, though an increase in the volume produced would be necessary in order to put a dent in replacing Russian-sourced supplies.
Of the limited supply of Canadian crude available for export, crude oil and its many by-products can be sent from Vancouver by several routes, including the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and around Cape Horn. However, these routes all prove costly, and this will mean that any increased energy imports heading from Canada to the EU are set to come at a high cost.
Ukraine Breaks Through Russian Lines Along the Kharkiv Axis
Ukraine’s armed forces have broken through Russia’s defensive lines around Kharkiv, and have recaptured over 2,500 square kilometres of territory as part of major counteroffensive actions. Ukrainian forces reached the southern approach to Kupyansk and the Oskil River, and have begun to clear pockets of disorganized Russian forces near Kupyansk, Izyum, and the Oskil River.
The successful counteroffensive actions undertaken by Ukrainian troops with NATO intelligence support may work to collapse Russian positions around Izyum if Russian ground lines of communication are severed north and south of the city. Ukrainian forces continued to surround Izyum and are now undertaking measures to isolate the Russian grouping of forces there. If Ukrainians are successful in severing Russian ground lines of communication here, they will have an opportunity to collapse significant Russian positions along the Kharkiv axis in Ukraine.
In response, Russian forces are rushing to reinforce the Kharkiv-Izyum line. Russian military convoys have been dispatched to reinforce Kupyansk, Izyum, and the general Kharkiv direction. The scramble to reinforce troops here comes after Russian forces have been redeploying out of the region in a bid to reinforce elsewhere in the Donetsk Oblast and along the Southern Axis. The counteroffensive has also prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to convene a meeting with top Russian security officials, after which a general retreat from Izyum appears to have commenced.
At the same time, Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations in Kherson Oblast continue to degrade Russian capabilities. Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian pontoon and ferry crossings, indicating a commitment to consistently destroying re-emerging Russian ground lines of communication.
India and China Disengage Troops from Gogra-Hot Springs
India and China have begun pulling back troops from one of the key areas of contention along their disputed border. The move follows bilateral consultations in which both powers agreed to take steps to lower tensions in a standoff that has at times led to clashes.
The two countries have stationed tens of thousands of soldiers at the Line of Actual Control (LOAC), a disputed border which separates China’s and Indian-held territories from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Ladakh in the west. These troops have been backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets, with sporadic skirmishes taking place across the LOAC. There are three key friction points along the disputed border between the countries, with the outposts at Gogra-Hot Springs now seeing both countries disengage their armed forces for the time being.
India and China have held 16 rounds of commander-level talks aimed at reducing tensions along the LOAC since the countries clashed in May 2020. This disengagement appears to be an attempt to create favourable conditions for a potential dialogue between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Uzbekistan during the week starting Sept. 11.
Although the disengagement is a significant development that will lower the risk of conflict at the disputed border in the short-term, the overall border standoff is unlikely to settle since both countries have hardened their positions along other strategic areas along the entire LOAC over the past two years.