In Geopolitics This Week
EU Leaders Agree on Russian Oil Ban, Turkey Marks Targets for Upcoming Military Operations, UN-Brokered Truce in Yemen Extended for Two Months, and other stories.
EU Leaders Agree on Russian Oil Ban
After weeks of intense negotiations, European Union leaders have agreed to ban a significant portion of all oil originating in Russia. The move is part of the bloc's latest sanctions package aimed to cut of Russian state revenues, and will translate to an embargo on around 90% of all oil imports from Russia to the EU by the end of 2022. Overcoming disagreements, EU leaders were able to agree on a compromise deal that will see exemptions apply to deliveries arriving via the Druzhba pipeline.
The oil ban was part of the sixth round of EU sanctions that also included the removal of Russia's biggest bank — Sberbank — from the SWIFT financial transactions and payments system. In addition, three major Russian broadcasters will be prevented from distributing their content anywhere in the EU, while Ukraine will receive almost $10 billion in economic assistance.
Initially, this round of sanctions aimed to place a ban on all Russian oil entering the EU, however Hungary remained persistent in presenting staunch opposition to a total oil embargo, and in the end, managed to attain mechanisms to bypass a total ban on oil imports from Russia. Given that two-thirds of all Russian oil imported into the EU is delivered via tanker while only one third via the Druzhba pipeline, the EU is now expected to phase out the majority of Russian oil and oil-related products in a short span of time.
Russia exports roughly 2.3 million barrels of oil per day into the EU. Of that 2.3 million barrels per day, an estimated 1.6 million is shipped to the EU by sea, while the rest of the crude is transferred via pipeline. The volumes shipped by sea will now cease as the imposed sanctions prevent the transfer of Russian oil products into the EU, whereas Russian oil will continue to flow into the EU via the Druzhba pipeline.
The ban is designed to punish the Russian government and constrain its finances by cutting off oil revenues, and will likely have the desired effects of reducing how much Russian oil EU member states will buy. However, the move is unlikely to inflict much harm on Russian state revenues if Moscow is able to find other buyers. Moreover, high oil prices mean that a lucrative source of revenue for Russia remains open as its heavily-discounted oil products remain a cheap source of oil in otherwise expensive energy markets.
Turkey Marks Targets for Upcoming Military Operations
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced that Turkey will launch a new military operation in northern Syria focused around the towns of Tel Rifaat and Manbij. The Turkish president is effectively reviving an old plan at a time when international conditions appear more favourable to Ankara. With the war in Ukraine still raging and with Turkey holding veto power over the NATO accessions of Sweden and Finland, Ankara may be calculating that international resistance to a Turkish military operation in Syria would be weak.
The upcoming military operation would be the fourth of its kind in northern Syria since the Syrian Civil War began. Turkey has conducted prior incursions into Syrian and Iraqi territory with the declared purpose of combating threats from the Islamic State and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), as well as a means of resettling displaced Syrians residing in Turkey.
The announcement comes as Ankara conducts a separate offensive against PKK fighters in northern Iraq, where the Turkish military is already acting to reduce PKK influence by attempting to take control of a land corridor between Turkey and Iraq. At the same time, Turkish military sources have indicated that Russia has recently reduced its military footprint in the region, and its forces in Tal Rifaat have reportedly left the area. With Russian and American attention focused on events taking place in Ukraine, Turkey appears willing to take advantage of a perceived lack of international opposition to the potential use of military power against the PKK.
Previous operations (Euphrates Shield, 2016; Olive Branch, 2018; and Peace Spring 2019) have seen Turkey and its local allies seize border territory previously controlled by US-backed militias in Syria and Iraq that Turkey has accused of being a part of the PKK. Turkey has fought a guerrilla war with the PKK over Kurdish independence and autonomy since 1984, and regards the group as a national security threat. As such, the decision to conduct fresh military operations in Syria is driven largely by Ankara’s own strategic concerns and intelligence on PKK activities.
UN-Brokered Truce in Yemen Extended for Two Months
The United Nations has announced a two-month extensions of the truce established between the country’s Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition. Yemen has been in a state of war since the Houthi rebels first took control of the capital Sana'a in 2014, triggering a Saudi-led military intervention in support of the government in 2015. The initial two-month truce began on April 2nd and was set to expire today, with the new UN-brokered truce agreed under the same conditions as the previous agreement.
Both Rashad Al-Alimi, leader of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, and Mahdi Al-Mashat, head of the Houthi political council, said they welcomed and accepted the UN proposal. The warring parties have largely stayed true to the original truce, but have thus far failed to reach a final agreement on lifting the siege of Taiz city. In order for the truce to fully deliver on its grounds, additional steps will need to be taken, particularly on reopening roads and restarting commercial flight operations. While there has been little sign that the parties to the war are pushing for a more permanent diplomatic solution, the extension of the truce is welcome in a country that has been exhausted by war.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have signalled an interest in drawing down military operations in Yemen. Strong Houthi military resistance has forced Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to take a step back and reframe the objectives of their initial intervention in the war. The UAE was the first to show a willingness to negotiate when its leaders chose to withdraw a part of its forces in 2019, while Saudi Arabia expressed an openness to a general cease-fire in 2021.
Yemen, a country already devastated by years of war, has been hit hard by the recent commodity shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The dire situation present across the country has led Yemen's various local factions to agree to pause fighting in order to help bring in much-needed aid. While another extension of the UN-sponsored cease-fire accomplishes this goal, the war in Yemen could be edging toward a frozen conflict, as the Houthis and the Saudi-backed coalition remain far apart in peace negotiations.