In Geopolitics This Week
Five primers for building US-Russia Relations, Switzerland approaching its own European drama, China's third aircraft carrier under construction, and other stories.
Monday, June 14th
The Iranian Navy in the Belly of the Beast
Pentagon officials became aware of an Iranian navy presence in the southern Atlantic in late May, when they ascertained that a repurposed oil tanker and a newly built frigate had sailed past the Cape of Good Hope.
Reports suggest that officially, the Iranian naval presence was there to improve their “seafaring capacity” in untested waters far from home. But the reality might be closer to Iran flexing its muscle and projecting power beyond its borders. And it has stirred concerns, intentionally or otherwise, as US officials worry that a larger ship may be carrying weapons to Iran’s ally, Venezuela.
Both the US and the EU has an active arms embargo against Venezuela. The US may employ this legal argument to accompany any military action and it has publicly warned both Venezuela and Cuba to turn the ships away from their ports. If the ships turn up in the Caribbean Sea, US Southern Command might take action to interdict them, with a potential escalation possible but unlikely.
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Fears in Ukraine on the Eve of Biden-Putin Summit
Biden spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the phone before his talks with the Russian counterpart. But the phone call may have been more symbolic than anything else, for as far as Ukrainian interests are concerned, the White House has already delt Kiev a difficult hand by letting Russia complete the first section of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The Biden administration refused to impose strict sanctions against the gas pipeline operator, in large part due to an unwillingness to harm relations with Germany. Another possible reason for a recent softening of the US posture on the pipeline is the desire to open a dialogue with Russia from a position of power, while retaining the ability to block the construction of the Russian pipeline in the future.
If the United States does not impose any sanctions and allows the construction of the pipeline to complete, it will mean that the US and Russia were able to agree to some form of status quo regarding Ukraine. It may also be a signal that in the near-term, it is more favourable for Washington to keep Moscow from alignment with Beijing, and to keep it from outright hostility through cyber-attacks, than it is to support the interests of Ukraine.
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Tuesday, June 15th
US Space Force on the Rise
Despite the widespread ridicule that the newest branch of the United States military — the United States Space Force — received when it was first announced by the Trump Administration, a throw of support from Biden has solidified the initiative as a bureaucratic means to address future US security challenges in space.
Congress is providing this new military branch with its first budget effective from late last year and the department will soon take on satellite communications responsibilities from the Navy and Air Force. This is the first defence bill that has separated funding for Space Force operations, maintenance, procurement and R&D, while the Space Force military and civilian personnel funding will remain as part of the Air Force’s budget.
As long as China, Russia and the United States all harbour these suspicions of each other, they will each act like these advanced weapons are being developed by the other. Fear, doubt and preparation for military contingencies drives international arms races, and while the hardware has drastically changed, the mistrust and uncertainty has not.
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Five Primers for a Cohesive US-Russia Relationship
As US decision-makers look for the way forward in navigating against both China and Russia, analysts have argued that attempts to forge a coherent Russia policy have been derailed because of a failure to align policies with US interests. What, though, are US national interests in relation to Russia? According to a recent publication by Russia Matters, they are:
Preventing nuclear war and proliferation: Arms control expert Alexandra Bell argues that any attempts to reduce nuclear risks globally without the cooperation of Russia are bound to be unsuccessful. She stresses this point because she believes tensions around the world “are now at the highest levels seen since the end of the Cold War.”
Maintaining a balance of power in Europe and Asia: Nikolas K. Gvosdev concludes that US interests are better served with Russia remaining an “independent pole within the international system.” Because the US seeks to “retain a favourable balance of power in both regions,” it wants to avoid a scenario where Russia and China form a regional bloc.
Preventing terrorist attacks on U.S. homeland and assets abroad: The judgement of George Beebe is that Russia has demonstrated an “ability to help the United States prevent terrorist attacks on US targets” and that Russia is highly unlikely to facilitate terrorist attacks against the United States.
Ensuring energy security: Li-Chen Sim asserts that when it comes to energy security the United States is in a unique position, balancing “the consumer-exporter divide almost equally.” Though Russia has little effect on the global availability of energy, it can still strongly influence US gasoline prices.
Stability of the international economy: Joseph Haberman considers how Russia uses its limited resources to assert itself globally, at times at the expense of US interests. He notes that, “because of its reliance on fossil fuels for budget revenue, Moscow has its own vested interest in a robust international economy.”
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Wednesday, June 16th
Switzerland Wants to Renegotiate its Relationship with the EU
While Switzerland is not an EU member state, in many respects it comes close to one in practice. Switzerland is a member of the border-free Schengen Area, is closely integrated with the EU in transport, research, knowledge-sharing programs, and enjoys full access to the single market in critical sectors.
But Switzerland has lately been jostling for more favourable terms in its relationship with the EU, particularly following Britain’s exit from the bloc. Among the thorns in the EU’s side have been Switzerland’s positions against the EU’s freedom-of-movement rights, social security benefits, and its concerns about domestic wage levels.
The EU must soon make difficult decisions, including the status of Switzerland’s participation in the Horizon Europe research program. Research cooperation, while mutually beneficial, is one such area where the EU might take a tough stance, but with the Swiss emphasising their monetary contributions to the EU, it is hard to see the EU having much to haggle over.
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China Already Building its Third Aircraft Carrier
China is making steady progress in constructing its third aircraft carrier. Commercial satellite imagery shows significant developments in the construction of the vessel and additional improvements to infrastructure.
China’s third aircraft carrier, the Type 003, will be larger than the Liaoning and Shandong — currently in the PLA Navy’s fleet — which each measure 304.5 meters in length. As the flight deck has been taking shape over the course of construction, the Type 003’s overall length has grown and is now estimated to be approximately 315 meters in length.
The Type 003 will also likely feature a flight deck with a “catapult assisted take-off but arrested recovery” (CATOBAR) system. This would mark a major upgrade from the Liaoning and Shandong, both of which utilise the less advanced ski jump-style system. The use of catapults will allow for heavier payloads and more fuel, as well as the deployment of larger aircraft.
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Thursday, June 17th
Who Came Out on Top in the Biden-Putin Summit
For Joe Biden, it was a chance to demonstrate to his domestic and international audiences that he can hold his own against a tough opponent. For Biden especially the summit might have gone badly, with Russia hawks back home claiming that he was submitting to Vladimir Putin just by holding a meeting with him. But Biden’s expectations were justifiably modest, as he said that “the bottom line is I told President Vladimir Putin that we'd like to possess some basic rules of the road that we are able to all abide by.”
For Putin, it was a much-needed reaffirmation of Moscow’s significance as a global player. Putin was able to project the hope of a detente in US-Russian relations to his domestic and international audiences, as well as reclaim a shred of legitimacy. For his part, Putin was not confrontational, speaking of some “glimmers" of “family trust" in future cybersecurity cooperation.
In all, Biden and Putin were able to take small steps toward repairing an abysmal diplomatic relationship between Washington and Moscow. Both sides agreed to resume respective ambassadorial posts in Washington and Moscow, continue dialogue on cybersecurity and arms control, and their joint statement restated the principle that a war by nuclear means “must never be fought.”
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Philippine Navy Looks to the Future
Since 2013, the Philippine Navy has sought to replace a large part of its naval assets with newer platforms as part of a military modernisation program and the Philippines wants to include modern submarines in its naval capabilities going forward. The introduction of submarines could expand Philippine Navy’s capabilities into the sub-surface domain, enabling the country to effectively conduct stealth, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions.
But Abdul Rahman Yaacob argues that in its current state, the Philippine Navy cannot afford to maintain a persistent naval presence due to a lack of surface platforms. He notes that diverting limited resources for the acquisition of submarines may run contrary to the Philippines’ maritime security interests.
According to Abdul Rahman Yaacob, given the current security environment in which the Philippines operations, and the financial constraints with which the Philippines must account for in the immediate and medium-term, the Philippine Navy should first and foremost seek to strengthen its surface fleet, both in terms of numbers and capabilities.
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Friday, June 18th
The ASEAN Search for a Third Way
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries — whose national economic and political interests regularly collide — often appeal to the same principles to back their differing positions. That has the consequence of pulling ASEAN in different directions.
Furthermore, great power policies, particularly those of China and the United States, now exacerbate the situation. The ease with which ASEAN's members can come into conflict and its consensus-driven decision-making can become deadlocked marks the limits of the organisation’s success.
In this context, ASEAN nations are seeking to avoid being drawn into a US-China confrontation, preferring to emphasise cooperation above ‘choosing sides.' Singapore, for instance, watches with concern as “larger powers position themselves more aggressively against each other.” Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen also said that Singapore will “maintain its strong friendships with both and avoid choosing sides.”
But Felix K. Chang suggests that the foreign policy options available to Southeast Asian leaders have significantly narrowed. This means the moment of choice is approaching for many, as US policymakers seem to remain committed to a confrontational policy toward China in the near-term.
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US Space Force Exploring Directed-Energy Systems
The Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond acknowledged that the US is developing directed-energy systems in order to maintain American space superiority.
The Missile Defense Agency has in the past invested in the testing of space-based lasers to intercept ballistic missiles, and other nations have fielded ground-based laser dazzling weapons that can blind on orbit sensors. However, the Space Force has been quiet about the kinds of weapons it is developing to protect its satellites or defeat enemy satellites.
In a report earlier this year, the Center for Strategic and International Studies suggested to the Space Force to develop various orbital laser weapons to defend US satellites. Titled Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space, the report outlines various types of anti-satellite weapons and ways the Space Force could defend against them.
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