In Geopolitics This Week
The East African Community Announces DRC Peace Talks, Russia’s Defence Industry Experiencing Turbulence, Iranian Drones Depend on Parts Produced by the US and its Allies, and other stories.
The East African Community Announces DRC Peace Talks
As government forces clashed with rebels just north of the city of Goma over the weekend, East African leaders announced peace talks in a bid to stabilise the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
The East African Community has stated that it will hold a dialogue centred on bringing about a peace agreement within eastern DRC on November 21st in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. DRC government sources have said that its military had engaged the M23 rebel group in Mwaro, a village about 20km (12 miles) north of Goma, which is a major commercial hub of one million people.
Days later, the East African Community announced that Kenya’s former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Rwandan leader Paul Kagame have agreed on the need for M23 rebels to cease fire and withdraw from captured territories in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This should add to the mounting pressure on the rebel group to cease offensive operations.
M23 rebels have made considerable gains in recent weeks, advancing towards Goma as fighting with government forces intensifies. The rebels seized vast swathes of territory in 2012 and briefly overran Goma before being driven out by Congolese and UN forces the following year. The M23 rebel group then signed a peace deal in 2013, under which its fighters were integrated into the DRC army.
Russia’s Defence Industry Experiencing Turbulence
The United States continues to impose costs on Russia via the imposition of strict sanctions. Washington this week imposed a new round of sanctions on a list of people and firms that it accuses of involvement in supporting Russia’s military. The latest financial and diplomatic penalties target a range of entities, including a French, Swiss and a Taiwanese company.
The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control and the State Department designated 14 people, 28 entities and eight aircraft identified as being part of a transnational network that procures technology for the Russian military. All the entities are accused of being financial facilitators or enablers of Russia’s military supply chain, which the US has committed to disrupting.
This effort appears to be showing results. In recent weeks Russia has made attempts to restore at least part of the arms and ammunition already spent in Ukraine after almost nine months of its bloody war. Publicly, Moscow declares that nothing serious is impeding these re-production efforts and that the Russian defence industry factories will have no problem increasing their productivity. However, sanctions are beginning to impact Russia's ability to reinforce more advanced systems.
The Russian defence industry suffers from a severe personnel gap, estimated to be around 400,000 workers short. Another major challenge is the average production rate of the Russian defence industry. In particular, Russia's ability to produce fighter aircraft, attack helicopters and multiple-launch rocket systems appears limited for the foreseeable future, putting into question Moscow's ambitions to fully reinforce its armed forces fighting in Ukraine.
Iranian Drones Depend on Parts Produced by the US and its Allies
Studies of downed drones in Ukraine have revealed that the majority of the parts found in downed Iranian drones are reportedly manufactured in the United States, Europe, and other countries allied to the US, according to documents obtained by the Wall Street Journal.
The revelation puts a spotlight on Iran's successes in building up a potent domestic arms industry using commercially available parts that can be obtained while evading US sanctions. Three-quarters of the component parts found in Iranian drones operated by Russia in Ukraine are said to be produced in the US.
The Iranian-made Mohajer suicide drone, for instance, is assembled from parts produced in a number of different countries, with most components made within the US. The drone has also been found to be powered by an Austrian engine, a Japanese camera, a laser rangefinder made in China, and an aerial bomb produced in Iran. Most of these parts seem to bypass export controls, can be easily purchased online, and are supplied to Iran via third countries.
Ukrainian defence personnel are now reportedly relaying serial numbers and other data about these foreign-made parts to their allies, with Washington and Brussels eager to sanction entities associated with the supply of arms and weapons technologies to Russia’s military. Iran’s UN mission has said Tehran is willing to meet with Ukrainian technical experts and launch an investigation into the origin of the drone and its parts. However, there are few incentives for Iran to abandon its drone acquisition network built out of front companies and other proxies in third countries.