In Geopolitics This Week
Lebanon Stumbles into Diplomatic Row with Gulf States, Ethiopia Declares National Emergency as Rebels Make Gains, UN Security Council Extends Mandate of EU Forces in Bosnia, and other stories.
Monday, November 1st
Lebanon Stumbles into Diplomatic Row with Gulf States
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have all withdrawn their diplomatic personnel from Lebanon after a Lebanese official made stark comments on Saudi Arabia’s involvement in the war in Yemen. The move by the four Gulf states comes at a time when Lebanon is reeling from unrest and economic disarray, with Hezbollah accusing the Lebanese Forces Party for firing at protesters from rooftops in an apparent attempt to drag Lebanon into a civil war. The decision by the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain to cut diplomatic ties to Lebanon in solidarity with Saudi Arabia leaves Lebanon increasingly isolated.
The statement which caused the diplomatic spat came from the Minister of Information of Lebanon, George Kordahi, who criticized Saudi Arabia’s military involvement in Yemen. Kordahi said that Houthi rebels are merely defending themselves against Saudi military attacks, describing the years-long war as "futile" and “absurd.” In doing so, Beirut has angered Riyadh and its allies, all of which proceeded to denounce Lebanon for attempting to stall efforts to establish peace. The UAE chose to impose a travel ban for its citizens, preventing them from travelling to Lebanon. Moreover, Riyadh went beyond the actions of its Gulf allies and announced a total ban of all imports coming from Lebanon.
Following the decision by the four Gulf allies, Lebanese President Michel Aoun has urged Saudi Arabia return to dialogue in an effort to defuse the tensions caused by Kordahi's criticism of the Saudi-led war effort in Yemen. Lebanon's government tried to make clear that Kordahi's statements were a reflection of his personal opinion rather than the official policy of Beirut. Lebanon's Foreign Minister extended an invitation to his Saudi counterpart to “engage in dialogue to solve all outstanding problems.” But the Saudi Foreign Minister chose not to entertain any discussions, and said that Riyadh was no longer interested in dealing with Beirut. The crisis has left Lebanon isolated in the region at a time when the country is under immense internal and external pressures.
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G-20 Summit Ends in Few Concrete Commitments
The leaders of the Group of Twenty (G-20) countries met in Rome over the weekend to agree on a range of initiatives, but stopped short of establishing a clear path to achieving them. The agenda for the summit included climate change, the COVID pandemic, a global tax deal and economic policies, among others. The summit holds significance as the G-20 represents roughly 80% of the world's GDP, 60% of the population and an estimated 80% of greenhouse gas emissions.
The climate was a critical component for the summit. On the eve the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), the leaders in attendance reiterated and reaffirmed their commitments to the objectives of the Paris Agreement, namely to keep average global temperature increases to below 2 degrees. Moreover, a great deal of emphasis was placed on an even lower threshold of + 1.5° C rise in temperatures compared to the pre-industrial era. The leaders of G-20 countries also agreed to stop subsidizing new coal-fired power plant projects abroad, but such projects planned on national territory were not part of the commitment, limiting the effectiveness of the initiative on combating climate change.
But the meeting of so many national leaders also brought other agreements. The summit saw broad support for a global tax deal which would see multinational businesses subject to a 15 percent tax. Brokered by the OECD and backed by some 136 countries, the deal has long been in the making and is expected to come into effect in 2023. But commitments made at the summit will amount to little unless each participating country first passes the legislation into national law. Separately, the United States and the European Union agreed to end a dispute over steel and aluminium tariffs on the side-lines of the summit, and both expressed a joint intention of countering China’s dominance of the steel industry by committing to combat an overcapacity of ‘dirty’ steel production.
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Tuesday, November 2nd
Ethiopia Declares National Emergency as Rebels Make Gains
Ethiopia has declared a nationwide state of emergency after two towns were seized by Tigrayan rebel groups. Ethiopia sent its armed forces into the Tigray region last year, where they conducted operations against rebel forces after Ethiopian military outposts came under constant attack. A year on, the rebels appear to be making considerable gains, and are now well positioned to advance on the capital. Making matters worse for the Ethiopian government is the mounting international pressure which threatens to cut off aid.
Tigrayan rebels are said to have captured several towns in recent days, including the strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha in the Amhara region. The capture of these towns means the rebel forces are able to make a push toward Addis Ababa. Moreover, the capture of Kombolcha, a town sitting adjacent to a highway linking the capital to the port of Djibouti, would be a significant strategic gain for the Tigrayan fighters, and would allow them to cut off supplies to the government forces in Addis Ababa. Ethiopian officials continue to deny claims of rebel territorial gains, but government authorities have nonetheless chosen to implement emergency measures, telling residents to prepare to defend their neighbourhoods against Tigrayan forces.
The situation remains precarious for the Ethiopian government. Northern Ethiopia remains under a total communications blackout with access to the region restricted. Furthermore, international pressure is mounting as the United States has threatened to expel Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) over the crisis in the Tigray region unless “urgent action” is taken. AGOA grants Ethiopia duty-free access to the US market for specific trade goods, the loss of which would be devastating for the Ethiopian economy. US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, said that Ethiopia can avoid such a scenario only if the country “takes certain steps in the days ahead.”
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Russia Strikes a Delicate Balance in the South Caucasus
As the main arbiter of the agreement which concluded the Second Karabkh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia last year, Russia must find a way to implement the terms of the agreement between both sides while upholding a delicate ceasefire. One of the focal points of the ceasefire agreement involves the reestablishment of transport and communications corridors between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the South Caucasus. While Armenia has found ways to block the implementation of the agreed terms until now, there are now signs that Yerevan is open to changing its position.
In particular, the trilateral agreement mentions reconnecting the Nakhchivan exclave with Azerbaijan proper via the Zangezur corridor. The Zangezur corridor, if established, would make it possible to conduct international transport across the South Caucasus. Moreover, the transport corridor promises to spur the development of economic ties between countries in the South Caucasus and major regional powers Iran, Russia, and Turkey. While Armenia lost its land connection with Iran to Azerbaijani forces during the Second Karabkh War, active engagement with Russia and Azerbaijan could mean the reestablishment of rail connection with Iran through Nakhchivan, offering a potential economic lifeline for Yerevan.
And there are signs that Armenia is willing to engage with Azerbaijan despite enduring animosity. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won the Armenian parliamentary elections in June this year, and has since pursued a more cooperation-minded approach to the region. As Baku actively develops the territories it seized from Armenia through large investment projects aimed at improving transport connections to the rest of the country, Yerevan may be re-evaluating its hard-line position by seeking integration rather than isolation. For Russia, striking a delicate balance between the two adversaries is the only way forward as it cannot risk either country drifting closer to Turkey or Iran. Therefore, Moscow pragmatically pursues positive relations with Baku while being careful not to damage its close ties with Yerevan as it oversees the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
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Wednesday, November 3rd
Conflicting Claims Emerge Over Oil Tanker Incident
The shipping lanes of the Middle East are becoming increasingly dangerous waters. The waters which lie off the shore of Oman have been the scene of major incidents in recent months, with reported attacks, hijackings and drone strikes on oil shipments on the rise as tensions flare between Israel and Iran. More recently, another incident has occurred which reportedly involves US forces pursuing an Iranian oil tanker. This latest episode is just another example of the way that this maritime war is playing out in the region.
Both sides have offered contradictory accounts of the event. Iranian news said that an Iranian oil tanker was confiscated by US forces before members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arrived on the scene and took control of the vessel. On the other hand, US officials have said that the Iranian account is untrue and that there had been no US involvement. The Iranian side has released footage of the encounter, which appears to confirm the presence of two US destroyers at the scene. One of the destroyers, the USS The Sullivans, had as recently as ten days ago left the UK Royal Navy Strike Group to supposedly head home and prepare for deployment as part of Task Group Greyhound.
The increased instability in Middle Eastern energy supply chains are part of an embargo which is heavily policed by a joint US, UK and Israeli force. Its stringent enforcement has cut China’s energy imports from Iran drastically. According to the chair of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Masoud Khansari, Iran's oil exports to China fell sharply from $9 billion in 2018 in the first seven months of the year to $11 million in the same period in 2021. While other countries in the region have taken over a large share of Iran's oil exports since then, the fall in exports to Beijing represents a dramatic realignment of energy flows.
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A More Pragmatic Approach to Easing Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
The Trump administration made various unsuccessful attempts at diplomatically engaging with North Korea. And there is little sign of change ahead, as the Biden administration has not indicated any shift from Washington’s long-held position, and continues to insist on the total denuclearization of North Korea. The inability of successive US presidents to divert from a long-standing status quo toward North Korea has ensured that unless a drastic change in policy occurs, a hostile relationship is the only plausible expectation for the years ahead.
But as North Korea continues to make strides in developing advanced missile delivery systems, Washington may have to admit that success in prying nuclear weapons away from Pyongyang is increasingly unlikely. Nuclear weapons act as the ultimate tool of deterrence for North Korea, preventing any direct external military pressures. North Korea maintains a sophisticated ballistic missile program, and a stockpile of some 50 nuclear warheads, Moreover, the recent submarine-launched missile tests conducted by Pyongyang signal an intent to develop a second-strike capability, allowing for a retaliatory nuclear strike to any potential first strike on North Korea’s ground-based platforms.
This reality changes the plausibility of achieving a policy of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. Thus, a more prudent policy would acknowledge that demanding denuclearization from North Korea is unlikely to contribute to any settlement. Instead, Washington could choose to pursue more realistic goals, such as limiting the expansion of current programs in a bid to prevent further proliferation of nuclear weapons. If Washington can learn to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea, easing sanctions on the country could incentivise Pyongyang to negotiate in good faith. It is improbable that a nuclear-armed power would give up its most credible deterrent, a fact the United States should be all too familiar with.
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Thursday, November 4th
UN Security Council Extends Mandate of EU Forces in Bosnia
A recent UN Security Council meeting unanimously adopted resolution 2604 (2021). Meeting amid heightened political tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the 15-member Council extended the mandate of the European Union-led stabilization force EUFOR-Althea for another year. The Council also decided to renew its authorization to maintain a NATO headquarters in Bosnia over the same period of time. EUFOR-Althea is mandated to help implement the military aspects of the Dayton Peace Agreement signed in Paris in 1995, and receives assistance from the NATO headquarters operating in the region.
There were sharp divisions between Council members leading up to the meetings. Both Moscow and Beijing protested at the appointment of Christian Schmidt, whose report on Bosnia has been the subject of various complaints. In the end, a compromise was found, and the council was able to declare a unanimous decision. Nevertheless, representatives of the relevant parties each made their differing positions known via their respective statements. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s representative said the country is facing its greatest existential threat of the post-war period because Republika Srpska’s actions could “turn the clock back 15 years,” while Serbia’s delegate stressed that only regional actors should be involved in the continued implementation of the Dayton Agreement.
There were differences of opinion between relevant international players too. The Russian Federation’s representative warned that the worsening political situation in Bosnia was being compounded by several external forces. On the other hand, the representative of the United States indicated that local forces were at fault for a rise in tensions, namely Republika Srpska’s recent threats to withdraw from the tripartite government’s institutions, adding that such assertions represent “a dangerous path” for both the country and the region. Meanwhile, the head of the EU delegation expressed regret over the lack of compatibility of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Constitution with that of the European Convention on Human Rights. That the UN-sanctioned EU mission is extended for a further year buys time for all parties to push for a more permanent solution a year from now.
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The Dilemma of Simultaneous CPTPP Applications from China & Taiwan
Only two days after China formally announced its intention to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Taiwan registered its own formal interest as well. This scenario of a simultaneous membership bid by both Beijing and Taipei puts the CPTPP members in an awkward position, and the admission process for either power will somehow have to avoid getting bogged down in a spat over sovereignty. At the same time, the way entry negotiations ought to be approached is up in the air as each offers a compelling case for their respective membership bids.
The Taiwanese economy has economic regulations and business practices that are closer aligned to those standards practiced by existing CPTPP members. China's application, on the other hand, will come under fire for the country's many state-owned enterprises and an increasingly regulated private sector. Nevertheless, China is the world's second-largest market and plays a huge role in regional economic affairs. And Beijing has expressed a willingness to compromise, signalling that it is open to negotiations on industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises as part of the CPTPP admission process. Xi Jinping has made clear that China's intentions are to "firmly promote high-standard opening up" of their economy.
Views remain divided on how to proceed. In juggling these two applications, some favour taking China's bid seriously as its massive market could stimulate the economies of the region if there were few trade barricades and widespread standardization. Others want to keep China economically isolated in the belief that CPTPP membership would work to enhance Beijing's regional power. The dilemma of a simultaneous entry bids puts many CPTPP members in an awkward position as many still do not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country, with the majority of the support for Taiwan’s candidacy coming from Japan. Washington is unlikely to re-join the pact, and may look to support Japanese efforts in making negotiations as difficult as possible for Beijing.
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Friday, November 5th
Power Shortages Across China
China has been grappling with a serious power crisis in recent weeks. The amount of coal that China imports has surged 76 percent in the month of September as power plants scrambled for fuel. Effort is being placed in attempting to ease a power crunch that is pushing domestic coal prices to record highs and disrupting business activity in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s state planners have said that the country will focus its attention on securing domestic coal and energy supplies for the coming winter while also ensuring the country’s climate change targets are met.
Beijing has made an official request for more coal imports to arrive from Mongolia in an effort to offset an ongoing supply shortage. Mongolia has effectively replaced Australia as China’s main source of imported coal since the second half of last year, when Beijing banned the import of all Australian coal. Since then, the price of coal has been on an upward trend, and hit new highs in recent weeks as prices have risen roughly 40 per cent in the last month. Compounding issues is the fact that China and other powers have begun restocking low inventories, thereby increasing demand and aggravating the coal shortage. Chinese authorities have sought to address these shortages by stepping in to facilitate ample coal production to meet the needs of its industry. At the same time, China is bringing its regional authorities to closer adhere to strict carbon emission reduction targets.
Chinese authorities have moved quickly to boost national reserves and accelerate the approval of land-use rights for mines in Inner Mongolia. These mines had previously been suspended due to restricted access to land. In addition, the Chinese government has urged coal-mining companies to stop hoarding coal at ports in order to ensure a steady supply for the country. China’s industrial engine produces countless electronics, toys, clothes and equipment for markets across the globe, and its economy is deeply connected with that of other countries’. And China is not the only country struggling with power supplies, as fuel shortages and blackouts are increasingly widespread due to rising costs elsewhere too.
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US Agrees to Sell Air-To-Air Missiles to Saudi Arabia
The US State Department has approved a sale of $650 million worth of air-to-air missiles to Saudi Arabia. The approval means Riyadh is close to being able to purchase up to 280 of the AIM-120C advanced medium-range missiles, bolstering Riyadh’s air-to-air capabilities at a time the country appears vulnerable from drone attacks. As Washington continues to shift its armaments toward the Indo-Pacific, there has been speculation as to what shape the US-Saudi relationship would take going forward.
President Joe Biden’s administration has taken a more cautious approach to supporting the Saudis. Nonetheless, the two countries remain steadfast allies in the region, and Riyadh’s security concerns have become difficult for Washington to ignore. The United States maintains hostile relations with Saudi Arabia’s rival Iran, which Washington accuses of arming Yemenis with drones and drone technology. This in turn has led to an increase in cross-border attacks against Saudi Arabia, which is leading the war against Houthi rebels in Yemen. A US official stressed that the sale of the missiles to Riyadh is “consistent with the administration’s pledge to lead with diplomacy to end the conflict in Yemen” while also functioning as a means for Saudi Arabia to “defend itself from Iranian-backed Houthi air attacks.”
Washington appears to remain committed to the defence of Saudi Arabia as the missile sale follows a US approval of a $500m helicopter maintenance deal in September. Biden had previously pledged to end US support to Saudi Arabia for the war in Yemen, but deep military cooperation between the two countries continues. However, State Department approval of this latest missile deal may not be enough to secure the transfer of the missiles to Riyadh. Congress is now formally notified of the sale proposal, and the matter still has yet to go up for debate. While the sale does not require congressional approval, lawmakers are able to block the deal by passing a disapproval bill in the Senate and the House of Representatives.
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