In Geopolitics This Week
UN Calls for Ceasefire as Israel Escalates on Multiple Fronts, China Lifts Tariffs on Australian Wine Amid Thawing Ties, US Opposes Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline, and other stories.
UN Calls for Ceasefire as Israel Escalates on Multiple Fronts
The United Nations Security Council this week adopted a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza for the duration of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. While 14 members voted in favour of the ceasefire call, the United States abstained, marking a shift from its previous opposition to such resolutions. Beyond Gaza, Israel conducted airstrikes against targets in Syria, killing Syrian soldiers in the process. Cross-border hostilities also erupted between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants along the Lebanon-Israel border.
The United States' abstention from the vote inflamed bilateral ties with Israel, but stopped well short of any fundamental policy shift. The United States even discreetly approved the transfer of billions of dollars worth of advanced weapons to Israel. The shipments comprise more than 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs and 500 MK82 500-pound bombs, both of which have been associated with Israel's military operations in Gaza. The decision to provide these weapons to Israel, despite the potential for their use, underscores the often contradictory nature of US foreign policy in the region. The goal of abstaining at the UN vote may not have been to induce outright policy reversals, but rather constrain potential Israeli actions.
Emboldened by US support, Israel has adopted an aggressive posture towards its perceived adversaries in the region. Just days after the UN vote, Israel launched airstrikes against targets in Syria, killing Syrian soldiers and raising the spectre of a wider regional conflict. Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Syria demonstrate Israel's ability to confront anti-Israeli militia forces beyond its borders with little pushback. Israel's defence minister even warned that the country is now taking an “offensive” posture, threatening to expand strikes into Lebanon itself against areas where Hezbollah wields control. The strikes risk drawing retaliation from Hezbollah and destabilizing the already fragile security situation in Lebanon. However, a war with Israel could severely tax Hezbollah's resources and destabilize Lebanon.
Continued diplomatic and military support for Israel’s by the United States has allowed Israel to pursue a more assertive strategy in countering perceived threats. However, this approach also carries the risk of further destabilizing the region and drawing other actors into the fray. As Israel adopts a more offensive stance, the potential for a dangerous cycle of escalation increases, with retaliatory strikes and counterstrikes potentially leading to a full-scale regional conflict.
China Lifts Tariffs on Australian Wine Amid Thawing Ties
In a significant development for Australia-China relations, Beijing announced that it would lift the tariffs on Australian wine imports, which had been in place for more than three years. The decision comes just a week after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Canberra, marking the first high-level diplomatic engagement between the two nations in nearly seven years. The lifting of the wine tariffs is a clear indication that both countries are taking concrete steps to mend their strained ties and restore economic cooperation.
The wine tariffs have had a devastating impact on Australia's wine industry. The imposition of these tariffs was part of a broader range of trade measures China implemented targeting various Australian exports, including barley, coal, lobsters, and beef. The lifting of the wine tariffs represents a breakthrough in efforts to rebuild the once-thriving economic partnership between the two countries. During last week's meeting between Wang Yi and Penny Wong, both sides emphasized the importance of maintaining stability and cooperation in the Australia-China relationship. The two foreign ministers acknowledged the existence of significant differences between their countries but stressed the need to manage these differences constructively.
The Australia-China relationship is a complex and multifaceted one, characterized by a range of complementary economic and competitive security interests. As the two countries work to navigate a rapprochement, they will need to carefully balance their respective national interests and red lines while seeking areas of mutual benefit. This will require a nuanced approach that takes into account the domestic political considerations in both countries, and the broader regional and global context in which the relationship operates.
Australia is seeking to reset its relationship with China while bolstering its security ties with the United States. The success of Australia's approach will have implications for the Asia-Pacific region, and could potentially serve as a model for other countries seeking to navigate the complexities of engaging with both China and the United States.
US Opposes Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline
The United States has expressed its opposition to the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, warning Pakistan of the potential consequences of engaging with Iran. This stance comes as Pakistan's interim government recently approved the construction of the first 80 kilometres of the pipeline within its borders. The project, which aims to transport natural gas from Iran to Pakistan, has a long and complex history dating back to the mid-20th century. Despite facing numerous challenges and delays due to pricing disputes, security concerns, and international sanctions against Iran, both countries have remained committed to its completion.
Pakistan's interest in the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline is driven by its severe energy crisis, with the country facing a significant shortfall in natural gas supply. Demand exceeds 6 billion cubic feet per day, while domestic production remains around 4 billion cubic feet per day, leading to frequent power outages, industrial disruptions, and economic losses. The Iranian gas pipeline offers Pakistan a reliable and cost-effective solution to bridge this gap and support its growing energy demands. However, Pakistan's ability to proceed with the project is severely constrained by the US sanctions regime, which aims to curb Iran's state revenues and regional influence.
In an effort to move forward with the pipeline, Pakistan has considered seeking a sanctions waiver from the United States. Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated that Pakistan would present a comprehensive case to Washington, highlighting the political and technical reasons for the project's necessity. However, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Donald Lu, has indicated that Washington is closely monitoring the situation and has not received any formal request for a waiver from Pakistan. This has raised concerns among Pakistani policymakers, who argue that the US is exercising double standards by granting waivers to countries like India for trading with Iran and Russia while denying the same to Pakistan.
The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project could serve as a catalyst for increased economic cooperation and energy security in South Asia. The successful completion of the pipeline could encourage other countries in the region, such as India and Afghanistan, to consider similar collaborations with Iran, fostering a more interconnected and stable energy market. However, the project's progress may also exacerbate regional tensions, particularly between Pakistan and India, especially if the latter perceives Pakistan's involvement in the pipeline as a threat to its own energy interests.
Monday, March 25th
India Has Deepened Strategic Ties with West Asia — The Diplomat
UK Attributes Cyberattacks to China — Financial Times
Philippines Summons Chinese Envoy Over South China Sea Incident — Bloomberg
UN Security Council Adopts Resolution Demanding Gaza Ceasefire — Al Jazeera
Ukraine Faces Serious Conscription Challenges — Politico
Somali Piracy Resurges as Red Sea Attacks Divert Attention — The Economist
Tuesday, March 26th
Israel-US Tensions Surface — Middle East Eye
Ukraine Seeks to Strengthen African Ties — Semafor
India Halts Venezuelan Crude Purchases as US Sanctions Waiver Expires — Oil Price
South Sudan Faces Heightened Instability — Al Jazeera
China Introduces State Guidelines to Phase Out US Chips and Software — Zero Hedge
Kazakhstan and Italy Seek to Deepen Economic Ties — Jamestown
Wednesday, March 27th
Russian Oil Firms Face Payment Delays Due to Sanctions — Reuters
France and Brazil Launch €1 Billion Amazon Bioeconomy Program — MercoPress
Argentina Shelters Venezuelan Opposition As Government Protests — Al Jazeera
China's Trade with Central Asia Reaches New Milestones — Asia Times
China Navigates Complex Dynamics in Myanmar — War on the Rocks
EU's Approach in the Indo-Pacific Faces Challenges — ASPI
Thursday, March 28th
Iran's Drone Diplomacy a Success — Geopolitical Monitor
South Korea's Shift Threatens China's Regional Influence — Asia Times
Russia and Iran Deepen Gas Cooperation — Oil Price
Kenya to License Uganda's Oil Company, Ending Fuel Import Dispute — Africa News
EU Extends Tariff-Free Trade with Ukraine — Euronews
Iran and Azerbaijan Seek Rapprochement — Jamestown
Friday, March 29th
US Capital Shifts from China to Japan — The Diplomat
Israel-Hezbollah Hostilities Raise Prospects of Wider Conflict — TNN
China Lifts Tariffs on Australian Wine — AP News
Technological Advances Spur a New Era of Power Dynamics — FPRI
Germany's Military Resurgence Sparks Debate — Brussels Signal
Russia Blocks Renewal of UN North Korea Sanctions Monitor — Al Jazeera
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