In Geopolitics This Week
Antarctica in Modern Geopolitics, US Leaves Afghan Base in the Dark of Night, Russia Releases New National Security Strategy Document, and other stories.
Monday, July 5th
US Imposes Additional Sanctions on Myanmar
Last Friday, the Biden administration announced a new set of sanctions against Myanmar’s military government. The statement released warned of “increasing costs” over the government’s activities regarding “suppression of democracy” as well as a “campaign of brutal violence” against protesters.
In practical terms, the costs that Blinken’s statement refers to were first announced by the US Department of Treasury, which declared that it had frozen the assets of 22 individuals associated with the government. Among those sanctioned are said to be three members of the State Administration Council, four cabinet ministers, and fifteen former officials. The statements accompanying the new sanctions made clear that this is a demonstration of a continued US willingness to coerce Myanmar’s officials and policymakers into a change of government policy.
At the same time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it was imposing sanctions on Wanbao Mining as well as two of its subsidiaries on the grounds that they have been linked to “labor rights violations and human rights abuses.” King Royal Technologies, a telecommunications company in Myanmar, has also been placed on the sanctions list because it provides telecommunications support to the Myanmar military.
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Antarctica in Modern Geopolitics
Despite a scramble by the empires of the 19th and 20th centuries to stake claims in the remote Antarctic region, to this day it remains a mostly untouched frozen wilderness. This is largely due to the challenging nature of the environment that any presence in the region must account for, complicating the effort of establishing any sustained forward presence without incurring excessive costs.
But this reality has not stopped states from claiming parts of the region as their own. However, with the cost of enforcement so high, any claim is difficult to uphold without a consistent presence.
The Antarctic region’s isolation and hostile climate feed negatively into the cost-benefit calculations of anyone considering a presence there. The conventional wisdom between states, based on this assumption, has been that even when state claims do overlap, the inability of any one actor to realistically enforce their claims on this frozen continent leads to what can be considered an acceptable level of friction and competition — one in which the fundamental interests of any of the claimants is not threatened.
But this view may not hold for long. Technological advancements have shortened distances, and innovations may soon significantly reduce the burdens of permanent claim enforcement in Antarctica. Rapid technological advancement increasingly means that the prevailing wisdom which informed the Antarctic Treaty may no longer be convincing. Improvements in transportation and communication have enabled state (and increasingly, corporate) actors to access the continent on a more permanent basis, leading to an international environment where state enforcement of claims incurs little cost while promising lucrative benefits.
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Tuesday, July 6th
China Could Be Seeking a Negotiated Settlement
As the largest beneficiary of the current international order, the United States favours the status quo. George Friedman, in his latest publication, discusses how China might tackle such an international environment, an environment where the US enjoys political and military supremacy across the Pacific, from Japan to the Indian Ocean. The US forward presence in this region affords it the privilege of control in strategic chokepoints, a reality that to Chinese policymakers appears untenable.
Given this presence in chokepoints between various landmasses in the region, the US can — by paying the political, economic and military costs associated with such decisions — block Chinese access to the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The outcome would be a closure of maritime routes used by China to maintain its trade — vital for an export-driven economy. For the US, this is a powerful position to hold, and one which affords it the option to engage China on its own terms.
But this status quo is unsatisfactory to China. It denies China access to the high seas — an essential asset Chinese development is dependent on — and cements an environment where Chinese domestic growth is susceptible to excessive US leverage. This leverage comes in the form of power over these strategic chokepoints which serve as China’s exits to the oceans.
Friedman notes that one way that Beijing might strengthen its hand against the US is by providing infrastructure investment incentives to its strategic allies, such as Cuba, much like the Soviet Union did during the Cold War. This would allow China the option of threatening the blockade of US ports, in effect equalising the negotiating position between the two powers. In such a scenario, Cuba might once more become a pawn in a global geopolitical struggle.
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Chinese Troops Assembling on the Myanmar border
Following the Myanmar coup in February, China has had plenty of reasons to be worried about the continued security of its state interests. With Chinese interests in the country ranging from Chinese corporate investments to state-funded oil and gas pipeline projects, Beijing feels pressured to act in order to ensure their continued operation.
For these investments to succeed, China desires peace and order in Myanmar. Chinese officials know that when there is internal disorder Chinese families, businesses, and investments can be threatened. Such disorder is today widespread in Myanmar due to a multitude of ongoing conflicts between hostile rival factions, which are only exacerbated by foreign interference.
Some of the violence which has gripped Myanmar has even spilled into attacks on Chinese-held factories, concerning Chinese policymakers. The situation is said to be particularly tense in Kachin State, with renewed fighting between Myanmar’s military and the Kachin Independence Army. While the military regime in Myanmar has promised to protect Chinese factories and investments, doing so in the midst of armed conflict across vast distances is another matter entirely.
The state of affairs has apparently turned for the worse more recently, with rumours swirling that Chinese troops are assembling in Jiegao, an important border town which provides access to the Kyaukpyu pipelines. The pipelines are a fundamental element in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and many of these investments deeply bind the two countries together.
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Wednesday, July 7th
US Army in the Era of Great Power Competition
As the United States shifts its security posture from one centred around global counter-terrorism operations to one focusing on great power competition, the way its Army, Marine Corps, Navy, Air Force, and Space Force branches operate will have to dramatically change.
The Modern War Institute at West Point — a research institute within the US Department of Defense— has published a report analysing the role of the US Army’s brigade combat teams in today’s operating environment alongside the capabilities of the United States’ most direct rivals: China and Russia. The report aims to reconcile realities that great power conflict will bring to US practices in training, reform, and modernisation.
Part one of the report examines trends in contemporary conflict in a bid to challenge typical assumptions associated with newer, great power–oriented strategic thinking. Part two then uses these trends as a lens through which to analyse the military capabilities and doctrine of both Chinese and Russian forces. Part three then applies this analysis to American combat manoeuvre brigades. Their analysis shows that Chinese and Russian ways of war will require the US to use combat brigades in shaping operations, and their research goes on to suggest ways in which the US Army can adapt to these realities.
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US Leaves Afghan Base in the Dark of Night
The United States has withdrawn its forces Afghanistan’s Bagram Airfield after almost twenty years in operation. That the US is in the middle of a full withdrawal from the country is hardly surprising, but the manner of this particular part of the withdrawal operations has caught the public eye.
The exit is reported to have been abrupt, in the middle of the night, and is said to have been followed by a full shutdown of the bases’ electricity. Worse still, the local Afghan commander was not informed of the operation, and is said to have discovered the departure more than two hours after the fact.
Among the 3.5 million items said to be left behind at the base — most of which are phones, doorknobs, windows, and so on — were thousands of civilian vehicles and hundreds of armoured vehicles. Unfortunately for the Afghan forces taking over the base, it was also reported that many of these vehicles were missing the keys necessary to start them. There have also been reports of statements made which suggest that the US forces left behind small weapons and ammunition, while taking all heavy weapons with them.
Footage seen here appears to show glimpses of what the US forces have left behind.
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Thursday, July 8th
Russia Releases New National Security Strategy Document
Russia has released a new National Security Strategy document, signed by President Vladimir Putin on July 2nd. The latest iteration of this significant statement of intent for the Russian state covers issues pertaining to national security, the economy, the environment, national values, as well as others. Researcher Dmitri Trenin conducts an early analysis of the document in search of insights on Russian policy going forward.
The central focus of the entire strategy document appears largely inward-looking: demographics, political stability, sovereignty, national harmony, economic development, protection of the environment, and the preservation of the nation’s moral climate.
And this domestic focus, Trenin notes, makes sense. With Russia having recently undergone a significant military reform program, the Russian leadership feels confident it can look inward and attempt to address some of the glaring issues on the domestic front.
Regarding foreign relations, there are also some notable changes from previous documents. Firstly, the United States and some NATO member states are now designated as unfriendly states. Secondly, a shift away from Europe is also evident, with key strategic partnerships with India and China elevated to higher levels of importance than those with European countries. Finally, the document notes that the US alliance structure, coupled with the US’ dominance in the domains of finance and information, are powerful instruments used as part of a containment strategy against Russia.
On the whole, the new National Security Strategy aims to build a framework for the country to adapt to an interconnected world, and it recognises how woefully Russia would fare in the future without drastic changes. In the view of this document, victories will be won on the domestic front, and it is where, for Russia, some of its greatest challenges as a nation-state lie.
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Are Positive Relations Between Europe and Russia Possible?
The question of Europe’s strategic autonomy has come up a few times over the last few years, but the question has yet to yield an answer on whether or not Europe is actually capable of pursuing an independent foreign policy.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emanuel Macron did try to capitalise on the diplomatic buzz surrounding the G-7 and NATO summits by floating the idea of a new EU diplomatic channel with Russia. Merkel in particular hoped to create a format which would establish direct contact with Putin in a bid to restore relations.
But statements following meetings held between European and Russian officials on the side-lines of the summits indicate that moves toward a thaw in EU-Russia relations are often dead in their tracks. The statements issued called on Russia to change its behaviour, and even threatened further sanctions if Russia persisted in “malign, illegal and disruptive” activities.
Moscow was quick to say it regrets the missed opportunity for dialogue, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly even stating that the EU is behaving as merely a “choir” of the United States in their discussions.
But Eastern European countries have legitimate fears that any joint Franco-German initiative which lessens the geopolitical pressure on Moscow will legitimise Russian interests to the detriment of their own. In fact, much of their security frameworks are deeply integrated within NATO which means that any split on Russia policy within the EU — at least from the perspective of countries like Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, — is dangerous.
These countries look to the United States to assume their security burdens. Every time France or Germany considers softening their stance on Russia through the institutions of the EU, Eastern member states do everything in their power to prevent the success of any such initiative.
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Friday, July 9th
China-Pakistan Relations Deepen
The relationship between China and Pakistan appears to be deepening in the increasingly competitive Asia region. Their military and strategic partnership continues to build as Pakistan recently brought into service its first batch of Chinese-built VT-4 tanks.
The Pakistan Armed Forces media team talked up the acquisition by stating that the purchase was “a modern tank integrating advanced armour protection, manoeuvrability, firepower capabilities and state-of-the-art technology.” The sale and induction into active service of these Chinese-made tanks is one way in which the relationship between the two countries continues to deepen.
Similarly, that Pakistan increasingly uses Chinese-made drones is yet another sign of this deepening strategic partnership. It is interesting to note that China is becoming a major exporter of both civil and combat drones to a number of countries. Pakistan, a regular customer of Chinese arms, has also recently purchased some 50 Wing Loong II drone aircraft.
The drones have been effective tools for Pakistan, especially on the border along the Line of Control between India and Pakistan. And these latest arms deliveries are a tell-tale sign that a mutual desire exists in both countries to deepen their strategic relationship. For both these countries, the other is a critical security partner, and it looks to remain that way in the foreseeable future.
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Poland Interested in Large Purchase of M1 Abrams Tanks
Poland has expressed an interest in a major purchase of American arms. Only two months after announcing its intentions of purchasing 24 Baytaktar TB2 drones from Turkey, Poland is reportedly already making preparations for a new arms purchase of 250 M1 Abrams tanks from the United States.
The Polish Armed Forces are said to be interested in buying around 250 tanks in the variant of M1A2 SEPv3. If the purchases go through, it would greatly improve Poland’s armoured brigade capabilities, as well as introduce considerable modern tank capacities into its ground forces more broadly.
Poland has been angling to purchase a new vehicle platform in its bid to gradually replace the country’s ageing Soviet-designed T-72 and PT-91 tanks. And while Warsaw has expressed prior interest in the joint French-German project to build a European tank, the lack of progress in this European initiative has disappointed Polish policymakers. For now, as it has yet to fully replace the many aging Soviet tanks still used by its armed forces, Poland still seeks more modern armoured brigades.
And the United States too has much to gain from the sale of these Abrams tanks to Poland. By providing Warsaw with the M1 Abrams, Washington’s arms are exported to an ally, and will likely go toward securing NATO’s eastern flank. This would, in turn, help its frontline ally acquire modern capabilities, and allow it to operate as a powerful force within the NATO structure.
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