In Geopolitics This Week
India-Middle East-Europe Corridor, Fraying Armenia-Russia Ties, Massive Lithium Reserves Discovered in the US, and other stories.
India-Middle East-Europe Corridor
Leaders from the United States, India, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, France, Germany, Italy, and the European Union have unveiled the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). This extensive multimode transit corridor, spanning over 4,828 kilometres, comprises two key routes: the eastern corridor, connecting India to the Arabian Gulf, and the northern corridor, linking the Arabian Gulf to Europe. The IMEC is envisioned as a transformative infrastructure project, aiming to foster economic integration and connectivity between Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
The IMEC project, outlined in a memorandum of understanding, holds the promise of creating a reliable and cost-effective cross-border ship-to-rail transit network. By complementing existing maritime and road transport routes, it aims to facilitate the smooth flow of goods and services between India, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and Europe. This initiative is significant not only for its economic implications but also for its geopolitical implications. It offers the United States and its European partners an opportunity to present a credible alternative to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The IMEC represents a step toward deeper integration between India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and underscores the shifting dynamics in the Middle East and South Asia. It signifies the region's acknowledgment of India's rise and the pursuit of economic diversification beyond energy dependence. While the IMEC is framed as a response to the BRI, regional players like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are cautious about choosing sides in bloc politics. Both nations have expressed a desire to maintain autonomy and safeguard their sovereignty.
Iran may pose challenges to the success of the IMEC. Russia's ongoing development of transit corridors, particularly the north-south route from St. Petersburg to Mumbai, aligns closely with Tehran's interests. This corridor has already seen the successful passage of Russian container cargo through Iran to Saudi Arabia, highlighting its functionality and intermodal operation. Iranian officials firmly advocate for this route, positioning Iran as a pivotal logistics hub. Iran's geographical location at the crossroads of key land routes further bolsters its argument that there is no viable alternative. China's BRI may be the real target of the IMEC, potentially leading Beijing to align with Tehran to protect its interests.
Fraying Armenia-Russia Ties
Tensions are escalating between Armenia and its traditional strategic ally Russia. Armenia has boldly criticized Russia's “absolute indifference” to Azerbaijani military actions against it. Prime Minister Pashinyan expressed regret over Armenia's near-total reliance on Russia for security, calling it a “strategic mistake.” Meanwhile, Armenia is reaching out to the West, sending its first humanitarian aid package to Ukraine and conducting rare joint military exercises with US forces.
Russia has firmly denounced Armenia's critical rhetoric and growing cooperation with the West. However, its ability to respond is hampered as the Ukraine war divides Moscow's attention. As Russia's regional influence wanes amid distractions, Armenia appears to be cautiously rebalancing its external alignments. Strong economic and military bonds with Russia persist, limiting any immediate wholesale geopolitical shift for Armenia. But exploring new partnerships suggests Yerevan no longer sees Moscow as its sole security guarantor in the region.
For the United States, expanded defence collaboration with Armenia allows it to exploit Russian distractions in Ukraine and actively undermine Moscow's standing in what it sees as its sphere of influence. However, Armenia is highly unlikely to abandon its long-standing strategic alignment with Russia outright. Much depends on whether the West follows up to offer Armenia viable alternatives to augment its security architecture beyond just rhetoric. For now, Russia still retains tremendous leverage as the dominant military presence in both Armenia proper and the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Nevertheless, even symbolic outreach to the West represents a clear rebuke of Russia's failure to fully back Armenian security interests against Azerbaijan. Still, with few good options before it, Armenia will likely continue pursuing a delicate balancing act between old dependencies and new strategic opportunities. The crisis exposes growing cracks in Russia's regional standing, but its lasting impact depends on how competently major powers vie to shape Armenia's evolving strategic calculus moving forward.
Massive Lithium Reserves Discovered in the US
A recent study suggests the McDermitt Caldera straddling the Nevada-Oregon border may contain the world's largest deposit of lithium. Initial estimates hover between 20 and 40 million metric tons, a figure that could eclipse even Bolivia's lithium reserves. The distinguishing factor here is that the lithium is ensconced within clay deposits, a departure from conventional brine sources. This deposit's origin traces back to an ancient supervolcano eruption, subsequently enriched by lithium-bearing hydrothermal fluids.
The scale of this discovery is monumental, yet it necessitates rigorous confirmation. Lithium Americas Corporation is already setting its sights on commencing mining operations in 2026, employing a method that utilizes water separation and acid leaching. If executed efficiently with minimal environmental impact, this deposit could assume economic significance of substantial proportions. It holds the promise of bolstering US energy security and self-reliance, potentially challenging China's stranglehold on the battery industry.
The emergence of this discovery is in part fuelled by the surging demand for batteries. As electric vehicles continue their march into the mainstream, the possibility of unearthing new lithium sources becomes increasingly plausible. If validated, this discovery has the potential to significantly alter the landscape of US lithium reserves and the global battery supply chain. While this deposit could serve US interests, it's equally critical to manage its potential impacts responsibly. Negotiating the complex geopolitics of mineral supply chains necessitates a multifaceted approach.
With the global transition to cleaner energy gaining momentum, the demand for critical minerals, including lithium, is poised for substantial growth. Nations worldwide are scrambling to secure these supplies to facilitate electrification while averting dependence on external sources. The United States, while fortifying its domestic reserves, must also engage in international cooperation to meet its lithium demands. Achieving energy security and sustainability in the 21st century demands a delicate balance of competition and collaboration among powers.