In Geopolitics This Week
BRICS Expansion Aims for Global Relevance, China Bans Japanese Seafood Amid Fukushima Water Release, Niger Expels French Ambassador, and other stories.
BRICS Expansion Aims for Global Relevance
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's announcement of six new countries' potential inclusion in the BRICS grouping marks a significant expansion beyond its original five members — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Extending invitations to Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Argentina, and the United Arab Emirates, signifies BRICS' intent to broaden its collective influence. By incorporating a more diverse range of nations, the bloc aims to foster economic cooperation beyond institutions that have been traditionally dominated by Western powers.
The announcement of the inclusion of six new countries signals a shift within the BRICS framework. The inclusion of these new members has the potential to significantly enhance BRICS' economic power. The current BRICS members, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, collectively represent around 40% of the world's population and over a quarter of the global nominal GDP. With the addition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran—three of the world's largest oil producers—the bloc's economic influence would drastically increase. However, the expansion brings challenges in achieving cohesion and unity.
The addition of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran reflects changing regional power dynamics and underscores BRICS' evolving role in shaping global affairs. However, the divergence in political traditions and objectives among both current and prospective BRICS members adds to the complexity of achieving consensus on critical matters. While China and Russia see BRICS as a platform to challenge Western dominance, South Africa and Brazil prioritize fostering global economic inclusivity over geopolitical rivalry.
Despite shared interests, BRICS has grappled with challenges in achieving consensus among its original five members. For instance, the competition between China and India for strategic influence in South Asia, and the divisions caused by Russia's Ukraine intervention. Additionally, Brazil and India's resistance to emission reduction timelines set by other members have exposed divergent national priorities. These instances underscore the intricacies that a more expansive and geopolitically diverse BRICS could face when striving to build consensus. The potential new members—Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the UAE—each come with their own intricate strategic considerations, further compounding the complexity.
Nevertheless, the expansion of BRICS is part of a growing trend of countries seeking collective influence. While each member's motivations may vary, encompassing economic benefits, regional collaboration, and counterbalancing Western dominance, the challenge lies in ensuring substantive impact beyond symbolic unity. Amid evolving geopolitics, BRICS' expansion exemplifies its aspiration to play a more substantial role in shaping international affairs. Yet, the complexities of achieving consensus among a diverse set of members highlight the difficulties of harmonizing objectives and interests in a multipolar world.
China Bans Japanese Seafood Amid Fukushima Water Release
China's ban on Japanese seafood imports in response to Japan's release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant has sent Japan's fishing industry reeling and underscored the complexity of balancing economic interests with public health concerns. As the largest single market for Japanese seafood exports, China's embargo significantly impacts Japan's fisheries sector and poses broader questions about the resilience of Japan's trade relationships in the face of nuclear safety controversies.
China's embargo, partly rooted in public concerns over nuclear contamination, demonstrates an interaction in the relationship between food safety and international trade., with the ban's expansion from fresh fish to frozen and processed products revealing the extent of China's unease. Hong Kong and Macau's seafood bans came on the heels of China's as well. These bans, set to take effect immediately, add to the list of measures taken by China to address potential risks associated with Japanese seafood imports. As the biggest importer of Japanese seafood, China's actions reverberate across the industry.
Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries anticipates a notable impact from these bans, acknowledging the substantial role China and its regions play in Japan's seafood trade. The economic repercussions of China's seafood ban are evident as Japanese fishermen grapple with falling prices and an uncertain future. The ban has triggered a sharp decline in seafood prices, with some exporters even considering shutting down due to financial strain.
China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) accounted for ¥87.1 billion ($600 million) worth of Japanese seafood exports in 2022, with products like scallops, tuna, sea urchin, snapper, and sea cucumbers among the most affected. Hong Kong is Japan's second-largest market, after mainland China, for agricultural and fisheries exports. It imported ¥75.5 billion yen ($519.54 million) worth of seafood from Japan last year. However, the seafood ban's direct impact on Japan's overall exports may be limited.
Nevertheless, the ban highlights the potential for broader trade restrictions to deal a blow to Japan's economy. This incident also points to the broader challenge of managing the fallout from nuclear incidents while safeguarding international economic ties. It prompts Japan to explore strategies to restore its reputation as a reliable seafood exporter, assuaging public concerns and ensuring transparency in addressing nuclear safety measures.
Niger Expels French Ambassador
Niger's decision to expel French Ambassador Sylvain Itte has exacerbated existing tensions between the West African nation and its former colonial ruler. Niger gained independence from France in 1960 after more than 60 years of colonial rule. France maintains extensive business interests in Niger today, including the uranium mining operations of French company Orano (formerly Areva).
The military government of Niger accused Itte of disregarding a meeting invitation and engaging in actions seen as contrary to Niger's interests. This expulsion carries implications not just for Niger-France bilateral relations, but also for regional security dynamics and the strategy of regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in the Sahel.
Once the fourth-largest producer of uranium in the world, Niger has since slid to number seven, exporting about 5% of the global supply. Nevertheless, Niger’s uranium fuels at least 10% of France’s nuclear reactors, which generate most of the country’s electricity, and supplies more than one-fifth of Europe’s nuclear reactors. The suspension of trade and border closures could disrupt supply chains and increase prices of imported cereals and other essential goods as well. This promises to drive up prices for locally produced cereals like millet and sorghum. The trade suspension will also negatively affect Nigerien farmers and livestock herders who rely on exports to Nigeria, Niger's third-largest trading partner overall.
Beyond straining regional trade, the situation remains tense. ECOWAS, backed by France, is preparing a number of responses, including potential military intervention, to reinstate the deposed President Bazoum. With 11 ECOWAS members expressing readiness to deploy troops for this purpose, the situation highlights the fragile balance between national sovereignty, regional security priorities, and external interests.