In Geopolitics This Week
Military Takes Power in Gabon After a Coup, The UAE Embraces Economic Diplomacy, Deadline Nears for Iran-Iraq Agreement on Kurdish Opposition Groups, and other stories.
Military Takes Power in Gabon After a Coup
In a dramatic turn of events, Gabon awoke to a military coup on Wednesday morning, as officers seized state media to announce the dissolution of government institutions and the deposition of President Ali Bongo Ondimba. The coup came hours after Gabon's electoral commission declared Bongo the winner of Saturday's contentious presidential poll, extending his family's rule to over 50 years. The military cited electoral fraud, as well as the need to end the Bongo dynasty's concentrated power and perceived corruption, as justification for the coup.
The coup faction is led by Lt. Kelly Ondo Obiang, commander of the Republican Guard, and Lt. Junior Guy Bertrand Moussavou, a former intelligence officer. Calling itself the Patriotic Movement of the Defense and Security Forces of Gabon, the faction’s stated aim is to establish a “national transitional council” to rewrite Gabon's constitution and laws from scratch. The officers also vowed to hold transparent elections once institutions are rebuilt. Bongo, who has held the presidency since 2009, was placed under house arrest along with his family according to the coup announcement. Public reaction to the coup remains mixed so far, with some taking to the streets to celebrate the end of Bongo's rule.
So far the African Union, France, the EU, and the UN have all firmly denounced the coup attempt. But Gabon's economic reliance on oil revenue may disincentivize severe punitive measures. Previous coups in West and Central African countries have triggered strong condemnation, but the international response to this coup may be different, given the push by the US and its allies to keep oil prices low. Gabon's sizable oil production, accounting for 40% of GDP and contributing to long-term political stability, may temper foreign reactions as actors weigh the prudence of imposing sanctions that could disrupt output and lead to increased oil prices.
The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining the durability and public acceptance of Gabon's new military junta. Widespread public dissatisfaction with Bongo's rule could grant the coup plotters some popular support. But Bongo loyalists embedded in security forces may still actively resist the coup, risking violent clashes and chaos. The junta will need to maintain oil production and demonstrate governing competence to retain control. While the coup reflects rising regional instability, Gabon's trajectory remains highly uncertain at this moment.
The UAE Embraces Economic Diplomacy
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is rapidly expanding its roster of international economic partnerships, with new trade agreements with regional powers Turkey and Indonesia going into effect on September 1st. These moves align closely with Abu Dhabi's strategic efforts to continue diversifying its economy and reduce reliance on oil and gas revenues. The UAE has actively courted enhanced trade ties across emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East as it looks to solidify sustainable growth for its non-oil sectors.
The comprehensive trade deal with Turkey aims to increase bilateral trade to $40 billion within five years, reflecting warming ties between the two nations after years of tensions. The ratification came just days after Turkish President Erdogan's re-election victory, with Abu Dhabi keen to strengthen strategic relations with Ankara given Turkey's growing regional influence. Meanwhile, Indonesia represents a key trading partner for the UAE in Southeast Asia under its Look East policy. The UAE hopes these latest trade pacts will accelerate access and investments into priority sectors such as logistics, tourism, healthcare, and agriculture.
Fuelled by its robust trade performance so far in 2022, the UAE has set the ambitious goal of generating over $1 trillion in non-oil foreign trade by 2031 under its Vision 2031 development plan. In just the first half of 2023, the nation's non-oil trade flows hit $338 billion — representing a sizable 14.4% increase from last year. With tariffs reduced and supply chains strengthened via its expanding trade partnerships across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, the UAE has reinforced its role as a global trade, logistics, and transit hub.
Leveraging investor-friendly policies, public-private partnerships, and accelerated digital transformation, the UAE aims to propel its non-oil sector growth in line with its national development vision. The country's continued economic expansion despite global crises demonstrates meaningful progress toward sustainable development and reduced dependency on hydrocarbons. Its web of trade partnerships diversifies risks and provides new opportunities for Emirati and foreign businesses alike.
Deadline Nears for Iran-Iraq Agreement on Kurdish Opposition Groups
Earlier this year, Iran and Iraq reached a notable agreement to disarm and relocate Kurdish opposition groups. Now, the deadline of September 19th is fast approaching, and both sides have come to an agreement on its implementation. Iran explicitly warns it will take direct military action if Iraq fails to fully implement the deal by the deadline. This pact reflects Tehran's acute concerns about the activities of Kurdish groups like the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) and Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), which it accuses of arms smuggling, cross-border attacks, and stoking domestic unrest.
Specifically, the deal obliges Iraq to close all camps operated by Iranian Kurdish groups in northern Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region. Iraq will reportedly disarm members of these groups and move them to undisclosed government-run camps, likely relocating them away from the Iranian border. Iran has long protested the presence of groups like PJAK and PDKI in northern Iraq, claiming they carry out terrorist operations like arms trafficking into Iran and attacks on Iranian security forces. The agreement underscores how Iraq must delicately balance its domestic politics and relations with Iran.
While operational details of the deal remain vague, the pact sheds light on complex regional power dynamics. Iraq maintains autonomy, but still faces extraordinary pressure from Iran on issues related to Tehran’s national security. Kurdish groups based in Iraq are directly impacted by backroom deals between Tehran and Baghdad. The looming September 19th deadline also risks escalation if Iraq does not fully implement the agreed disarmament and relocation of Iranian Kurdish groups by that date. However, the deal also demonstrates Iran and Iraq's ongoing efforts to jointly address this specific security issue through diplomatic cooperation.
Disarming Iranian Kurdish factions would significantly limit cross-border attacks on Iranian territory and forces, but could inflame tensions between the Iraqi government and its own Kurdish population if they perceive the deal as infringing on Kurdish rights or autonomy. The threat of unilateral Iranian military action also persists if Baghdad fails to satisfy the operational details of the deal, including evacuating camps, confiscating weapons, and relocating members by the September deadline. While offering some immediate stability, the pact illustrates the complex intersection between domestic politics, transnational Kurdish aspirations, and Iran's security interests.