In Geopolitics This Week
US Tariff Structure Targets China in Two-Tier System, Israel's Security Doctrine Threatens 46-Year Egypt Peace Treaty, Military Buildup Accelerates on Ethiopia-Eritrea Border, and other stories.
US Tariff Structure Targets China in Two-Tier System
The United States has added a punitive 125% tariff on Chinese imports, while setting a 10% baseline rate for other nations. On April 10, the White House paused global tariffs for 90 days while maintaining China-specific duties. Two days later, Washington exempted smartphones, semiconductors, and other electronics from these measures. China has responded with 125% countermeasures and export controls on five critical metals essential to US defence industries. The European Union suspended its €21 billion retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, preserving the framework for reimposition. Vietnam, Japan, India, Indonesia, South Korea, and others are initiating negotiations with US officials to secure preferential treatment.
This two-tier approach forces regional manufacturing economies to choose sides. Vietnam and Cambodia are among the most vulnerable, now facing high US tariffs despite operating on minimal margins after relocating from China to reduce costs. Hong Kong is already working to redirect trade flows toward Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Countries must calculate whether US or Chinese market access delivers greater economic benefit. Washington's electronics exemptions target sectors where alternatives exist while preserving critical supply chains. This selective approach creates leverage beyond bilateral negotiations, as nations throughout Asia reassess supply chains and export markets. The tariff structure effectively divides the regional economic architecture into competing spheres of influence, with significant implications for investment flows and industrial development strategies.
The fundamental contest centres on systemic resilience. China's industrial capacity doubles that of the US — producing 20 times more cement, 13 times more steel, and three times more vehicles. Chinese manufacturing dominates strategic sectors: 50% of global chemicals, 67% of electric vehicles, 75% of batteries, and 90% of solar panels and rare earths. Purchasing power calculations place China's economy at $39 trillion versus US $30 trillion. Against this, the combined capacity of Western powers represents an estimated $60 trillion bloc with double China's defence spending, but this advantage remains largely uncoordinated. The struggle is not merely about trade balances but competing economic systems and their capacity to sustain prolonged economic pressure.
Israel's Security Doctrine Threatens 46-Year Egypt Peace Treaty
Israel has established a 5-kilometre security corridor along Gaza's Egyptian border, implementing a military buffer zone that directly challenges the Camp David demilitarization framework. The IDF has now completely encircled Rafah, cutting the city off from the rest of Gaza and claiming it as part of its “security zone.” These unilateral actions violate Camp David demilitarization terms and implement a strategic approach dating back to a 2004 Israeli security proposal to link Gaza with Egyptian territory. Cairo has consistently rejected any Palestinian presence in Sinai, viewing such proposals as existential threats to its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
In response, Egypt deployed tanks in central Sinai on April 9, exceeding the 230-tank limit permitted in “Area A” under the Egypt-Israel peace treaty's military annex. Bilateral relations have deteriorated to their lowest point since 1978 — Egypt has joined South Africa's ICJ case against Israel and downgraded diplomatic representation to chargé d'affaires level for the first time since normalization. Egyptian officials maintain that Camp David constitutes the foundation of regional security architecture, making Israeli violations particularly destabilizing. Cairo views the buffer zone expansion as a direct challenge to the peace treaty's core bargain: Egyptian demilitarization of Sinai in exchange for Israeli recognition of complete Egyptian sovereignty.
The fundamental contradiction between Israeli security doctrine and Egyptian sovereignty requirements has created a military stand-off with heightened risk of border incidents through force proximity rather than diplomatic breakdown. Israel demands Egypt dismantle Sinai military infrastructure while simultaneously expanding buffer zones; Egypt maintains its sovereign defence rights while opposing any Palestinian presence on Egyptian soil. These mutually exclusive positions threaten the treaty that has prevented major Arab-Israeli conflict for nearly half a century and functioned as the cornerstone of stable military ties since 1979.
Military Buildup Accelerates on Ethiopia-Eritrea Border
Ethiopian and Eritrean forces are positioning along their shared border following the collapse of Tigray's interim administration. Eritrean military units remain deployed in Ethiopia's strategic Irob district, controlling key border crossings and terrain. Eritrea has implemented full military mobilization, activating all citizens under 60 years old. Ethiopia has moved federal forces and armoured units to its northern frontier, while the 200,000-strong Tigray Defence Forces remain fractured between competing leadership factions. This three-way power dynamic creates strategic complications along Ethiopia's northern border, where territorial disputes remain unresolved despite the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.
Ethiopia's pursuit of Red Sea access drives regional power calculations. As the world's most populous landlocked nation with 120 million citizens, Ethiopia pays $1.6 billion annually in port fees to Djibouti. Red Sea access could enhance Ethiopian growth by 25-30 percent. While Prime Minister Abiy has publicly disavowed intentions to invade Eritrea, he has described Red Sea access as “an existential matter” for Ethiopia. Eritrea interprets these statements as territorial threats against its sovereignty, particularly regarding the strategic port of Assab. The 2018 Ethiopia-Eritrea peace agreement has effectively collapsed as both sides revert to security-based approaches to territorial disputes dating to Eritrea's 1993 independence.
The Tigray situation functions as a proxy arena for Ethiopia-Eritrea competition. Eritrean exclusion from the Pretoria Agreement negotiations that ended the 2020-2022 conflict damaged its relationship with Addis Ababa. Both nations now leverage Tigray's internal divisions for geopolitical advantage. The military buildup reflects broader power realignments as Sudan's civil war, Somali territorial disputes, and Red Sea shipping lane security create multilayered strategic considerations. These developments occur as foreign powers compete for influence in Red Sea maritime corridors, creating additional pressure on Ethiopian-Eritrean territorial calculations. The current deployments position both countries for potential territorial adjustments that would reconfigure regional boundaries and control of critical transportation corridors.