In Geopolitics This Week
Breakdown of Diplomacy a Hinderance to Peace in Ukraine, Rising Food Prices Threaten Africa and the Middle East, Growing Risks to Stability Across Latin America
Breakdown of Diplomacy a Hinderance to Peace in Ukraine
The ongoing war in Ukraine has illustrated a reality of international politics in which differences have become intractable and no means of resolving the conflict appear to be viable for those involved in the war. With Russia resorting to the widespread use of military force throughout Ukraine, and the United States leading a coalition of countries in pushing back against Russia by using sanctions and sending weapons and aid to Ukraine, all those involved in the conflict are seemingly pursuing a complete victory against the other, with neither side apparently able or willing to seek compromise.
The war has exposed the loss of an ability to communicate between Russia, the United States and Ukraine. This state of affairs has festered over time to a point where any form of constructive dialogue seems impossible between all belligerents. Many politicians and diplomats seem to no longer understand the meaning and value of dialogue as they increasingly do little beyond conveying their unshakeable positions to their perceived enemies without taking the time to engage in a discourse that incorporates the perceptions and fears of all those involved in the dispute.
Similarly, the last three decades has seen a total breakdown of any common interpretation of what legal international framework governs the behaviour of states in the international system. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, a growing distinction between an ‘‘international legal order” and an “international rules-based order” has emerged as the United States and its allies have worked to replace interpretations of the former with the latter. The claim that the two interpretations are one and the same has not been deterred by constant protests expressed by other powers, such as China and Russia, among others.
A peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine may therefore be difficult to accomplish if the belligerents have differing interpretations of the international legal order, and have effectively cut off almost all forms of diplomatic and economic contact. A protracted proxy war between the US, its allies in Europe, and Ukraine on the one side and Russia on the other therefore seems an increasingly likely reality going forward. Worse still, there appear to be few perceived incentives for all sides to seek any form of a compromise, with rhetoric by all those involved in the conflict indicating a total disinterest in ending the war on unfavourable terms.
Rising Food Prices Threaten Africa and the Middle East
World food prices have hit an all-time high in recent weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the conflict continues, countries in Africa and the Middle East are already feeling the ripple effects of a dramatic fall in food supplies from the Black Sea. The subsequent disruptions to agricultural export flows and international sanctions against Russia have led to a sharp rise in prices, and now threaten to create major food crises across the Middle East and Africa.
The fallout on food prices could lead to millions being unable to afford food, which in turn could threaten social stability in politically volatile countries. In war-torn Yemen, wheat prices have already been high, so a further rise could prove disastrous. In Tunisia, people struggle to pay for food imports even as the country undergoes a number of economic and political crises. In Egypt, government officials are closely following food prices, and the country is working on a plan to buy wheat from other regions. Rising fertiliser prices in Nigeria and elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa threaten food production.
Tensions between industry and government over sanctions could cause further turmoil. There is historical evidence to suggest that higher food prices trigger violent riots, and changes in food security are one of the most influential factors contributing to a rise in violent conflict. Those nations that rely on affordable supplies of wheat and other grains from the Black Sea region to feed millions of people now face the possibility of increased political instability. Other large grain producers are being closely watched to see if they can ramp up production in order to fill in the gaps in global food supply, but with energy prices also high, many will face serious issues feeding their populations.
Growing Risks to Stability Across Latin America
A future of increased uncertainty and instability is expected in the near-term for countries in Latin America. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has released a report which focuses on socio-political, economic, and security factors as the key variables threatening stability across the region. According to the report, the region is expected to experience growing instability in the near-term, with several potential flashpoints and risks identified as key drivers of this trend.
The IISS study is underpinned by a concept of stability defined by an (in)capability of the state to perform its main socio-economic, political and security functions. The study recognizes that surging inflation and upcoming fiscal tightening are set to take a toll on real incomes across Latin America, which may ignite social unrest and lead to an increase in violence and instability. Social unrest is also expected to rise across the region due to pervasive discontent over inequality of access to basic services, as well as a perceived inefficiency of government derived from failed structural reforms and stagnant growth. This social unrest is expected to become an important driver of insecurity in many Latin American countries, with the region as a whole undergoing transformation into a complex geopolitical environment.
Making matters worse is the growing competition between the United States and China, with both powers playing a key role in economies across Latin America, and both increasingly perceiving the other as a threat to their own strategic interests here and elsewhere in the world. The increased geopolitical relevance of the region to great power competition between China and the US cannot be understated, with China’s growing influence over economies in the region set to be challenged more actively by the US going forward as Washington continues to view much of the region as part of its own sphere of influence.
Washington remains sensitive to the growing influence of major outside powers in Latin America. Countries in Latin America remain subject to the interests and designs of the US in many ways even today. Since US President James Monroe first articulated Washington’s imperial designs on the Western Hemisphere in 1823, the region has remained within the purview of — and subject to the interests of — successive US administrations. In the latest iteration of this imperialist tendency, US President Joe Biden has branded Latin America as “America’s front yard.”
The US exercises an outsized role in the region that is derived from an asymmetrical relationship of power that exists between countries in Latin America and the US, an asymmetry which continues to animate the perceptions and actions of US policymakers and elites. Leaders in Washington continue to view US security interests and geopolitical designs in the region as part of its strategic calculus for the entire Western Hemisphere, and in doing so, they often treat the separate destinies of the two dozen sovereign countries as subservient to core US interests. However, China is becoming a major economic partner to many countries in this region, and has cultivated economic ties which are likely to be viewed by US policymakers as trespassing in what Washington still considers its sphere of influence.