In Geopolitics This Week
Western Sahara Crisis Threatens Stability in the Maghreb, Fighting Resumes Between Armenian and Azeri Forces, Eurasian Powers Meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other stories.
Western Sahara Crisis Threatens Stability in the Maghreb
While the threat of serious armed conflict in northwest Africa over the Western Sahara remains unlikely, the diplomatic crisis developing among the Maghreb countries is likely to disrupt relations. Since August, Morocco and Tunisia have been engaged in a diplomatic spat involving Western Sahara that risks spilling over into bilateral trade relations. The Moroccan Consumer Rights Federation has recently announced a campaign to boycott Tunisian goods, and the crisis threatens to pull Tunisia deeper into a longstanding rivalry between Algeria and Morocco.
While Tunisia has historically sought to remain neutral on the issue of sovereignty over Western Sahara, Algeria has backed the Polisario movement since its formation, thus positioning itself opposed to Morocco’s claims over the entire region. Concerned over Morocco’s growing list of international backers (Israel and the United States being just two major partners), Algeria’s foreign policy in recent years has turned toward Sub-Saharan Africa in response to Morocco’s increased activity on the Western Sahara issue. In turn, Morocco has accused Algeria of lobbying countries in support of Morocco’s position on Western Sahara.
Morocco is unlikely to be deterred from its position on Western Sahara anytime soon as Rabat has already attained the recognition of its position by the United States, Spain and Germany. In addition, several African countries have opened consulates in the territory since the US first recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. With Russian fertilizers no longer entering European markets, Morocco’s vast phosphate reserves are already attracting major powers, and in doing so lending support to Rabat in its political positions in the region.
International support for Morocco’s claims are rapidly increasingly, with Kenya being the latest country to upend decades-long policy of siding with the African Union on the status of Western Sahara. Nairobi has now decided to ally with Morocco in the international issue over Western Sahara. Shortly before announcing Kenya’s change of policy on Western Sahara, the Kenyan government was happy to make clear that deliveries of cheaper fertiliser from Morocco will be arriving in Kenya before the end of the month.
Fighting Resumes Between Armenian and Azeri Forces
Fighting has once again erupted between Armenian and Azeri forces along their volatile shared border, leaving troops dead on both sides according to defence ministries in both Baku and Yerevan. The escalation marked the most drastic flare-up in violence since a ceasefire was agreed marking the end of the 2020 war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan blamed each other for the latest escalation in hostilities. While both countries agreed to a momentary ceasefire to halt violence, reports indicate the agreement fell apart just minutes later.
Armenia said that Azerbaijani forces broke the ceasefire by conducting intensive artillery shelling against Armenian military positions in the direction of the cities of Goris, Sotk, and Jermuk. On the other hand, Azerbaijan’s officials accuse Armenia of “large-scale subversive acts” near the districts of Dashkesan, Kelbajar and Lachin.
The governments of Russia, the United States and France are all calling for restraint, while Turkey has sided with Baku by calling for Armenia to cease “provocations” against Azerbaijan. Moscow in particular has engaged in a delicate balancing act, maintaining strong economic and security ties with Armenia, while also developing close cooperation with Azerbaijan. The Russian Foreign Ministry urged both parties “to refrain from further escalation and show restraint.”
The Armenian government said it would ask Russia for assistance under a friendship treaty between the countries, and appeal to the United Nations and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Following the flare-up in violence, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, European Council President Charles Michel and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, all of which have an interest in maintaining the status quo in the region.
Eurasian Powers Meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
The leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) met this week to hold bilateral and multilateral meetings at the summit. Eurasian leaders are expected to review the organization's activities over the past two decades and discuss the state and prospects of multilateral cooperation going forward. Topical issues of regional and global importance are also expected to be discussed at the meeting.
At the summit, Iran signed a Memorandum of Obligations to become a permanent member of the SCO. With Iran as a full member, the SCO will now comprise of nine member states — China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan. The SCO plays an important role in safeguarding regional security and joint prosperity.
During his speech, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping called for all SCO members to strengthen practical cooperation among themselves. He pronounced that China is ready and willing to start work with all key stakeholders to pursue the Global Development Initiative and jointly promote the Belt and Road Initiative.
The SCO summit comes at a critical time for all major and middle powers in the organization. The strengthening of the alliance between China and Russia has led to changes in India’s regional stance as New Delhi has partially aligned itself with Washington’s China strategy.
A deepening Russia-China bond has caused India lean into its relationships with both Moscow and Washington as New Delhi seeks to balance against China, its chief geopolitical rival. Yet with Modi’s personal attendance at the SCO summit including a meeting with Xi Jinping coming on top of a closer alignment with Washington’s anti-China policies and New Delhi’s purchases of Russia’s energy resources, India appears to be triangulating between the three poles of power.
The main driver for continued solidarity between three key Eurasian powers — China, Iran, Russia — continues to be the United States: Washington has not held back in its practice of a strategy of dual containment toward both Russia and China while at the same time maintaining a policy of maximum pressure against Iran. This incentivizes these Eurasian states to work together in a bid to minimize the political, economic and military costs imposed by the United States and its European allies.