In Geopolitics This Week
Military Coup in Niger, Russia Hosts Africa Summit, Japan’s Semiconductor Export Restrictions Go Into Effect, and other stories.
I will (again) be taking some time off over the next few weeks. Therefore, there will be no publications until sometime next month.
Military Coup in Niger
A military coup in Niger this week has overturned the government of President Mohamed Bazoum and challenged Western influence in the region. On the 26th of July, soldiers announced on state television that they had dissolved the constitution and seized power. President Bazoum has since been held captive, drawing condemnation from the US and its allies.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued the Biden administration's first public response, warning that hundreds of millions of dollars of assistance provided by the US to Niger is now “in clear jeopardy.” He called for an immediate reversal of the coup and restoration of constitutional order. The African Union (AU) has responded, demanding that the military personnel “return to their barracks and restore constitutional authority” within 15 days. The European Union (EU) also responded by suspending all security cooperation with Niger. The EU's decision aligns with the stance taken by the US and France, both of which have refused to recognize the coup leaders. The EU's suspension of security cooperation and budgetary aid indefinitely demonstrates the Western bloc’s rejection of the coup and a commitment to supporting the previous government in Niger.
This is because the coup poses a major setback for Western interests in Africa amid growing competition with Russia for influence. Niger was seen as a pillar of stability and counterterrorism cooperation in the volatile Sahel region. For the US and allies like France, the coup demonstrates the precarious state of governance in West Africa. A wave of coups has toppled partner governments in nearby Mali, Burkina Faso and elsewhere, often citing state corruption and militant violence as justification. The collapse of Niger's government has raised concerns for the West, which may need to respond strategically to address the situation.
Russia appears poised to exploit the turmoil, having courted Mali and other regional governments sceptical of Western interference. Reports of the Russian Wagner Group's potential role in the Niger coup highlight Moscow's shadowy mercenary diplomacy. As Western influence recedes, Russia gains an opportunity to expand its presence. Broader instability may also empower militant networks in the Sahel and Lake Chad region. The US and France have invested heavily in counterterrorism capacity-building partnerships in Niger and neighbouring states now facing turmoil. Their ability to contain rival groups will be jeopardized without local coordination.
Russia Hosts Africa Summit
Russia recently held its second Africa summit in St. Petersburg, where President Vladimir Putin engaged with 17 African heads of state and representatives from 32 other countries, showcasing Russia's efforts to strengthen ties with the continent. During the summit, President Putin promised no-cost grain shipments to six African nations, which came in the wake of Russia's withdrawal from a grain export deal with Ukraine. The gesture was intended to address concerns about global food security and demonstrate Russia's commitment to helping those states most in need.
The summit's participation from a significant number of African leaders highlights Moscow's interest in expanding its influence in Africa, positioning the continent as a key ally in Russia's efforts to assert its global standing. However, the summit also reflects the delicate balance that African countries must maintain between relations with Russia and their Western allies. The competition for influence in Africa between Russia and the West may complicate efforts to mediate conflicts in countries like Sudan and Yemen, where differing approaches could exacerbate regional instability.
For African nations, engagement with Russia represents an opportunity to strengthen economic ties and pursue investment partnerships. However, these countries are also cautious about not becoming overly dependent on any single external power, given the potential implications for their sovereignty and domestic policies. While Russia's involvement in the continent may open up new trade and investment opportunities, it also necessitates careful negotiation to ensure that African nations can leverage these engagements for their mutual benefit.
Russia's focus on Africa as an investment destination reflects its broader strategy of diversifying economic and geopolitical partnerships amid international isolation. Africa's large population, significant voting bloc at the United Nations, and growing assertiveness on the global stage make countries on the continent attractive partners for Russia. With competing great powers vying for influence, African nations will likely assert their autonomy while leveraging engagements like this summit to secure advantage for their development needs. But managing these shifting dynamics effectively will require astute diplomacy in the years ahead.
Japan’s Semiconductor Export Restrictions Go Into Effect
Japan has implemented new export restrictions on advanced semiconductor production equipment, following the United States' lead, in an effort to stymie China's access to high-end chip technology that could be used for military purposes. The restrictions represent a significant move by Tokyo to align itself with Washington's efforts to constrain China's military-linked chip capabilities. However, this risks major economic blowback from Beijing, underscoring the delicate balancing act Japan faces between its strategic interests and trade dependencies.
The new restrictions target 23 specific types of equipment, and while Japan has not explicitly mentioned China as the main target, Beijing has expressed dissatisfaction. By clamping down on the export of cutting-edge chip production equipment, Japan has inserted itself near the centre of the intensifying technology war between the US and China. Advanced lithography and other tools that will now require export licences are vital for China's aspirations of fostering a self-sufficient, world-leading semiconductor industry, especially in advanced logic chips. Denying access risks hobbling these ambitions long-term, but could also invite retaliation from Beijing, potentially affecting Japanese economic interests in the near-term.
In particular, China's threats to restrict rare earth mineral exports critical for high-tech manufacturing in Japan and elsewhere highlight the complex interdependence at play. As key links in global tech supply chains, actions by any major player to gain strategic advantage risks consequences for overall market stability and trade flows. While Japan seeks security through export controls, it remains highly exposed to potential Chinese economic counter-pressure. Nevertheless, the embrace of export restrictions on strategic technologies shows Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's emphasis on boosting Japan's security posture even at the expense of trade and political friction. Japan is located in the frontlines of US-China tensions, so astute diplomacy is required to balance these duelling dynamics through reassuring engagement with both powers.