In Geopolitics This Week
Russia Conducts Anti-Satellite Missile Test, The UK Loses F-35B Fighter Aircraft in the Mediterranean, Poland Relies on National Power to Curb Migration Crisis, and other stories.
Monday, November 15th
Russia Conducts Anti-Satellite Missile Test
Russia has conducted a new anti-satellite missile test, bringing about a dangerous cloud of space debris in the process. The anti-satellite missile was launched from the ground and aimed at one of Russia’s own satellites, — Kosmos-1408 — a satellite in orbit since 1982 and no longer in operational use. The destruction of the obsolete satellite is said to have generated more than 1,500 pieces of debris, threatening other satellites as well as the International Space Station (ISS). Crew aboard the ISS were ordered to retreat into the Soyuz and Crew Dragon crafts as the space station neared the debris field caused by the test. The launch marks the third anti-satellite test conducted by Russia this year, and this latest launch has been condemned by the United States.
Anti-satellite weapons — such as the one tested by Russia — shatter their intended targets and pose a space hazard by creating a cloud of fragments and debris which can collide with other objects, with the potential to set off a chain reaction of projectiles. While the ISS is fitted with dedicated debris shields designed to withstand impact from particles as large as 1 cm in diameter, the unpredictability of debris trajectory is nonetheless a real cause for concern. While small pieces of debris have on many occasions collided with the ISS, thus far, no such collisions have seriously damaged the station, nor have such events come to dramatically affecting the safety of the crew or the operation of the ISS mission.
But this latest anti-satellite missile test has been condemned by the United States, which claims its agencies received no advanced warning. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the test, and called upon allies as well as “all responsible spacefaring nations” to increase their efforts at establishing internationally-recognised norms aimed at limiting such tests. The United States relies on a vast network of satellites for commercial and military purposes, which means Russian anti-satellite capabilities pose a direct threat to their satellite constellation. Russia’s space agency Roscosmos rebuked US accusations and stressed that it was closely monitoring the debris situation in order to “prevent and counter” all threats to the ISS and its crew.
Read more about this story here.
China Making Strides in Domestically Developed Jet Engines
China has for many years sought to develop powerful jet engines for use in the production of advanced fighter aircraft. But despite the best efforts of Chinese engineers, its domestic engine designs have not been able to reach a stage reliable enough to be fitted onto aircraft intended for active military service. While China has long relied on importing jet engines used in its advanced fighter programs from Russia, China’s intensified efforts at cultivating a domestic aircraft manufacturing industry are slowly paying off, reducing Beijing’s reliance on imports. China now appears to be closing in on Russian capabilities in engine performance and reliability, and is even beginning to surpass Russian designs in other key categories.
The Chinese aircraft manufacturing industry is booming. Today, many of the components required for the production of advanced engines used in China’s fighter jets come from Chinese suppliers who are continually developing and perfecting their production capabilities. As Beijing imports fewer and fewer parts needed for its engine designs, Chinese engineers continue to improve the design and manufacturing problems of its locally-produced WS-10 and WS-15 jet engines. For instance, China’s WS-10C engine is now in mass production, which means that China will soon possess an improved and reliable engine to be fitted into its J-20 fighter aircraft.
The domestically made WS-10 and WS-10C engines going into mass production also means that China will no longer depend on the imports of the Russian AF-31 engine which is currently used in most Chinese fighter jets. Both Russia and China are seeking to domestically build an engine that will match the performance of the US-made F119, which is fitted into the advanced F-22 and F-35 fighter jets and enables agile manoeuvring and super cruise capabilities. At the moment, China appears ahead of Russia in the race to match the performance of the F119. The introduction of the J-31 and J-20 fighter aircraft is a tell-tale sign that China is determined to develop its own high-tech military gear. At the same time, China is eager to develop these technologies by encouraging domestic programs which will see competing designs as part of the development process.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday, November 16th
Ceasefire Between Azerbaijan and Armenia Remains Fragile
Intense fighting has once again broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The latest escalation took place after several days of rising tensions, which included multiple exchanges of fire, and road traffic restricted by Azerbaijani forces on two roads along the country’s border with Armenia. Azerbaijani forces have maintained checkpoints which have targeted Iranian trucks attempting to bring supplies to Armenia through the disputed Karabakh region. Recent escalatory actions taken by both sides are occurring just a year after the signing of the ceasefire that ended outright war between the two, and the situation remains fragile.
Last week saw signs of progress in resolving the feud when the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Paris. But since then, as political tensions have transformed into military skirmishes, upholding the ceasefire agreement has evidently not been the priority of either Baku or Yerevan. In the face of renewed military clashes, each side has made appeals to their respective security guarantors rather than each other: Armenian officials conducted talks with their Russian counterparts; while Azerbaijani officials held a phone conversation with the Minister of National Defense of Turkey. All of this is taking place as the two sides are reportedly negotiating new agreements over a formal demarcation of the border and on the opening of new transportation routes between the two countries.
As the primary actor responsible for enforcing the ceasefire, Russia must maintain order through its peacekeeping force. In response to the recent skirmishes, Moscow has called on both sides to cease all hostile military activities. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu attempted to de-escalate by calling on his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to stop actions which further escalate the situation. Shoigu also expressed a readiness to make every possible effort to end the hostilities, return prisoners of war and bring about a lasting solution to the situation. Since Shoigu’s intervention, Russia has said that clashes in Mount Kilisali have stopped and that the situation is back to normal. Whether fighting has indeed ceased is difficult to confirm, but given that negotiations over a lasting agreement are ongoing, each side may yet choose to make gains on the ground in order to achieve a more favourable outcome at the negotiating table.
Read more about this story here.
France Launches Three Intelligence Satellites into Space
France has successfully launched three military signals intelligence satellites into space. The satellites were launched from the country’s spaceport in French Guiana aboard an Arianespace Vega rocket, and will bolster French intelligence collection capabilities. The constellation — called capacité de renseignement électromagnétique spatiale, or CERES — will allow France to have improved access to unique intelligence capabilities by allowing its armed forces to actively listen to radar signals. The three CERES satellites will fly in a triangular formation, circling the Earth over the same location at roughly the same time each day.
The French Minister of Defense, Florence Parly, hailed the launch as a symbol of France’s growing sovereignty and strategic independence in the space domain. CERES is one of many satellite programs being funded under France’s 2019-2025 space programs. The three CERES satellites will enter low-Earth orbit roughly 700 km above the surface, and will considerably bolster the signals intelligence capabilities of the French armed forces by allowing for the collection of data previously inaccessible from sensors on the ground. Until now, France has heavily relied on the United States for this type of intelligence data, but the successful launch of the CERES constellation means France joins a select group of military powers which can boast of indigenous location tracking, jamming, communications, and cyberattack capabilities from space.
The CERES satellites will enable France to better map the locations of telecommunications centres or radars that detect, trigger or control enemy systems. Moreover, France will no longer have to seek out US assistance to support the operations of its armed forces, and will be able to enhance existing air superiority missions while also negating an adversary’s denial of access zones. In addition, these satellites will be of great interest to the French navy because they will enable accurate real-time tracking of ships, whether civilian or military. At a time when the maritime domain is increasingly being contested in the Mediterranean and the Pacific, the capabilities offered by the CERES satellites will enable more effective means of deploying French national maritime power going forward.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday, November 17th
Kenya Discusses Strategic Partnership with the United States
Kenya and the United States have held discussions on the future of their strategic partnership. The second such meeting between the two, talks were carried out under the framework of the Kenya-United States Bilateral Strategic Dialogue and took place in Nairobi. Diplomatic relations between the United States and Kenya have existed since 1964, expanded considerably when Kenya transformed to a multiparty democracy in 1992, and are now at a level not seen before. Today, the US and Kenya cooperate across a number of issues, in particular both are working closely to address regional priorities such as ending the ongoing crises in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan.
To Kenya, the US is a critical partner in a region that is increasingly tumultuous, with Washington providing over $560 million in assistance to Kenya in 2020. The two countries also enjoy a strong economic partnership which translates to just under $1 billion in annual trade between them. The Kenyan economy is particularly benefiting from its participation in the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade program, through which much of the bilateral trade between the countries is conducted. Moreover, with unrest in the region on the rise, Washington has provided considerable financial aid to Nairobi to help the country deal with the flow of refugees stemming from conflicts in the region. Kenya has increasingly come under migratory pressures as over 500,000 refugees have fled Somalia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and other embattled states.
This latest round of talks under the Kenya-United States Bilateral Strategic Dialogue format saw Kenyan Cabinet Secretary for Foreign Affairs Raychelle Omamo and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken discuss ways of strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries going forward. A joint statement released by the two sides following the meeting structured future cooperation between Washington and Nairobi in five pillars: economic prosperity, trade, and investment; defence cooperation; democracy, governance, and civilian security; multilateral and regional issues; and health cooperation.
Read more about this story here.
The UK Loses F-35B Fighter Aircraft in the Mediterranean
A single aircraft of the UK’s most advanced fighter aircraft, the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, has crashed in the Mediterranean while operating from the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth. According to the Ministry of Defence (MOD), an F-35B variant of the Joint Strike Fighter was conducting routing operations in the Mediterranean Sea when the aircraft crashed, with the pilot said to have safely ejected and returned to the HMS Queen Elizabeth. The MOD has offered no further details about the circumstances surrounding the incident but has made a statement clarifying that an investigation is under way. The aircraft concerned is thought to still be in the sea.
The carrier strike group — of which the HMS Queen Elizabeth is a central part of — was on the last leg of its inaugural deployment when the incident took place. Having recently transited through the Suez Canal after sailing to the Asia Pacific as part of a 26,000-nautical-mile deployment, the loss of the F-35B fighter aircraft poses somewhat of an embarrassment on top of the steep financial losses associated with losing such an expensive aircraft. The loss of a flagship fighter jet is a significant blow to any state, but this is especially the case for the UK as the costs associated with the F-35 program are a controversial topic domestically. The UK is already committed to purchase 48 F-35s by 2025 as part of a contract worth roughly £10.5 billion.
While little is known about exactly what caused the aircraft to fall into the Mediterranean Sea, initial analysis points to this being an isolated incident rather than issues pertaining to a fault in the entire F-35 family because other F-35 fighter aircraft were reported to still be airborne without restrictions. Hostile actions have so far been ruled out, but a more detailed explanation for what caused the incident is unlikely before a thorough investigation has been conducted. Still, with the F-35 considered to be the most advanced fighter aircraft operated by any military force in the world, any details released into the public domain about the cause of the incident are unlikely to be thorough in order to avoid revealing sensitive and highly-classified information.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday, November 18th
Nord Stream 2 Certification Process Stalls
The German Federal Network Agency (FNA) has suspended the certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. In justifying the decision, the FNA outlined that the certification process cannot continue unless the operator of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is operating within German territory and not on Swiss territory where the operator Nord Stream 2 AG is currently based. The FNA decision means that Nord Stream 2 AG must now facilitate the transfer of assets and personnel to a new organisation which is registered in Germany. The postponement of the certification process also means that the delivery of natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is unlikely to begin before 2022.
The decision comes as Europe is in the midst of a natural gas supply crisis. Gas consumption in East Asia has risen rapidly, which has led to higher demand, increasing prices, and thereby attracting liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters like the United States to the region. This has had the effect of reducing US LNG exports to Europe with the reduction in European imports across the Atlantic falling by nearly 16 per cent compared to the previous year. In addition, Russia has been unwilling to negotiate short-term contracts at a time when energy prices are rising, and is keen to secure lucrative long-term deals with European capitals.
As European countries struggle with lower supplies, Gazprom will be better positioned over any contractual negotiations regarding supply well into the future. At the same time, the situation is somewhat different that previous such episodes, as Russia too is drawn in to the growing demand in Asia. Russia’s natural gas industry has found some success in negotiating alternative contracts in the form of rapid supply increases to China. A proposed new pipeline could even tap the same gas fields as those currently supplying Europe, allowing Moscow to switch supply flows between the European and Asian markets at will. This would strengthen Russia’s hand in any negotiations and leave members of the European Union increasingly dependent on US LNG.
Read more about this story here.
Poland Signs Missile Launcher Deal with the United Kingdom
The United Kingdom will be closely involved in helping Poland build a short-range air defence system. Poland has signed a framework agreement which will see the country's state-controlled defence consortium Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ) work together with Britain's MBDA Missile Systems for the production of a mobile short-range missile system (code-name Narew). The Polish president hailed the deal as “the largest” and “most complex” in the entire history of the Polish Armed Forces. The value of the contract is estimated to be anywhere between $12.5 to $17.6 billion.
Narew will replace three aging capabilities with one new system, and PGZ aims to create these short-range anti-aircraft missile launchers for use by the Polish army. The basic task of the Narew system will be to protect Polish Armed Forces units, facilities and air bases together with US-made Patriot missile systems, and in doing so create a national air defence system which integrates with coalition forces. The primary role of the Narew system will be to engage multi-role aircraft, cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. According to initial forecasts, the first live firing of the system elements is expected to take place in 2026.
The agreement will provide enhanced security and defence development for both countries, simultaneously boosting the missile development in both Poland and the UK. The Narew system itself is a state-of-the-art configuration that is planned to include early warning radars, optoelectronic sensors, and other critical components. The contract’s steep value is said to be justified by the fact that it includes a transfer of sensitive technologies to Poland. Moreover, the deal was structured in way that will complement two other intermediate-range missile programmes. The Narew is yet another significant defence contract signed by Warsaw in recent months, and the deal follows purchases of 250 M1A2 Abrams SEPv3 tanks from the United Sates and 24 Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey.
Read more about this story here.
Friday, November 19th
US Pressures UAE to Cease Port Cooperation with China
In recent years, China has become the largest consumer of Gulf oil. One of the ways in which Beijing taken up such a position is by strengthened its economic ties with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have over time developed into a reliable trade partner. The ties have not been one-sided either, as UAE officials have embraced China’s lucrative infrastructure giants such as Huawei. This closer alignment has caused some discomfort in Washington, as the United States is eager to shut down China’s attempts at expanding into the Gulf.
To counter Chinese encroachment in this region, the Biden administration has reportedly pressured the UAE to halt all construction on an ongoing Chinese port project over suspicions it may one day serve military purposes. US intelligence agencies raised the issue with the US President due to suspicions that the excavation of a huge hole at Khalifa Port, which they feared was built to house a future Chinese military contingent. Evidence of what were deemed suspicious activities at the port came via classified satellite imagery, which indicated that China was building some sort of military installation as part of its port development project. Under these domestic pressures, the Biden administration has formulated a response and launched a diplomatic effort to persuade UAE officials to stop China’s construction efforts in the country.
The discussions over China’s influence in strategic ports between Abu Dhabi and Washington came as the two are negotiating the transfer of advanced military assets to the UAE. The US has insisted that security cooperation between China and the UAE could threaten a massive $23b arms transfer that would see Washington sell some 50 F-35 fighter aircraft and 18 Reaper drones to Abi Dhabi. The Biden administration has said it is “fully committed” to the proposed sale, with the halt in Chinese port construction seemingly solving the numerous differences in the ongoing negotiations between Washington and Abu Dhabi. The US remains the largest arms supplier to the Middle East, and looks to maintain that role as it continues to negotiate a significant arms deal with Abu Dhabi.
Read more about this story here.
Poland Relies on National Power to Curb Migration Crisis
Poland’s response to the flow of refugees stemming from the country’s border with Belarus has largely been unilateral. Due to Warsaw’s ongoing sovereignty disputes with Brussels, the country has neglected to utilise EU institutions in order to pressure Belarus away from its hostile use of immigrants fleeing conflicts in the Middle East and Central Asia. The result has been uncomfortably playing out at the border between the two countries, with thousands of desperate people huddling in the cold. But help from the EU is conditional, and would likely involve Polish concessions in the ongoing dispute over the supremacy of EU law over Polish law.
Since the crisis erupted, Poland has thus far faced the brunt of the migratory pressures facilitated by Belarus. Throughout the crisis, the country has faced three main dangers as a result of the confrontation. First, there was a tangible fear that the border infrastructure of Poland would not withstand the pressures and be breached. Second, as the migrants approaching the border grew in numbers, it quickly became apparent that the humanitarian plight of the migrants could lead to mounting public and diplomatic pressure to admit the unfortunate refugees. Third, both Warsaw and Vilnius feared that EU member states would go about dealing with the crisis via vastly different approaches, thereby hindering EU unity on the matter.
But while a unified EU voice in line with Polish interests would have been the ideal scenario for Warsaw, it was a diplomatic channel Polish officials did not wish to rely on due to an ongoing Polish battle against EU institutions over the politicisation of Poland’s judiciary. Relying instead on national power, officials in Warsaw chose to declare a state of emergency and heavily reinforced its military presence at the border, thereby rallying domestic support while rhetorically charging national fervour at the expense of European support. Fearful of mounting political pressures to take in refugees, Warsaw has also refused to allow journalists to approach the border area, thereby attempting to stay on top of the narrative over the events unfolding there. But such a unilateral approach has demonstrated disunity across the EU, both Germany and France sought to defuse the crisis by speaking to Belarus directly rather than first and foremost coordinating with Warsaw.
Read more about this story here.