In Geopolitics This Week
Israel Launches Military Operation in Gaza, Ukraine Bolsters Long-Range Strike Capabilities, US Accuses South Africa of Covert Arms Supplies to Russia, and other stories.
Israel Launches Military Operation in Gaza
Over the past week, tensions between Israel and Palestinian militia groups have escalated, resulting in a series of airstrikes and rocket barrages. The Israeli military has intensified its attacks on Gaza as part of Operation Shield and Arrow, targeting senior members of Palestinian groups. In response, rockets have been launched from the Gaza Strip towards southern Israeli towns.
The attacks have caused significant damage to residential areas, with reports of buildings being destroyed and infrastructure being severely affected. The humanitarian situation in Gaza was already dire due to a total economic and social blockade imposed by Israel that has lasted over a decade, and the recent escalation has further exacerbated the suffering of the local population. International organizations, such as the UN Refugee Agency (UNRWA), are providing assistance despite the challenges.
Efforts for a ceasefire are currently underway, with Egypt playing a significant mediating role. Egypt has been instrumental in past truce negotiations and recently announced a ceasefire brokered by Cairo through its Extra News television channel. However, there has been no confirmation from Israel or the Palestinians regarding this development and rocket launches from Gaza and Israeli airstrikes still persist.
Ceasefire talks are being conducted by Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations to halt the hostilities, however, Israel has walked away from the talks early and appears to remain committed to its military operation. There are challenges in the negotiations, with Islamic Jihad demanding guarantees from the mediators and an end to Israel's policy of targeted killings. The violence has elicited mixed reactions, with some countries expressing support for Israel's right to self-defence, while others have called for restraint and an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Ukraine Bolsters Long-Range Strike Capabilities
Ukraine has received a significant boost to its long-range strike capability with the provision of Storm Shadow cruise missiles by the United Kingdom. These stealthy missiles, jointly developed by the UK and France, offer a firing range of over 250km and are usually launched from the air. The deployment of these missiles allows Ukraine to strike deep behind Russian lines. Reports suggest that the US is also preparing to send its own long-range missiles, indicating a coordinated effort to enhance Ukraine's strike capabilities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has emphasized the need for more time to prepare for the anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces. In addition to military aid, Ukraine is also receiving significant financial assistance from its allies. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko has revealed that Ukraine has received $16.7 billion in financial aid from its allies so far this year. The country is also seeking an additional $14 billion to support the repair and reconstruction of its energy sector and critical infrastructure. The continuous support from its international allies is vital in addressing Ukraine's substantial budget deficit.
The stakes are high for Ukraine and its allies as they jointly strategize the upcoming counteroffensive. Retaking the land corridor between Russia and Crimea would significantly impact Russia’s strategic position on the battlefield and is likely to encourage further economic and military aid to flow to Ukraine. However, with Russian forces digging in, the success and impact of the counteroffensive could be limited, and it remains to be seen how Ukraine will continue to navigate a complex geostrategic environment.
The situation in Ukraine remains fluid and unpredictable. The outcome of the counteroffensive will depend on a number of factors, including the strength of Ukrainian forces, the level of NATO intelligence support, and the Russian response. However, the provision of long-range missiles by the UK and the financial assistance from Ukraine's allies are significant developments that could help to tip the balance in Ukraine's favour.
US Accuses South Africa of Covert Arms Supplies to Russia
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is facing a foreign policy crisis as the United States accuses the country of covertly supplying arms to Russia. The US ambassador to South Africa alleges that the Russian vessel Lady R, which docked in Simon's Town naval dockyard near Cape Town in December, carried weapons and ammunition.
In response to the allegations, South Africa denied any record of an arms sale, summoned the US ambassador and ordered an inquiry to investigate the matter further. The US government has not provided specific details regarding the allegations but has acknowledged that it is a serious issue. Days later, South Africa's foreign ministry stated that the US ambassador that made the accusation, Reuben Brigety, has “apologised unreservedly” for the claims.
These accusations pose a complex challenge for South Africa as it navigates its international relationships and trade links while addressing political pressure from the US. The scandal threatens to overshadow South Africa's trade efforts and its non-aligned position on Ukraine. If confirmed by the US, these revelations may lead to Washington revoking South Africa's membership in the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which could significantly impact bilateral trade. However, it is unlikely that the US will take such drastic action at this stage as this could push South Africa closer to Russia and China.
Nonetheless, the speculation surrounding deteriorating relations between South Africa and the US has already caused negative economic repercussions, leading to the South African rand reaching its weakest level against the dollar on record. South Africa also faces a diplomatic dilemma over a possible visit this year by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Putin is due to visit South Africa in August for a meeting of leaders of the BRICS economic bloc.