In Geopolitics This Week
Turkey Launches Strikes in Northern Syria, Kosovo and Serbia Reach Deal on Licence Plate Dispute, Israel to Legalize More Settlements in the West Bank, and other stories.
Turkey Launches Strikes in Northern Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said this week that Turkey’s military will begin a land operation against Kurdish militants in northern Syria, with a number of airstrikes already conducted this week. Presenting the military operation as a response to the recent bomb attack in Istanbul, Erdogan said that Turkey will “crack down on terrorists” with land attacks as well as airstrikes.
Erdogan has said that Operation Claw Sword is just getting started, implying that a forward deployment of Turkish soldiers is already being prepared. Ankara’s stated goal is to establish a “security line” that promises to diminish Kurdish influence in the region while ensuring the “territorial integrity of Syria and Iraq.” Likely targets are the mostly Kurdish towns of Tell Rifaat, Manbij and Ayn al-Arab, threatening direct fighting between Turkish forces and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Turkish air strikes in northern Syria have already threatened the safety of US military personnel and their Kurdish allies. Two rockets targeted a US patrol base in north-eastern Syria in what amounted to the third such attack in nine days according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). CENTCOM did not specify who was responsible for firing the rockets but said the strikes were aimed at “coalition forces” at the US patrol base in Al-Shaddadi, Syria.
The US supported SDF have responded to Turkish airstrikes by suspending operations against Islamic State in order to focus their efforts on preparations for what they call an imminent Turkish ground invasion. Following recent strikes, officials in Ankara and Washington emphasized that close coordination between the two is necessary in order to prevent any harm to US forces. While the US is seeking to restrain Turkish military activity in Syria, Erdogan remains undeterred as he holds discussions with Russia on the future of northern Syria.
Kosovo and Serbia Reach Deal on Licence Plate Dispute
After failing to ink a deal earlier in the week, Kosovo and Serbia have finally reached a European Union-brokered agreement to end a dispute over license plates. The agreement, made in Brussels, paves the way for the two countries to focus on an EU proposal to normalize relations between the two countries — a move that Belgrade and ethnic Serbs in Kosovo routinely reject.
Both nations diverge in their views on Kosovo’s status as a country following the Kosovo War of the late 1990s and Kosovo’s subsequent independence in 2008. The dispute over license plates erupted after Pristina attempted to impose rules that require members of its Serb minority to exchange their Serbian license plates for local ones since September 2021. However, the move was met with violent resistance by local Serbs living in Kosovo. The sudden elevation of the license plate dispute had prompted the question of whether this will turn into a regional conflict.
The EU then stepped up efforts over recent weeks to mediate the dispute in order to prevent a rise in political violence in the Balkans. The EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has been central to these efforts, working to delay the implementation of Pristina’s new rules and supporting negotiations between the Serbian and Kosovan governments. While talks in Brussels earlier in the week failed to yield a solution to the dispute, officials were finally able to reach a compromise on Thursday.
Borrell has said that the deal reached will entail Serbia ceasing to issue licence plates with markings indicating Kosovan cities, while Kosovo will stop any further actions related to the “re-registration of vehicles.” Borrell added that following the agreement, discussions will be held by both parties and Brussels to discuss an EU proposal supported by France and Germany that sets up a path for the two countries to normalize relations.
Israel to Legalize More Settlements in the West Bank
According to Israeli media reports, the incoming coalition government in the Israeli Knesset has agreed to legalize Israeli outposts in the West Bank within the first 60 days of a government being sworn in.
Israeli settlements are typically large in scale and are protected by Israeli law. The much smaller outposts in question are communities of Jewish settlers built on land taken from Palestinians in the West Bank that do not yet receive legal protections. There are reportedly about 50 such outposts in the West Bank at this time and it is unclear if the decision was taken to legalise all of them.
Conflict has seen a rise in recent months across the West Bank as Israeli military operations and far-right violence grow in number and intensity. This has had the effect of increasing the near-term risk of new militant attacks within Israel, and could potentially lead to a larger flare-up of violence given rising uncertainty over the future of the Palestinian government. An increase in attacks also comes amid worsening security conditions stemming from poor economic conditions and increased settler violence.
Further threatening stability in the West Bank are the recent electoral gains made by Israel's far-right politicians. Far-right political actors will play an important role in Israel's new government, likely to lead to policies centred around a stronger crackdown on Palestinian militancy and increased settlement activity in the West Bank. Israel’s response to recent attacks on settlers in Jerusalem are a case in point that marks a new phase of confrontation between the Palestinians and Israel, posing challenges to stability across the occupied territories.