In Geopolitics This Week
Sudan’s Military Seizes Power, Turkey Sends Reinforcements to Its Forces in Syria, Political Crisis Brewing in the Balkans, and other stories.
Monday, October 25th
Sudan’s Military Seizes Power
For over a month now, the joint military and civilian government of Sudan has been on a civil war footing. Both sides have blamed each other for their country’s difficulties, with their relationship marred by mistrust since the transitional government was first established in 2019. But following a failed coup last month, there now appears little chance of a political solution to the crisis which has gripped the country. Mistrust between the two sides of Sudan's government has been impossible to bridge, and has now culminated in the arrest and dissolution of the civilian government.
Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, has declared a state of emergency across Sudan as he dissolved the transitional cabinet and sovereign council. General al-Burhan announced his faction intends to install a technocratic transitional government which will lead the country into elections expected to take place in July 2023. In effect, the military will be taking control of Sudan’s government, while al-Burhan assured his audience that Sudan’s military will continue “completing the democratic transition” until such a time when elections can be held. The military closed Khartoum’s airport and some of the city’s roads and bridges, while also shutting down internet traffic, and raided both the television and the radio headquarters.
Instability across Sudan is a real possibility as pro-democracy groups are calling on supporters to take to the streets. Conflict in Sudan would also have a significant impact on the region as a whole, as the country already grapples with a wide array of national security problems. Sudan has a border dispute with its eastern neighbour Ethiopia, and both are also at odds over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile that has sparked a diplomatic crisis. Furthermore, if Sudan begins to unravel, it risks leaving a vacuum for extremist groups that could spill over into other states. Prolonged violence could even send another migration wave north, where a number of countries would come under increased migratory pressures.
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ICJ Rules on Kenya-Somalia Maritime Dispute
Earlier this month, the United Nations' main court for dispute settlement between states, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), ruled on a contentious maritime case. Kenya and Somalia have been embroiled in a longstanding dispute over the rights to parts of the Indian Ocean just off their coasts. Somalia — which brought the case to the ICJ in the first place — has happily accepted the judgement, while Kenya has continued to dispute the authority of the court while outright rejecting the ruling. Lacking any enforcement mechanisms, the ICJ ruling will do little to change realities on the ground as Kenya intends to ignore the court’s decision for now.
The dispute between Kenya and Somalia revolves around overlapping maritime claims. Kenya has repeatedly claimed that the boundary between the two countries' maritime zones runs straight east along a line of latitude, while Somalia argues its sovereign right to a boundary running roughly perpendicular away from the coast, equally distant from each country's nearest land. The dispute extends to conflicting claims over the two countries' exclusive economic zones and claimed continental shelf. In its final judgment, the ICJ drew a new boundary to separate Kenya and Somalia's maritime zones, and largely took Somalia's side while offering minor concessions to Kenya.
But because Kenya has repeatedly expressed reservations about the authority of the ICJ in making any ruling, and has outright refused to ratify the decision domestically, the ruling does little to change realities on the ground. While the ICJ insists that its judgment is final and legally binding, and Somalia has, unsurprisingly, already accepted the judgement, the rejection of the decision by Kenya will work to block its effective implementation. The decision by the ICJ largely borrowed from previous rulings modelled on the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, so the ruling over Kenyan and Somalian maritime claims will work to strengthen Somalia’s position going forward. But for now, it remains a dispute that is unsolved in practice.
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Tuesday, October 26th
Japanese Army Holds Largest Military Drill in Decades
Even though Japan has a US-imposed pacifist constitution since World War II, the country is rapidly boosting its military capabilities. And while the Japanese military remains de jure a purely self-defence force, it is increasingly a force to be reckoned with. Prohibited from acquiring weapons for offensive military operations, Japan has nevertheless gradually bolstered its armed forces significantly. At a time of heightened tension in Asia and the Pacific, an empowered Japan has raised some eyebrows by holding its largest-ever military exercise in three decades.
The environment in which the drills are taking place resemble the harsh geography of the Senkaku Islands, a likely flashpoint in a potential US-China conflict. Involving over 100,000 personnel, 20,000 ground vehicles, and 120 aircraft, the exercises are massive in scale for a military which cannot, by law, conduct operations abroad. To many in the region, the scale of the exercises has given the impression that Japan is preparing for war, but Japanese military officials maintain that the exercise is not a preparation for conflict against any particular country. Nevertheless, military exercises of such a scale are rare, and rarer still for a country like Japan to conduct.
Asia is undergoing drastic change. The United States has long enjoyed overwhelming influence and military presence in the region, which has largely remained unchallenged. All that changed quickly when China took over Scarborough Shoal and began the construction of air fields and supply stations intended for military use. The lack of a credible response to this incident, and several others since then, has led many in the region to question the enduring primacy of US military power. This has in turn caused concern in Tokyo, where policymakers have been the first to express fears of China’s growing ability to project military power beyond its borders.
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China’s Hypersonic Weapons and US Missile-Defence
The US defence community has expressed shock following a hypersonic missile test conducted by China. China is said to have tested a new hypersonic glide vehicle utilising its Long March 2C orbital launch vehicle, which took a south polar flight trajectory into low-earth orbit. The rocket released a hypersonic glide vehicle that circled the globe in low-earth orbit before landing several kilometres from its intended target. China claims it was testing a non-military space vehicle, but the test has raised questions in Washington about the ability of existing US missile defence systems in countering a missile following such a trajectory.
If China has indeed tested a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of circumnavigating the globe in low-earth orbit, policymakers in Washington would be justified in questioning the efficacy of current US missile defence systems in countering such a weapon. The combination of a low-flying and highly manoeuvrable hypersonic glide vehicle would not only enable China to circumvent existing missile-defence and early warning systems, but also those still in the works. Moreover, the manoeuvrability of such weapons would allow China to strike at the United States via the south, where its early warning radars and missile-defence systems are spread thin, and thereby catch Washington by surprise.
US early warning systems are comprised of multiple systems and a diverse set of sensors. Missile tracking begins with a network of infrared satellites finetuned to detect and track the launch of an ICBM through its flight. Simultaneously, advanced early warning radars and a range of other sensors provide radar tracking which allows the launch of missile interceptors. The US missile defence system consists of 40 ground-based interceptors in Alaska and four in California, with 20 more expected to be deployed by 2023. US missile-defence systems are designed to intercept a limited ICBM attack, and would not be able to counter a large-scale nuclear salvo by a peer competitor. But hypersonic weapons may have changed the equation, and US missile-defence systems may not be capable of countering a manoeuvrable glide vehicle.
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Wednesday, October 27th
Turkey Sends Reinforcements to Its Forces in Syria
The Turkish army has sent over 200 military vehicles to reinforce its positions in Syria's Idlib province, which lies 335 kilometres northwest of Damascus. Turkish reinforcements entered through the Khirbet al-Joz crossing, and are said to consist of advanced weapons, ammunition and logistics materials. The convoy of military arms and personnel headed to dozens of Turkish military points in western Idlib and the Jabal al-Zawiya plateau. The move signals a go-ahead for a long-suspended offensive against Kurdish forces, which could help President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan put pressure on the United States and Russia to rein in support for Kurdish militias.
The Turkish Parliament extended the mandate which authorizes Turkey’s armed forces to continue conducting military operations in northern Iraq and Syria until October 2023. Erdoğan signalled he was planning a new campaign following attacks on Turkish soldiers in Syria by Kurdish forces, which Ankara regards as a mortal threat due to their connections with Kurdish insurgents in Turkey. Erdoğan said that Turkey is currently facing “terrorist threats from across the border,” and that Ankara will continue its fight against terrorism at home and abroad. The renewed military campaign against Kurdish forces could help Erdoğan consolidate domestic support at a time when soaring inflation threatens his power. However, the move risks a standoff with the US, which has covertly supported Kurdish troops in an effort to weaken the Syrian government.
Turkey has been shelling Kurdish positions ever since mortars were fired into Turkish territory earlier this month. The planned offensive is likely intended to seal a large section of Turkey’s 910-kilometer border with Syria, with Ankara aiming to capture areas south of the town of Kobanî in order to connect areas under its control west and east of the Euphrates River. In addition, Turkish forces may target the Menagh air base near the town of Azaz, from which Kurdish forces carry out hit-and-run attacks on Turkish soldiers. While the area targeted for the offensive is largely devoid of people, it nonetheless falls within the purview of a delicate compromise which Turkey has agreed with Russia. In order to avoid any backlash from Moscow, Turkish forces may selectively withdraw from areas south of the strategic M-4 highway.
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India Completes Successful ICBM Test
India has announced that it has successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The Indian Army's strategic forces command successfully tested the Agni-5 ICBM, which is said to be able to travel up to a distance of 5,000 kilometres. The solid-fuelled missile is reportedly capable of carrying a payload of 1.5 tonnes, and would allow India to strike targets in Pakistan and China. The successful test of an ICBM marks a turning point for India, which now joins a select group of nation-states possessing ICBM capabilities.
New Delhi began its development cycle for the Agni-5 in 2008. The Agni-5 is an ICBM which has evolved from India’s Agni-3 ballistic missile program, enhancing the intermediate-range ballistic missile with an additional third stage for enhanced range. What makes the Agni-5 different from ICBM’s fielded by other countries is the fact that the missile is launched from a sealed canister on a road-mobile launcher, thereby lowering launch time and enhancing India’s second-strike capability. India’s defence ministry said that the launch of the Agni-5 is in line with India’s policy to maintain “credible minimum deterrence,” which forms a critical part of New Delhi’s commitment to a ‘no first use' policy toward nuclear weapons.
China has been vocal in its opposition to India’s expanded missile capabilities. In September, Beijing proposed a United Nations Security Council resolution in an effort to stymie India’s progress in acquiring the nuclear-capable inter-continental ballistic missile. But with little success in achieving any kind of restrictions on New Delhi via the United Nations, Beijing must admit defeat as India now possesses the means to strike at targets throughout China and beyond. In conducting a successful ICBM test, India follows in the footsteps of the US, UK, Russia, China, France, Israel, and North Korea, all of which possess an arsenal of such weapons.
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Thursday, October 28th
Political Crisis Brewing in the Balkans
Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing a political crisis that could quickly morph into an armed conflict. The country is now on the verge of its worse crisis since the signing of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement, which effectively split Bosnia along ethnic lines into two regions: the Serb-run Republika Srpska and the Federation in which power is shared by Croats and Bosniaks. But earlier this month Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of Bosnia’s split presidency, announced the Republika Srpska will leave key institutions in violation of the 1995 peace accords.
Dodik represents secessionist Serb forces within the delicate power-sharing government in Bosnia, and has made clear that Republika Srpska wants also wants to withdraw its armed forces from state institutions. Dodik confirmed that the governing SNSD party in Republika Srpska has adopted a decision to initiate the procedures necessary for the formation of a Bosnian Serb army. But the head of joint headquarters of the Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina countered by insisting that its armed forces are the only legal and legitimate military force in the country. US & EU officials have voiced support for the unified Armed Forces of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The re-establishment of the Bosnian Serb Army, if carried out, would have drastic repercussions on the security landscape in Bosnia, the Balkans, and Europe as a whole. The next weeks are critical, partly because outside powers — such as the Turkey, the US, Russia, and China — all have both professed and hidden designs on this region, and all are likely to support limited military operations in pursuit of their respective interests if tensions on the ground escalate. The rivalry between Serbia and Croatia also contributes toward a more contested battleground, where longstanding disagreements enable an environment in which grey zone operations conducted by local and outside powers bear a relatively smaller political cost.
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Row Over Fishing Licenses Between France & the UK Escalates
A row over a post-Brexit settlement concerning fishing licenses between France and the United Kingdom appears to be escalating. France has previously been angered by a decision by the UK and Jersey to deny fishing licences to dozens of French boats, which Paris argues is in breach of a prior deal. France says the UK has refused to grant some of its fishermen the licenses needed to operate in the UK’s and Jersey’s waters, and calls the move totally unwarranted. But the UK says it is issuing licences to those vessels which meet its criteria, and that the French boats concerned did not provide enough supporting evidence to demonstrate a history of fishing in the UK's or Jersey's waters.
The French seizure of a UK-registered fishing trawler is just the latest episode in an increasingly hostile relationship between the two. The UK has condemned the seizure of the fishing vessel, called out comments made by French officials as “unjustified,” and has formally summoned the country's ambassador. UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called for immediate talks between the two in order to explain “disappointing and disproportionate threats” made by French officials.
France warned it could ban the UK’s fishing boats from disembarking at French ports from as soon as next week if the issues are not resolved. Paris also threatened it would reinforce its customs and hygiene controls, initiate routine security checks on British vessels, and reinforce controls on lorries going to and from the UK. European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune is said committed to “speak the language of strength” to the UK government. French Maritime Minister Annick Girardin used a more concerning analogy to describe the stand-off, stating that “it's not war, but it is a fight.” Many don't want the dispute to escalate, but the governments in both France and the UK are under pressure from vocal and influential fishing lobbies.
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Friday, October 29th
US Holds Talks with Turkey Over F-35 Dispute
While formally NATO allies, relations between Turkey and the United States have been problematic since 2016. Turkey’s decision to purchase Russian-made S-400 anti-aircraft weapon systems led to Ankara being expelled from the F-35 program, a program which Turkey made considerable contributions to. To solve the point of disagreement between the two NATO allies, dispute resolution talks kicked off this week as both sides sat down to address issues resulting from Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program.
The discussions apparently went well, with the Pentagon stating that meetings were “productive,” without going into any detail. The short statement released by the Pentagon emphasized a US commitment to “conclude respectfully Turkey’s prior involvement in the F-35 program.” While the Turkish side stated that a part of the discussions revolved around financial issues related to Turkey’s exit from the program, possibly suggesting the involvement of financial compensation. Both sides welcomed the discussions, demonstrating an eagerness to overcome the dispute.
Turkey is demanding a return of its $1.4 billion initial order of up to 100 F-35 aircraft. But Washington expelled Turkey from the program before a single plane was delivered, prompting Turkey to press for a return of its investment. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has suggested that Washington may be willing to compensate Turkey with an order of F-16 fighter aircraft, though such a deal has yet to materialise. Whatever else may be on the table, Erdoğan has exclaimed that Turkey will get this $1.4 billion “one way or another.”
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China Reveals Two New Stealth Aircraft Variants
China looks to become only the second country to domestically develop a carrier-capable stealth fighter aircraft. While Beijing prepares for the completion of the country’s third aircraft carrier, exactly which aircraft are expected to fly from its decks have remained a mystery. Now, images have started to circulate online showing two new types of Chinese military aircraft conducting flight tests.
The two aircraft appear in photographs taken outside the Chengdu Aircraft factory, with one showing a two-seat J-20 stealth fighter aircraft and the other a carrier variant of the Shenyang FC-31. The images confirm reports that China has developed a carrier-based stealth fighter capability, and is producing the world’s first ever two-seat stealth fighter jet. These new aircraft are expected to fly from the decks of China’s upcoming Type 003 aircraft carrier, bringing the People’s Liberation Army Navy the ability to project power on the seas using advanced and stealthy aircraft.
Given that all previous 5th generation aircraft have been produced in single-seat versions, the new two-seater J-20 is going to provide China with some interesting advantages. The addition of another crew member will allow for the operation of on-board sensors without stressing the cognitive capacity of pilots. Human cognitive capacity can only interpret and act on so much, and increasingly, aircraft operate dozens of highly-complex sensors to determine a range of factors from the weather to target acquisition. The extra crew member can therefore better assess the battleground and relay critical information to the pilot, increasing the survival rate of both crew and aircraft.
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