In Geopolitics This Week
Ongoing Negotiations Between Russia and Ukraine, NATO Weapons and US Intelligence Effective Against Russian Armour, Finding Alternative Sources of Energy for the US and its Allies, and other stories.
Ongoing Negotiations Between Russia and Ukraine
Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have been conducting extensive talks over the future status of Ukraine. Reports indicate that both sides have been able to agree that Ukraine will not join NATO, but disagreement remains on Ukraine’s neutrality, disarmament, and territorial claims. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are said to be considering a 15-point deal which would see Ukraine renounce its NATO ambitions and agree to not host foreign military bases or foreign weapons in exchange for certain security guarantees. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged that Ukraine will not join NATO, however Ukrainian officials insist on incorporating powerful allies into any “legally verified” security guarantees.
Russian officials have long opposed Ukraine’s NATO prospects and have repeatedly claimed that Ukraine’ de facto integration into NATO is the underlying reason for Russia’s invasion. Yet even if NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table, Ukrainian officials insist that certain Russian “territorial demands” are “completely unacceptable,” indicating an enduring resistance to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Russian proxy Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Russian negotiators continue to make maximalist demands, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stating that NATO states should not supply weapons to Ukraine, and that such weapons pose a significant security threat to Russia. The Russian delegation has reportedly proposed a demilitarization and neutrality model akin to Austria and Switzerland.
Separately, Ukrainian officials are looking to Ankara to be a guarantor of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Turkey has positioned itself as a mediator of sorts, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu embarking on diplomatic visits to both Moscow and Kiev during the week. Cavusoglu discussed a possible ceasefire during diplomatic talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on the 16th of March, and met Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Lviv a day later.
Cavusoglu has proposed that Turkey and Germany act as guarantors in a “collective security agreement.” At the same time, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has maintained that Turkey stands ready to host Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a round of de-escalation talks. While both sides are still far from reaching any peace agreement, reports indicate that both Ukraine and Russia are edging closer to some form of agreement that may pave the way for a total cessation of hostilities in the coming weeks.
NATO Weapons and US Intelligence Effective Against Russian Armour
While the United States has made clear that its forces will not fight or operate overtly in Ukraine, Washington’s vast intelligence network has been actively involved in sharing real-time intelligence with the Ukrainian armed forces since Russia’s invasion began. As US and other NATO countries continue to rapidly supply Ukraine with battlefield supplies, weapons and ammunition, US intelligence operations may be the most valuable form of assistance that Ukraine receives in the war against Russia.
The United States is actively sharing intelligence with Ukraine. A senior Pentagon official has confirmed that the US government is actively sharing “information and intelligence” with Ukrainian forces, stating that it is the Pentagon’s belief such efforts would be “helpful” on the battlefield. Initially restrained by a set of guidelines in the early days of the war, intelligence sharing between US spy agencies and Ukraine’s military command structure has been expanded, and is now a powerful means through which Ukraine’s armed forces are able to identify and eliminate vulnerable Russian positions in real-time. Well-timed gathering and transmission of intelligence data allows Ukrainian forces to target the logistics and supply lines of Russian forces, severely hampering Russia’s ability to conduct operations across all axes of advance.
The Ukrainian armed forces have been able to utilize this intelligence to devastating effect. A string of photos and videos have documented the numerous mangled and destroyed Russian tanks that now litter the battlefield. Unmanned weapons systems and ground-based anti-tank units equipped with accurate intelligence data have been particularly effective at destroying Russian tanks, with Bayraktar TB2 combat drones and Javelin anti-tank missiles used to devastating effect against Russian armoured units. A tank’s turret is particularly vulnerable to missiles, and these anti-tank weapons systems are proving effective despite efforts by Russian forces to protect their tanks.
Unmanned system are proving particularly deadly to modern tanks. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones employed by the Ukrainian armed forces are equipped with four laser-guided missiles, and are capable of loitering in the air for roughly 24 hours. These weapons have the ability to deliver precision strikes while the drone operators remain at a safe distance of up to 185 miles. The Bayraktar drones already demonstrated their value when deployed by the armed forces of Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, and are now proving their effectiveness against the more advanced counter-measures employed by Russia’s armed forces.
While Russian forces in Ukraine have primarily relied on motorized brigades operating without accompanying air defences or surface-to-air missiles, the limited number of Bayraktar TB2 which are in the service of Ukraine have been able to avoid Russian radar and jamming equipment as they deliver devastating strikes against Russian armoured columns. With advanced intelligence data giving Ukrainian commanders the ability to accurately monitor the battlefield and acquire vulnerable targets, the deployment of drones and anti-tank missiles from NATO member states have proven highly-effective at dealing with Russia’s armoured divisions, putting into question the effectiveness of tanks on the modern battlefield.
Finding Alternative Sources of Energy for the US and its Allies
While a harsh set of sanctions continue to fall on the Russian government and those individuals associated with industries critical to its effective operation, one consequence of the ongoing economic war has been the changing nature of Europe’s energy landscape. European governments are joining a set of wide-ranging sanctions against Russia, but those Russian entities which are key to ensuring an uninterrupted flow of Russian natural gas to European capitals have not yet been sanctioned given the lack of alternative energy sources. While EU member states hesitate to endanger their own energy supplies, the United States and its European allies are seeking to secure alternative energy sources.
It is unlikely that alternative gas supply in the kind of volumes EU member states annually import from Russia will be affordable to many countries in Europe. European countries import more pipeline gas from Russia than the entire Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export capacity of the US or Qatar, and with terminals already occupied, new LNG capacity will be difficult to facilitate in the near-term. Europe’s choice basically boils down to keep buying Russian gas or severely limit gas use. In the near-term, Algeria may help to remedy some of the supply shortages, yet this won’t be enough to ease the current situation, and it would only prevent the widespread gas shortages from getting worse. Nevertheless, rising natural gas prices will weigh heavily on the budgets of European governments in the coming months.
Elsewhere, Japan is set to follow in the footsteps of allies in limiting the amount of energy the country imports from energy sources associated with the Russian economy. Further sanctions on Russia could mean that Japan would impose a total halt to Russian imports from two energy projects on Sakhalin island, both of which account for an estimated 8% of the country’s total LNG imports and 4% of its oil imports. Similarly to leaders in Europe, Japanese policymakers will have to consider the country’s energy security when deciding whether to halt imports. Given Japan has already redirected some of its energy imports toward Europe to help alleviate an energy crisis for some of its allies, halting all imports of Russian energy may require energy rationing for the country’s citizens and industries.
In an effort to choke the Russian economy by cutting off Russian energy from global markets, the United States is seeking to increase global supplies by securing energy flows from other sources. In recent years, widespread social discontent in Mozambique has resulted in violent attacks against facilities operated by the government and US-affiliated corporations, with insurgents targeting banks, hotels, and a port in order to cut off government sources of revenue. Since 2018, the insurgency in Mozambique has succeeded in cutting off Africa’s third largest natural gas reserves from global energy markets, with the bulk of these gas reserves located off the coast of Cabo Delgado in Mozambique.
Today, the Mozambican armed forces — assisted by a multinational coalition — are still fighting to regain control of the resource-rich region. As the US gets increasingly involved, the situation in Cabo Delgado directly contributes to instability which impacts a considerable $4.7 billion US Export-Import Bank loan made toward an energy extraction project under Total, as well as up to $1.5 billion in US International Development Finance Corporation for a planned project led by ExxonMobil. By quashing resistance to energy extraction projects in Mozambique, Washington may be able to flood global energy markets with natural gas, thereby facilitating new energy flows toward its allies to help them substitute Russian energy, and denying Russia the ability to find customers for its energy exports.