In Geopolitics This Week
Violence in Sudan as Paramilitary Deploys Troops Without Approval, Leaked Documents Reveal Classified US Intelligence, Brazil and China Strengthen Economic Partnership, and other stories.
Violence in Sudan as Paramilitary Deploys Troops Without Approval
Recent developments in Sudan have sparked concerns about the stability of the country. Troop movements and warnings from the Sudanese army indicate heightened tensions that could escalate into widespread violence and derail the entire government transition process. The paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has deployed troops to Khartoum and Merowe without the approval of the Sudanese Armed Forces, prompting a warning from the military.
The escalating tensions have already led to violent clashes across the country, dealing a significant blow to any hopes for a transition to civilian rule and raising fears of a wider conflict. Moreover, the situation is rapidly deteriorating, with the military ruling out negotiations with the RSF on the basis of their "rebellious" actions and instead calling for the dismantling of the militia after a day of heavy fighting.
The risk of violent confrontation is now high, and the military has placed its troops in the capital on high alert while bolstering its deployed forces. If the RSF does not comply, the military may remove them by force. Should more armed clashes occur, both the military and the RSF could mobilize additional forces in other regions of the country.
The United States, United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have previously facilitated closed-door talks between civilian and military leaders in Sudan, but the situation remains precarious and these talks appear to have yielded little progress. Since the violence has escalated this weekend, the international community has voiced concerns about the situation in Sudan, with the United Nations calling for an immediate end to the violence and for all parties to engage in dialogue.
The 2021 coup and the subsequent delays in Sudan's return to civilian rule have so far cost the country billions of dollars in external support pledged to aid its political transition, exacerbating an already fragile economic situation and worsening living conditions. Irrespective of the intensity of the fighting in the days ahead, heightened tensions will likely prevent the transitional agreement from being signed in the coming days.
Leaked Documents Reveal Classified US Intelligence
A set of leaked documents containing classified United States intelligence has surfaced, shedding light on the ongoing war in Ukraine. The documents reveal sensitive information such as US espionage tactics, military support from NATO countries, and European countries' responses to Ukraine's requests for military training and weapons. These revelations have sparked concerns about the leaks' possible consequences on global security and international relations.
Among the leaked documents, one revelation suggests that 97 special forces personnel from NATO countries were already active in Ukraine, with the UK having the highest number of deployed special forces, followed by Latvia. Additionally, the leaks indicate that Serbia agreed to supply arms to Kiev, while Egypt planned to secretly supply Russia with rockets and munitions. The documents also imply that the US has penetrated the Russian military establishment, providing real-time warnings on the timing of Moscow's military strikes.
They also reveal the US espionage capabilities, including the monitoring of allied and enemy communications. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's calls with defence and military officials, communications between Russian military forces and the Wagner Group, and espionage operations against North Korea, all feature in the documents. Moreover, the leaks also feature allegations that the senior leadership of South Korea, who were under surveillance by US intelligence agencies, were hesitant to transfer artillery shells to Ukraine.
The documents also paint a grim picture for Ukraine’s chances of outright military success. The leaked US intelligence report warns that Ukraine's anticipated spring counteroffensive will likely only result in “modest” territorial gains that would fall “well short” of Kiev's goals, predicting a “grinding campaign of attrition” that will continue in 2024. The documents also suggest that Ukraine will have completely depleted its missile stocks for its Buk and S-300 air defence systems by April 13 and May 3 respectively. If true, the number of unprotected critical infrastructure sites across Ukraine would rise from about six to more than 40, significantly decreasing Ukraine’s ability to withstand future Russian strikes.
It is uncertain whether these leaked documents are authentic, and the US Defense Department has avoided making categorical claims over their authenticity. Nevertheless, the documents pose several potential consequences for international relations and offer a small glimpse into ongoing geopolitical tensions. The revelations about US espionage capabilities and NATO personnel in Ukraine may lead to increased tensions between the US and Russia. The allegations of covert operations and arms deals could have significant implications for the relationships between the countries involved. Furthermore, the leaked documents may erode trust between the the US and its allies.
Brazil and China Strengthen Economic Partnership
The presidents of Brazil and China met this week to discuss cooperation and shared interests, including on renewable energy, agribusiness, and scientific and technological research. The meeting marks a significant step in strengthening the relationship between the two countries, which had been strained under Brazil's previous leadership under Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil and China are important economic partners, with bilateral trade totalling $150 billion in 2022.
China's relationships with Latin American nations are rooted in economic interests, and state-to-state relations are deeply influenced by China's economic importance and its position as an alternative supplier of goods that compete with those offered by the United States and Western financial institutions. China has become Brazil's main economic partner, both in trade and direct investments, and Brazil's reliance on China is structural. This economic boom has fostered strong ties between Brazilian and Chinese businesspeople, as well as ties between the Chinese Communist Party and Brazil's major political groups.
However, Brazil-China ties deteriorated since 2018 under the former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's leadership. Bolsonaro's anti-China stance, such as criticizing the acquisition of a niobium mine by a Chinese company and visiting Taiwan, violated the "One China" principle and elicited a harsh diplomatic reaction from Beijing. After the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, Bolsonaro's administration took an even more critical stance toward China, and a number of diplomatic spats marked the de facto breakdown of any cordial relationship between the Brazilian federal government and China.
Despite the last Brazilian government's attitude toward China, the Chinese Embassy in Brasília recognized that there was still room for cooperation, and alternative diplomatic routes were strengthened between Chinese businesses and labs and Brazilian subnational governments. This cooperation was significant as Latin America was hit hardest by the pandemic, both economically and in terms of deaths per capita. China was the second highest provider of pandemic assistance to Brazil in Latin America. These efforts exemplify the adaptability and resilience that Chinese economic diplomacy has demonstrated in Brazil.