In Geopolitics This Week
Efforts to Facilitate Humanitarian Relief in Gaza Face Hurdles, Bulgaria Raises Transit Fees of Balkan Stream Pipeline, Qatar's Foreign Policy Shift and Its Implications, and other stories.
Efforts to Facilitate Humanitarian Relief in Gaza Face Hurdles
Some tentative progress has emerged in facilitating humanitarian relief to Gaza amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Calls for a ceasefire failed after the United States exercised its veto to block a UN Security Council calling for an immediate truce and humanitarian access. Nevertheless, Egypt has agreed to open the Rafah crossing for aid transfers, while Israel approved the provision of some basic supplies to Gaza's 2 million residents. Even limited aid shipments would provide vital help, though significant obstacles remain, as evidenced by the small number of aid trucks allowed access.
The United States has taken a firm stance in support of Israel at the UN Security Council, emerging as a significant impediment to ceasefire efforts. This was evident when Washington exercised its veto power to block a draft resolution proposed by Brazil that called for a humanitarian truce. While US officials argued that the resolution lacked balance, the veto effectively halted any negotiations on a compromise text. By unapologetically shielding Israel from criticism, the US has reinforced perceptions of its policy bias towards Israel, even as Washington states its commitment to de-escalation.
That an agreement was made is a sign that urgent international action is possible, but the scale of assistance falls far short of the needs of the population. Nevertheless, if aid continues to flow from a broad range of international actors, Israel may find it difficult to continue military strikes into Gaza without spoiling relations with some of its partners. Further diplomatic outreach by regional stakeholders could set the precedent for other limited agreements between the warring sides. But any cooperation faces immense obstacles, given deep distrust.
In the near-term, facilitating more substantive aid access to Gaza faces steep obstacles, especially because preventing renewed war still requires the concerted effort of outside powers. Absent political progress, violence seems destined to recur, fuelling mutual perceptions of insecurity. Longer-term, the crisis is yet another example of the persistent failure to resolve core disputes. Recurring violence radicalizes generations, entrenching extremism. Israel seeks to degrade Hamas, but military force alone cannot eliminate it completely. A sustainable political settlement remains elusive.
Bulgaria Raises Transit Fees of Balkan Stream Pipeline
Bulgaria has introduced a punitive 20% tax on Russian gas transiting its territory, a move aimed at reducing Russia's energy revenues and pressuring other European states to diversify away from Russian supplies. The levy applies to pipeline gas passing through Bulgaria en route to other European markets like Hungary and Serbia. While Bulgaria no longer directly imports Russian gas, its role as a strategic transit hub still gives it leverage to undermine Russian energy revenues.
Bulgaria has defended its decision by emphasizing its goal to create competition in the gas market. The Bulgarian government believes that this tax will not significantly affect end-consumers' gas prices, but will instead target Gazprom's profits. According to Bulgarian Finance Minister Asen Vasilev, the tax aims to make it less profitable for Gazprom to ship gas via Bulgaria. The government has also argued that this tax is a step toward reducing Gazprom's influence in the region. The move represents Bulgaria firmly aligning its policies with the West's broader effort to financially squeeze Russia and degrade its ability to wage a war in Ukraine.
Hungary and Serbia, two European countries that heavily depend on Russian gas for their energy needs, have been hit hard by Bulgaria's new tax. Equivalent to about one-fifth of current market gas prices, the tax was seen as a direct threat to the security of their energy supply. Both countries considered the move as a hostile one, jeopardizing their energy security and potentially leading to a drastic increase in gas prices. At the same time, Greece stands to lose out on affordable natural gas because of the tax as well. Greece covers a significant portion of its gas demand using Russian gas, so the tax could potentially see natural gas prices rise and impact its energy security.
The long-term implications of this move are still uncertain. The European Commission has been in discussion with Bulgarian authorities about the new tax. The legality of the tax is also being questioned, as no European country is allowed to unilaterally impose tariffs without approval from the EU. If the European Commission approves the tax, it will be essential for Gazprom to decide whether to absorb the extra cost or cease all supplies. Given enough time, new market realities may eventually push Hungary, Serbia, and other affected countries to expedite efforts to reduce their dependence on Russian natural gas.
Qatar's Foreign Policy Shift and Its Implications
Qatar's decision to support the freezing of Iranian funds marks a pivotal shift in its foreign policy, signalling a growing alignment with the United States. This shift is driven by Qatar's expanding role as a global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter and its increasing cooperation with the US against Iran. As Qatar deepens its ties with the US, it stands to gain strategic benefits, particularly in economic terms. However, this alignment also exposes Qatar to potential risks, as it becomes increasingly entangled in regional conflicts.
Traditionally, Qatar has practised a balanced and neutral foreign policy centred on pragmatic security and economic interests. It has leveraged its energy wealth and mediating role to maintain ties with a diverse range of global powers, including the US, Russia, and Iran. This nuanced balancing act aimed to ensure Qatar's sovereignty and economic prosperity by avoiding entangling alliances. The evolving regional landscape now appears to be reshaping Qatar's calculus toward alignment with the West in advancing its strategic interests.
Qatar is pivoting away from its traditional foreign policy stance, aligning more overtly with the US, just as it secures major LNG deals with Europe and China. This shift is exemplified by the US designation of Qatar as a Major Non-NATO Ally in 2022, and its recent long-term LNG agreements to supply Germany, France and the Netherlands. These deals are expressly aimed at helping Europe reduce its dependence on Russian gas. With its North Field expansion, Qatar is positioned to become an indispensable LNG provider on a global scale. While sacrificing balanced neutrality, Qatar gains enhanced security ties with the US and long-term access to Western markets.
Qatar's tilt toward the US positions Doha within the Western geopolitical camp after years of delicate regional balancing between powers. While Qatar gains security benefits from expanded US backing, it also inherits disputes with rival states like Iran more directly. But losing perceptions of neutrality may reduce its ability to mediate conflicts, and may also make Qatar a more attractive target for US adversaries like Iran or Russia. Overt US alignment represents a risky foreign policy gamble for Doha, especially as many of its neighbours still look to Washington with deep distrust.