In Geopolitics This Week
Ethiopia Signs Agreement with Somaliland for Berbera Port Access, Hezbollah's Responds to Israel's Targeted Assassination, South Africa Files ICJ Case Accusing Israel of Genocide, and other stories.
Ethiopia Signs Agreement with Somaliland for Berbera Port Access
Ethiopia has signed an agreement with Somaliland granting Ethiopia basing rights for naval forces at the port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia's eventual recognition of an independent Somaliland. This immediately provoked a strong reaction from Somalia, which rejects the deal as a violation of its sovereignty, given Somaliland is considered Somali territory. Somalia recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia and called for the AU to intervene to defend regional stability.
For landlocked Ethiopia, the Berbera naval base deal carries significant economic and strategic benefits. Economically, securing access to the Red Sea port provides an alternative trade route to Ethiopia's reliance on transit through Djibouti. Strategically, the basing rights mark a first step in Ethiopia developing power projection capabilities through a future navy. However, strained relations with Somalia jeopardize cooperation against the mutual threat posed by al-Shabab. Losing Somalia as a regional security partner may impose near term costs on Ethiopia for longer term naval gains.
For Somalia, Ethiopia's move empowers a breakaway province seeking independence that Somalia insists remains Somali territory under Mogadishu's authority. While Ethiopia gains an economic and military partner in an aspirational Somaliland state, Somalia perceives the erosion of its domestic control as national interests diverge with its neighbour and historical rival. Consequently, the deal has exposed a clash between Ethiopia prioritizing its strategic ambitions, and perceived Somali weakness allowing external players to dictate events inside its borders.
The downstream implications of the naval basing agreement highlight deeper geopolitical dynamics at play in the Horn of Africa, where contests over ports and maritime influence are becoming commonplace. As powers like Turkey, the UAE, China, and others have vied to shape developments in countries like Somalia through port deals, Ethiopia has felt increasingly cut out from access to maritime trade routes it once dominated. This context explains Ethiopia's willingness to leverage Somaliland's aspirations for recognition to secure both port access and forward basing rights.
Hezbollah's Responds to Israel's Targeted Assassination
This week saw a dangerous escalation after Israel assassinated a senior Hamas military commander in a targeted drone strike in Beirut. The killing of the Palestinian militant group's deputy chief took place deep inside Lebanon's capital in an area controlled by Hezbollah, brazenly violating the country's sovereignty. While Israel offered no official confirmation of its involvement, the strike bore all the hallmarks of its campaign to decapitate enemy leadership through extrajudicial killings of operatives abroad.
In swift retaliation, Hezbollah fired over 60 rockets at military positions in northern Israel, striking the Meron air surveillance base. It described this act as preliminary payback for Israel’s breach of Lebanese sovereignty and the killing of a close ally on its soil. The crisis continues escalating dangerously, with Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah warning of unconstrained regional conflict in speeches broadcast internationally. Meanwhile, Israeli leaders threaten devastating strikes on Lebanese infrastructure and civilian areas if Hezbollah rockets target Israel.
The severe flare-up spotlights the steady erosion of traditionally accepted constraints on extrajudicial assassinations and remote warfare in an age of uncontrolled technological innovation. Israel has increasingly targeted suspected foes across borders with relative impunity, including Iranian nuclear scientists, while citing questionable self-defence imperatives. Major Western powers often turn a blind eye towards such transgressions by Israel and other geostrategic allies. Israel's spy chief was even vowing lethal strikes to eliminate all Hamas leaders in the region, statements that stoke perceptions of unaccountable aggression.
Such brazen extraterritorial actions typically carry unintended consequences contrary to the stated security aims. This latest incident seems likely to dangerously inflame Israel's parallel conflicts with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon simultaneously, spurring retaliatory attacks across multiple domains. It has already helped unite militant groups opposing Israel under a banner of resisting violations of sovereignty. If international norms continue to fray, the indirect costs for regional and global order may eventually outstrip any short-term military gains.
South Africa Files ICJ Case Accusing Israel of Genocide
This week, South Africa filed a case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. South Africa's legal application extensively details how Israel has deliberately killed over 20,000 Gazan civilians, destroyed critical infrastructure necessary for basic survival, and imposed living conditions with the clear intent to “bring about the physical destruction” of the Palestinian people. The application further cites numerous public statements by Israeli political and military leaders as evidence of genocidal motives and requests the court take urgent action to halt further crimes by Israel in Gaza.
While the case represents a high-profile international effort to legally define Israel's current military operations in Gaza as constituting genocide under the 1948 Genocide Convention, securing definitive legal rulings from the ICJ is complex and time-consuming. However, even a preliminary ICJ affirmation that Israel's actions appear systematically genocidal could powerfully reinforce intensifying demands for Gaza's bombardment to end. Additionally, such affirmation from the UN's highest court may spur investigations into individual war crime allegations against Israeli officials by bodies like the International Criminal Court.
In response to the lawsuit, Israel has fiercely contested the evidence-based claims and is already preparing a defence. While the complex ICJ case may not swiftly produce legal judgments due to institutional inertia, the fact it has forced Israel to vigorously defend its record already suggests genuine reputational impacts. However, meaningful change in Gaza likely depends more on coordinated diplomatic pressure from global stakeholders. While exact timelines remain uncertain, initial hearings looking at South Africa's detailed evidence take place next week.
South Africa's genocide lawsuit represents an important moral challenge, bringing heightened international scrutiny on Gaza's humanitarian crisis and the scale of documented rights violations still ongoing. By systematically evidencing apparent war crimes in Gaza, the suit brings urgent attention to the crisis, even if complex legal wrangling cannot halt the violence in practice. While the ICJ lacks enforcement power, the case can assist by shaping narratives and catalysing coordinated diplomatic pressure on Israel.