In Geopolitics This Week
Russian Forces Withdraw from Kherson, Taiwan Pushes to Establish Language Centres in Allied Countries, Pressure Mounts on Germany to Reduce Economic Ties to China, and other stories.
Russian Forces Withdraw from Kherson
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has ordered Sergei Surovikin — the general leading Russia's war in Ukraine — to withdraw all Russian forces and equipment across the Dnieper River. The decision has prompted offensive actions by Ukrainian forces as they retake abandoned Russian positions and complicate Russia’s withdrawal.
Russia's withdrawal from Kherson marks a significant victory for Ukraine, damaging Russian morale in the process and making it more difficult for Moscow to claim a political or military victory over the recently annexed Kherson Oblast. Repositioning its assets and personnel will allow Moscow to more effectively reinforce its troops after Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Russian supply lines in the south of Ukraine. Now, as part of the withdrawal, satellite imagery reveals that Russian forces have destroyed the Antonivsky Bridge and the nearby Railway Bridge, the Nova Kakhovka dam bridge, and the Darivka Bridge over the Inhulets River, in an attempt to block Ukrainian advances towards central Kherson Oblast.
The goal of the withdrawal is to maintain Russia’s combat capabilities by preventing further losses to personnel and equipment. Russian resupply routes have been the subject of intense Ukrainian attacks in recent weeks, prompting Moscow to question its ability to keep Russian forces resupplied.
To ensure an orderly exit from Kherson, the retreat by Russian forces was reportedly carried out methodically, relying on several lines of defence to gradually pull back while maintaining battle order. Russia's withdrawal will likely mean a shift in the fighting eastward, making it harder for Moscow to justify its war at home as the entirety of the Kherson Oblast was recently annexed as Russian territory.
The withdrawal will improve the logistical situation for Russian forces in the region, but will complicate matters more broadly as NATO-supplied long-range precision weapons will now be able to threaten the Crimean Peninsula with direct strikes. Nevertheless, neither side in the war appears able to achieve their goals and the winter is expected to bring a slowdown in fighting. This will present an opportunity to restart diplomatic talks as a stalemate develops on the frontlines in Ukraine. However, a cease-fire could threaten Ukraine's advantageous position on the battlefield by granting Russia time to rearm and prepare future offensives.
Taiwan Pushes to Establish Language Centres in Allied Countries
A Taiwanese official has said the self-governing island is looking to establish dozens of Mandarin language teaching institutes in the United States and Europe throughout the year 2023, noting that the initiative is a strategic objective for Taipei.
Taiwan has outlined plans to set up 25 more such Mandarin learning centres abroad next year, expanding its soft diplomacy outreach just as China’s own cultural institutes face increased scrutiny over alleged espionage operations. Taipei currently operates 43 such centres overseas, including 23 already established this year, and uses them as a means to bolster its cultural reach abroad as China steps up its economic, military and diplomatic pressure on the island.
Today, only 14 countries maintain formal relations with Taiwan instead of China, which claims the self-ruled island as a part of its territory. China has set up hundreds of Confucius Institutes in more than 150 countries over the last two decades, catering to an increased demand for knowledge about China elsewhere in the world. Presented as China’s answer to organisations such as Germany’s Goethe-Institut or the British Council, they offer language lessons and cultural exchange programmes.
The lack of sufficient number of Chinese speakers in North America and Europe represent a strategic gap for the United States and its allies in their growing competition with China. This geopolitical competition has produced increased demand for Mandarin language centres, with Washington likely to support Taiwanese efforts to promote Taipei’s worldview in lieu of Beijing’s within Western education institutions.
Pressure Mounts on Germany to Reduce Economic Ties to China
The United States has been applying pressure on the German government to limit economic ties to China and prevent Beijing from taking ownership of strategic assets in Germany.
A senior US official was quoted saying that Washington had relayed a message to the German government that China should not have a “controlling stake” in the port of Hamburg. Since then, the German government has overturned an agreement between Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG and the Chinese shipping company COSCO, permitting the latter only a 24.9 percent stake in the Tollerort container terminal rather than the previously agreed upon 35 percent.
US pressure is being increased at a time when the US’ own political and economic attacks on China are intensifying. The latest National Security Strategy, published by the Biden administration last month, refers to China as the only competitor to the United States with “the intent” to “reshape the international order” and “the political economic, diplomatic, and military power” to do so.
As such, instruments of US national power must “out-compete” China while strengthening the network of alliances that can make this a reality for the United States. Identical passages are also in the new National Defense Strategy presented by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. In this document, the People’s Republic is “the pacing challenge” for the United States, one that Washington has declared it will use all means at its disposal against. Yet despite political rows within Germany and between Berlin and Washington over the COSCO bid, China’s role in key industries from shipbuilding to electric vehicles means that Germany for now still needs economic cooperation with China.