In Geopolitics This Week
Nord Stream 1 & 2 Out of Operation due to Sabotage, Militarization in the Eastern Mediterranean Intensifies, Russia Formally Annexes Four Oblasts of Ukraine, and other stories.
Nord Stream 1 & 2 Out of Operation due to Sabotage
Four leaks have been discovered on the Nord Stream pipelines that carry natural gas from Russia to Europe via the Baltic Sea. The Nord Stream pipelines have been flashpoints in an escalating energy war between the United States and Moscow over access to European energy markets. Although the exact cause of the leaks is unknown, EU member states and Russia both blame the leaks on a deliberate act of sabotage. That the underwater pipelines were severed via detonation suggests the involvement of a state actor.
Such an attack on the seabed is anything but trivial, and would likely have to be carried out by special forces operating aircraft, navy divers, a submarine or an unmanned underwater vehicle. Neither pipeline was pumping gas to Europe at the time the leaks were found, but the incidents will scupper any remaining expectations that Europe could receive gas via Nord Stream 1 before or during the coming winter. The pipeline attacks come as a number of German politicians have demanded the opening of Nord Stream 2, and the subject has attracted a growing protest movement in Germany.
The purpose of these pipelines was to supply Russian gas directly to European markets. With the pipelines out of operation for the foreseeable future, Russia not only loses access to European energy markets, but also hands European energy customers to the United States at a time when gas prices are near all-time-highs. In effect, Russia has lost its most significant leverage over Europe, a bargaining chip that was critical to Moscow’s strategy of coercing European elites to withdraw their support for Ukraine by withholding gas supplies.
The act of sabotage marks a major escalation in the economic war between Russia and Ukraine’s financial and military backers. More aggressive attacks on strategic infrastructure could follow as the destruction of civilian infrastructure outside Ukraine is a serious escalation that likely won’t go unanswered. With its natural gas exports to Europe almost at zero, Russia may lash out on the loss of its pipelines by threatening oil and gas infrastructure in Europe as a way to apply more pressure on European member states.
Militarization in the Eastern Mediterranean Intensifies
Tensions are again on the rise in the Eastern Mediterranean with both Turkey and Greece taking steps to further militarize the region. US military support to contested islands held by Greek forces are further enflaming an already tense situation, and Washington’s decision to lift an arms embargo on Cyprus suggests that the militarization of the Eastern Mediterranean is set to continue.
Ankara summoned the Greek ambassador and protested to the United States after discovering a Greek deployment of US-made armoured vehicles on two Aegean islands near the Turkish coast. Turkish army drones recorded a Greek deployment of the vehicles on the Aegean islands of Lesvos and Samos, which Ankara argues is a violation of international law.
The Turkish foreign ministry said Athens should “stop violations” and respect the non-military status of the islands. In addition, Ankara reportedly forwarded a note to the US embassy in Ankara, informing Washington that “weapons should not be used in breach” of the islands’ status. Athens, on the other hand, rejected Ankara’s objections as “completely unfounded,” framing Turkey’s legal case as absurd.
Washington’s decision to remove a long-standing arms embargo on Cyprus promises to strain relations between Turkey and Greece even further. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded to the move by outlining plans to reinforce Turkey's military presence in Northern Cyprus.
Turkey's military presence in northern Cyprus is part of Ankara's efforts to delegitimize the sovereignty of the Republic of Cyprus. With more military hardware present on Cyprus, Greece will likely view Turkey's actions as a threat. This risks emboldening both powers in concentrating weapons on the island of Cyprus and elsewhere in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Russia Formally Annexes Four Oblasts of Ukraine
The Russian government has formally annexed four regions of Ukraine. Russian-backed officials in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts said voters overwhelmingly supported joining Russia, but the referendums have been immediately dismissed by Ukraine and a number of other states as illegal under international law.
The annexation marks the largest land grab in Europe since the Second World War. While Russia and its separatist allies do not yet entirely control any of the four provinces annexed, — all of which together constitute more than 19% of Ukraine’s land area — Moscow has vowed to capture the annexed regions in full. The four regions form a land connection between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, which is otherwise only connected to the Russian mainland via the Kerch Strait Bridge.
Annexing Ukrainian territory now is likely intended to undermine international support for Ukraine. Although the United States, the United Kingdom and Poland remain resolute in their political, financial, and military support for Ukraine, Germany and France are wary of further escalation. Even if the legitimacy of Moscow’s unilateral annexation remains internationally unrecognized, the fact that Moscow regards these territories as a part of Russia could be enough to discourage some states from supporting any military action that could escalate the conflict past the nuclear threshold.
More broadly, the annexation will prolong the conflict in Ukraine and increase the risk of both conventional and nuclear escalation. Although Russia and Ukraine will continue peripheral and indirect discussions on matters such as prisoner exchanges, a return to peace negotiations is now extremely unlikely for the foreseeable future following the incorporation of Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.