In Geopolitics This Week
Arab States Show Support for Syria's Return to Regional Fold, UK and EU Reach Agreement over the Trade Status of Northern Ireland, and other stories.
Arab States Show Support for Syria's Return to Regional Fold
Syria is potentially on the brink of returning to the Arab world after 12 years of isolation. Following two devastating earthquakes that struck the country's northwest, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad held talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during his visit to Damascus on Monday. This marks the first visit by a high-level Egyptian official since the Syrian conflict erupted during the "Arab Spring" uprisings in 2011.
Throughout the conflict, most Arab states supported rebel groups seeking to overthrow Assad's government, which was subsequently expelled from the 22-member Arab League. However, since 2015, Russia and Iran have maintained a strong military presence in Syria, enabling Assad to remain in power. Now, with recent military gains consolidated, regional states are taking steps to end Syria's isolation, with the UAE leading Arab rapprochement efforts.
Despite these diplomatic developments, the United States remains opposed to any normalization of ties with Damascus. The State Department has explicitly stated that the US "will not normalize" and does not "support other countries normalizing" relations with the Syrian government.
Nevertheless, several Arab countries are attempting to restore diplomatic ties with Syria, and the recent visit by the Egyptian delegation is the latest such effort. As the world continues to deal with the aftermath of the Syrian conflict, it remains to be seen how these moves towards reintegration will develop in the long run. The situation is rapidly evolving, and it will be essential to monitor developments in the region closely in the coming months and years. The visits by Shoukry and other Arab leaders to Syria signal a possible inter-Arab thaw that could lead to Syria's full diplomatic reintegration into the region.
UK and EU Reach Agreement over the Trade Status of Northern Ireland
The United Kingdom and the European Union have reached a new trade agreement for Northern Ireland, after months of talks about a highly disputed protocol agreed in 2019. The deal, known as the Windsor Framework, aims to alleviate trading issues caused by the Northern Ireland Protocol, which was part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement ratified in January 2020.
The Protocol established trade rules that allowed goods to pass between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, ensuring no hard border would be created between the two. The agreement on this protocol is crucial because creating a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could have jeopardized the Good Friday Agreement. The new Windsor Framework has created a “green lane” for goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland as their final destination, requiring fewer checks. Goods heading to the Republic of Ireland, and therefore the EU single market, will pass through a separate and more stringent “red lane.”
The deal is essential for establishing the UK and EU’s long-term relationship on a stable footing, and it may be the foundation for further improvements in the post-Brexit EU-UK relationship. New data-sharing arrangements will be used to monitor and manage risks, with internal UK traders able to move goods without tariffs on the basis of ordinary commercial information and without physical checks unless there is a specific risk or intelligence basis to prevent smuggling or other criminality.
Russian and Western Diplomats Spar over Ukraine at G20 Summit
The recent Group of 20 (G20) meeting in New Delhi turned out to be yet another occasion for Russian and Western diplomats to clash over the war in Ukraine. Even as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for all parties to “rise above differences,” his government issued a chair's summary and outcome document instead of the usual joint communique.
Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar explained that “there were differences on the Ukraine issue which we could not reconcile between various parties who held differing positions.” For the second G20 event in a row, Russia and China opposed the inclusion of paragraphs about the war in Ukraine.
During the meeting, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused some Western delegations of turning the G20 agenda “into a farce” to shift blame for their economic failures, while complaining that Western members of the grouping had never reprimanded Washington to for its “adventures” in the Middle East under the pretext of addressing national security threats. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Russia to “end this war of aggression” and “engage in meaningful diplomacy that can produce a just and durable peace.”
The Bali statement from the G20 leaders summit in Indonesia last year was seen as a diplomatic achievement despite the obvious divide between powers. However, Russia and China have now moved back from the Bali declaration. Lavrov stated that the formula “is a thing of the past” and that Western leaders are not “calling upon Ukraine to start negotiations.” The recent G20 meeting demonstrates the difficulty of finding common ground on complex issues such as the Ukraine war, with deepening tensions between Russia and the West on display.