In Geopolitics This Week
US Backs Guyana in Border Crisis with Venezuela, Fragmenting Mediation in the Gaza Crisis, France's High-Stakes Armenia Balancing Act, and other stories.
US Backs Guyana in Border Crisis with Venezuela
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro claims widespread public endorsement of his aggressive posture following last Sunday's referendum. However, Guyana outright rejects Venezuela's disregard of international arbitration. So while Maduro may posture publicly, the practical ramifications of the provocative referendum remain uncertain. Much relies on how forcefully Caracas pursues incorporating Essequibo lands.
By immediately demanding state oil and mining firms secure exploitation licences in Guyana's maritime territory, Maduro directly threatens the nation's ambitious hydrocarbon dreams. ExxonMobil's significant deepwater drilling operations could be severely disrupted by even limited Venezuelan incursions. As such, Georgetown will likely request defence support from Washington should Caracas turn toward military coercion or outright territorial annexation. US Secretary Blinken's forceful warning against violating Guyanese sovereignty and the plan to conduct a series of joint flight operations with the Guyana Defense Force indicates Washington will forcefully back Guyana.
But desperate Venezuelan moves also stem partly from anxiety over Guyana's coming petrodollar bonanza on its doorstep. For now, provocative Venezuelan actions seem largely confined to dramatic announcements and posturing. Maduro publicized plans for a new military division in borderlands, signalling resolve to challenge Guyana's claim. Furthermore, clearing jungle for airstrips and building homes in contested zones allows Venezuela to materially stake de facto control on the ground. Still, significant geographical and logistical barriers inhibit any prospects of a forceful mass invasion. Risks centre instead on small scale clashes from miscalculated symbolic incursions.
Regionally, early calls for renewed negotiation and mutual de-escalation from bodies like CARICOM and Mercosur reveal a strong preference to avoid emboldening either side toward unilateral militarism. However, such statements also reflect the complex, sometimes competing interests amongst Venezuela's neighbours. Tepid unity inhibits a united front opposing Caracas, even while all officially reject coercive land grabs that could inspire future border provocations elsewhere. Allowing force to override international arbitration through fait accompli territorial conquest could be deeply destabilizing if unanswered.
Fragmenting Mediation in the Gaza Crisis
As Gaza's humanitarian emergency becomes increasingly dire, key global powers articulate sharply contradictory positions that widen fault lines within the international community. Another US veto to the immediate ceasefire resolution tabled at the UN Security Council on Friday forms a jarring contrast with the urgent pleas emanating from across much of the Islamic world and beyond. While Washington reinforces Israeli refusals for truce talks absent a total defeat of Hamas, swelling voices from Ankara, Tehran, Arab capitals and elsewhere plead for diplomacy.
Washington's lonely veto differed from the abstentions of peers like the United Kingdom and France, instead aligning itself with Israeli maximalist positions. This spotlights a shallow US commitment to traditional allies’ preferences for de-escalation and negotiations aimed at securing humanitarian relief as a precursor to enduring peace. Meanwhile, the sympathetic outcry emanating from regional powers like Turkey, Arab states and even rival Iran in support of besieged Gazans further diplomatically isolates the United States.
The Stark divide between Washington’s lopsided backing and more balanced pleas weaken any mediating role for the US. As steadfast defenders of Israeli security first, the US has forfeited any mediating credibility by refusing to even symbolically acknowledge immense Palestinian loss of life and stalled progress. This partisan posture by the US cedes influence over potential diplomatic off-ramps to those European and regional voices that address suffering on all sides. Momentum is now growing for alternative mediating formats, spearheaded regionally.
France's High-Stakes Armenia Balancing Act
France's recent sale of advanced air defence systems to Armenia represents the latest move in its long-running geopolitical rivalry with Turkey. Beyond any material significance for Armenia itself, the deal enables France to counter Turkey's growing influence across the Middle East and North Africa. Ankara is hostile to increased French military involvement, with Erdoğan calling the latest arms sales a “provocation.”
Following crushing 2020 war defeats, Armenia has diversified arms ties, including pledges from Paris to provide over 50 Bastion armoured carriers plus Mistral missiles and advanced radar systems. French leadership has proclaimed these arms sales would build Armenia’s self-defence capabilities. However, the long-standing rivalry between France and Turkey informs strategic calculations just as much as revealing a commitment to Yerevan in its time of need. The key factors at play in motivating expanded France-Armenia defence cooperation include reinforcing a vulnerable ally, counterbalancing regional opponents, and securing economic opportunities for the French defence industry.
France's regional calculus regarding Turkey is uncompromising, with cooperation elusive. From bitterly opposing proxies in Libyan and Syrian wars to conflicting maritime energy claims, it is difficult for Ankara and Paris to find any common ground in a zero-sum rivalry. Paris has likely deduced that allowing Ankara to consolidate relationships across the Caucasus would deepen cultural-economic links between Azeris and ethnic Turkic allies. This, in turn, would strengthen Turkey's leverage by bestowing decisive influence over Eurasian connectivity corridors. By contrast, keeping conflict simmering with Armenia keeps Turkey off balance.
The weapons deliveries enable multiple layers of long-term French objectives. With Turkey solidifying its North African footprint and eyeing Eastern Mediterranean energy spoils, each small strategic foothold along Ankara’s potential trans-Caucasus trade route that France maintains threatens Turkey’s swelling influence in overlapping spheres. So rather than merely securing profits for its defence industry or appeasing its sizable Armenian diaspora, France likely calculated that leverage gained against Turkey outweighs potential instability from empowering Armenia against Turkish-aligned Azerbaijan.