In Geopolitics This Week
Ukraine and Russia Trade Blame over Dam Collapse, France Objects to Proposed NATO Office in Tokyo, US and India Agree on Roadmap to Strengthen Defence Partnership, and other stories.
Ukraine and Russia Trade Blame over Dam Collapse
A major dam in southern Ukraine has collapsed, causing widespread flooding and endangering crops in the country's agricultural heartland. The incident has led to escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia, with both sides blaming each other for the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and hydroelectric power station. Ukrainian authorities accuse Russian forces of blowing up the dam in an area controlled by Moscow, while Russian officials claim that Ukrainian bombardment in the contested region caused the disaster.
The conflicting claims surrounding the dam's collapse make it challenging to determine the exact cause of the incident. The breach of the dam, one of the world's largest reservoirs, adds a new dimension to the war between Russia and Ukraine. The collapse raises concerns about the environmental impact and the safety of nearby nuclear power plants, with both countries warning of a potential ecological disaster, including further flooding and significant damage to villages and towns along the Dnieper River.
The collapse of the dam will have economic repercussions, particularly on crop yields. The damage caused will force Ukraine to adjust its emerging counteroffensive plans, but will not fundamentally alter them. The impact on the militaries of both Russia and Ukraine depends on factors such as the stabilization of water flows in the coming weeks and months. The collapse severely damaged the dam gates and the upper works of the power plant, with the underwater parts of the dam remaining intact for now. Villages below the dam are already experiencing flooding, and water levels in those areas are expected to rise further. Water levels above the collapsed site of the dam in the Kakhovka reservoir are steadily dropping.
In the short term, both Russia and Ukraine will need to adjust their military positions due to tactical challenges caused by the flooding. Russian forces stationed south of the Dnieper River will face complications as rising water levels flood minefields and destroy fortifications. However, in the long term, the dam's damage could provide military benefits to both sides, depending on how water levels stabilize. The stabilization of water levels and the evaporation of water from the delta will impact the war, potentially complicating Russia's efforts and requiring Ukraine to disperse its military assets. The situation remains fluid, and the full extent of the consequences resulting from the dam collapse in Ukraine will only become clear in the coming weeks and months.
French President Objects to Proposed NATO Office in Tokyo
Discussions within NATO about expanding into the Indo-Pacific region have been complicated by French President Emmanuel Macron's objection to a proposed NATO office in Tokyo. Macron argues that NATO should maintain its focus on the North Atlantic and European strategic space, underscoring the divergent perspectives among European NATO members regarding the primary threat posed by China. This resistance has the potential to disrupt the United States-led plans to draw in European NATO members into its Indo-Pacific security architecture.
France's objection reflects a reluctance to engage in actions that may further escalate tensions between NATO and China. Macron's stance complicates NATO's efforts to define its role in the face of China's rise while supporting Ukraine against Russia. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has emphasized the importance of strengthening partnerships with Indo-Pacific allies, stating that “what happens in Asia matters for Europe and what happens in Europe matters for Asia.” China asserts that the organization's scope should be limited to the North Atlantic, with Beijing warning Japan to act in line with regional stability and development interests, refraining from actions that may undermine mutual trust.
Macron's objections are rooted in France's broader perspective on NATO's role in the Indo-Pacific region. France has been actively asserting its presence and interests in the Indo-Pacific on its own terms, driven by strategic considerations, existing partnerships, and its vision for maintaining stability and influence in the region. France's strategic interests in the region stem from its overseas territories, including Réunion Island, Mayotte, French Polynesia, and New Caledonia. These territories provide France with a strategic foothold and access to critical sea lanes, making the security and stability of the region important to French national security.
France's opposition has created hurdles in the discussions within NATO regarding the establishment of the Tokyo outpost. The establishment of a NATO office in Tokyo requires unanimous approval from all 30 NATO member countries, with France's consent being crucial for the proposal to move forward. Japan has been advocating for a local NATO office since 2007 but has already set up a liaison office in Brussels in 2018. A potential compromise could involve expanding Japan's NATO office in Brussels or increasing cooperation with Japan outside of formal NATO mechanisms. The outcome will depend on whether Macron relents or if a joint statement outlining limits of cooperation with Japan is reached.
US and India Agree on Roadmap to Strengthen Defence Partnership
The recent visit of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to India marked a significant step in enhancing the security partnership between the two countries. The discussions centred around formulating a roadmap for military industrial cooperation over the next five years, as India aims to reduce its reliance on Russia for arms procurement. While the roadmap includes ambitious plans for co-development and co-production projects, these commitments must be supported by tangible action.
India has traditionally been a close ally of Russia, which remains its largest arms supplier. However, recent geopolitical developments have prompted India to diversify its sources of imports and bolster domestic defence production. The United States and France are among the countries engaging in negotiations for multi-billion-dollar defence contracts with India, with technology transfers being a key priority for the Indian government.
The roadmap focuses on expediting technology cooperation and co-production in areas such as air combat, land mobility systems, undersea operations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). The US Defense Department states that this initiative aims to revolutionize cooperation between the two countries' defence sectors, granting India access to advanced technologies and supporting its defence modernization plans. The discussions also covered cooperation in space, cyberspace, and artificial intelligence, highlighting the comprehensive nature of the evolving partnership.
The United States and India share concerns over China rising economic and military influence. As India navigates its diplomatic balancing act between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (which includes China and Russia) and the Quad (formed with the US, Japan, and Australia), India is advancing its military development goals without compromising its partnerships. The US-India ties aim to reinforce supply chains, foster technological advancements, and enhance operational coordination across all military services. The visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Washington later this month will provide an opportunity for further discussions and the potential consolidation of defence cooperation between the two countries.