In Geopolitics This Week
Azerbaijan Seizes Control of Nagorno-Karabakh, Sahel States Forge Mutual Defence Alliance, Venezuela Denounces Guyana's Offshore Oil Auctions, and other stories.
Azerbaijan Seizes Control of Nagorno-Karabakh
Azerbaijan has gained control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region after a decisive military offensive forced local ethnic Armenian forces to agree to disarm and withdraw. Under a Russian-brokered ceasefire, Armenia disavowed direct involvement while Azerbaijan declared restoration of its territorial sovereignty. However, with allegations of ceasefire violations, the situation remains tense as negotiations begin on Nagorno-Karabakh's future status. Azerbaijan now holds greater leverage, but risks provoking further conflict if security assurances for Armenians fall short.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has roots in competing ethnic nationalist claims following the Soviet Union’s collapse. While Azerbaijan regained control over occupied territories in 2020, tensions have persisted over the region's status. Fresh violence flared over mutual accusations of shelling and military build-ups, largely by Azerbaijan in an effort to dictate terms by force. At the same time, Russia has struggled to restrain Baku, despite its own peacekeeping responsibilities. Meanwhile, calls for restraint from France, the United States and the European Union have achieved little.
Azerbaijan's decisive victory in capturing Nagorno-Karabakh will increase its leverage over Armenia in future talks, with Baku now better positioned to threaten further military action. However, heavy-handed demands risk provoking Armenian resistance and Western sanctions. Russia also loses influence after failing to uphold ceasefire commitments as a peacekeeper. While Armenia faces domestic pressure over territorial losses, its options are constrained militarily and diplomatically. The outcome of peace negotiations will be pivotal in determining whether durable stability can emerge.
The latest outbreak of hostilities demonstrates how historical disputes left unresolved can be rapidly inflamed by nationalist passions. While Azerbaijan has gained control of the region, trust with the local Armenian population remains fragile. Progress requires committed diplomacy and willingness to compromise, with all parties avoiding unilateral actions prior to negotiations. Securing peace will hinge on balancing Azerbaijan's strengthened hand with inclusive reconciliation that addresses the local Armenians' concerns.
Sahel States Forge Mutual Defence Alliance
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have formed a mutual defence pact called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The agreement allows the nations to provide military assistance to each other against armed rebellion or external aggression. This new bloc represents a show of autonomy from former colonial power France, which has withdrawn troops after relations soured amid recent military coups. However, with instability still plaguing the region, the viability of the AES will depend on its ability to tangibly improve security across the Sahel.
The new Sahel alliance has roots in the countries' shared struggles with escalating Islamic militancy and perceptions of French abandonment. Together, they hope to accomplish what previous multinational counterterrorism efforts like the G5 Sahel could not. However, the alliance members possess limited capacity and infrastructure to drastically boost security across the three states. Nevertheless, the three governments view cooperation on military and economic matters as key to stability and self-sufficiency during this turbulent period.
Broader geopolitical motives likely factor into the AES as well. The defence agreement lets the coup leaders present a unified front against pressure from the ECOWAS bloc to restore the previous government. It also provides justification for resisting interventions in member states' internal affairs. But much depends on delivering concrete security improvements to populations suffering from long-running violence. The pact may also isolate regional partners like Chad and Mauritania, especially given the growing pressure by ECOWAS and foreign powers to return all three members of the AES to civilian rule.
The new Sahel alliance has uncertain prospects given the region's complex dynamics. While driven by practical security imperatives, the bloc also represents nationalistic resistance to external interference. Its test will be balancing autonomy with inclusive regional relationships and proving its counterterrorism mettle. But the pact reveals fluid defence realignments as the Sahel seeks to break dependency on former colonial ties. Managing autonomy and stability will require delicate statecraft from the fragile junta governments.
Venezuela Denounces Guyana's Offshore Oil Auctions
The long-running border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana has intensified in recent years with the discovery of significant offshore oil deposits. The contested Essequibo region spans over 160,000 square km and is rich in natural resources. While Guyana recognizes a 1899 boundary set by arbitration, Venezuela argues this ruling was invalid and refers to a 1966 agreement with the UK calling for negotiation. With billions of barrels of oil at stake, Venezuela has denounced Guyana's exploration activities as illegal, asserting sovereignty over the disputed waters. However, Guyana maintains it has the right to develop resources within its territory.
This territorial quarrel has its roots in competing colonial claims and uncertain international arbitration in the 19th century. Venezuela's objections to the 1899 boundary stem from perceptions of unfair process and external pressure at the time. However, Guyana sees the ruling as legitimate and the border as long-settled. The dispute highlights the lingering impact of ambiguous or controversial historical agreements on contemporary politics. It also shows how new discoveries of high-value resources can reanimate dormant conflicts by raising the stakes.
With mistrust and nationalism constraining compromise, a diplomatic solution has remained elusive despite periodic efforts at negotiation over the decades. Unilateral actions and rhetoric by both sides risk escalating tensions and prompting retaliations. A possible legal judgement from the International Court of Justice may provide clarity, but still faces non-compliance by the losing party. Creating an environment conducive to pragmatic diplomacy will require political will, regional engagement and guarantees that development proceeds equitably regardless of an eventual border delineation.
The Venezuela-Guyana controversy serves as an example of how post-colonial territorial ambiguities, nationalist sentiment and resource pressures can combine to hinder peaceful settlement of border disputes. While arbitration and adjudication have value in providing evidence and structure, durable solutions ultimately require nuanced statesmanship that balances history and law with economic realities. With flexibility and good faith efforts, even long-running quarrels like this can find creative means of compromise and cooperation that serve both sides' interests.