In Geopolitics This Week
South Korea and Japan Sign Economic and Security Agreements, Slovakia and Poland Pledge Soviet-Era Jets for Ukraine, Germany and Japan to Cooperate Closely on Trade and Security, and other stories.
South Korea and Japan Sign Economic and Security Agreements
On March 16, 2023, a three-day summit between the leaders of Japan and South Korea concluded with the signing of several economic and security cooperation agreements. The agreements included a pledge by Japan to remove curbs on its exports to South Korea of critical materials for smartphone displays and semiconductor chips in exchange for Seoul dropping a World Trade Organization complaint against Tokyo about the export restrictions. The two countries also agreed to restart the previously halted "shuttle diplomacy" of regular top-level visits and to complete normalization of a military intelligence-sharing pact.
The summit comes as the two countries try to improve bilateral ties in the face of growing regional security concerns, despite the South Korean public's scepticism of their country's warming relations with Japan. While the recent summit will bring near-term economic and security benefits to both countries, including improved ability to confront challenges from China and North Korea, disagreements over wartime grievances may limit the extent of cooperation between South Korea and Japan in the long term.
South Koreans have long-standing grievances regarding the abuses conducted by Japanese troops during their occupation of the Korean Peninsula from 1910-1945. Yoon's predecessor, former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, previously tried to force Japan into redressing these abuses, but Tokyo has largely refused to acknowledge any wrongdoing. In an attempt to resolve this standoff, the Yoon administration has announced plans to establish a foundation to distribute payments to wartime Korean laborers who filed lawsuits seeking compensation from Japanese companies, thereby releasing Japan from compensatory obligations and facilitating improved relations.
The thaw in South Korea-Japan relations has already irritated North Korea and China, with Pyongyang conducting multiple missile launches during the summit in Tokyo in a show of disapproval, while Beijing said it “opposes attempts by certain countries to form exclusive circles.” Despite this, the summit marks a breakthrough in bilateral relations that could spur progress on economic and security cooperation, with further talks on national security and economic security frameworks set to begin shortly after the summit. Closer relations should also help deepen trilateral military cooperation with the United States, which has long pushed for closer Japan-South Korea ties.
Slovakia and Poland Pledge Soviet-Era Jets for Ukraine
Poland and Slovakia have renewed calls for other NATO members to supply fighter jets to Ukraine. The call came after Poland announced that it would be sending four Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine, while Slovakia pledged to send its entire fleet of 13 Soviet-era MiG-29s.
The decision by Poland and Slovakia is significant in the current context of escalating tensions between Russia and NATO over Ukraine. The jets alone will not be decisive in the ongoing conflict. However, the transfer nevertheless marks the first time that Ukraine has received advanced fighter aircraft from NATO member states. While NATO has been hesitant to provide lethal military aid to Ukraine, the decision by Poland and Slovakia to supply fighter jets could encourage other NATO members to consider similar actions.
The transfers mark a key step toward Ukraine eventually receiving advanced NATO-built jets like the F-16. Ukrainian pilots are already in the United States for an assessment of their skills in flying fighter jets, while the United Kingdom has announced that it will train Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard aircraft. However, it remains unclear if other NATO members are ready to take that step. The call to supply aircraft by Poland and Slovakia is a clear indication of continued support for Kiev from two of the staunchest proponents of Ukraine's war effort.
Germany and Japan to Cooperate Closely on Trade and Security
German and Japanese government officials met in Tokyo to hold government consultations on the expansion of bilateral combat exercises in the Pacific. The meeting comes at a time when Japan is embarking on an arms build-up, increasing its military budget by over 50%, and procuring missiles that can reach China.
The United States is also increasing its military presence in the region by amassing its armed forces throughout the first island chain off China's coast and turning Australia into a sort of rear base of operations for launching attacks on China. The Bundeswehr is also expanding its exercises throughout the entire region, further intensifying cooperation between the two states. This meeting between German and Japanese government officials is a sign of the changing geopolitical landscape in the region as countries are preparing for potential conflicts with China.
The German-Japanese government consultations aim to promote cooperation between Japan and Germany on the military level. In April 2021, both countries held their first "2+2-format" talks aimed at greater convergence of their respective foreign and military policies. This meeting is the next step in intensifying cooperation. Japan's arms build-up is part of a comprehensive regional militarization, which includes South Korea and the First Island Chain off the coast of China. The US seeks to build new military facilities, especially in the far north of the main island of Luzon and on the Palawan Island in the South China Sea.