In Geopolitics This Week
The EU Is Ill-Equipped to Play Major Role in Indo-Pacific, US Nuclear-Powered Submarine Suffers Damage in Collision, Russia Weighs in on Europe’s Energy Crisis, and other stories.
Monday, October 4th
OPEC+ Meeting Promises No Deviation from Agreed Plan
In July this year, the OPEC+ group of nations all agreed to ramp up oil production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) every month from August onwards. Today, following another meeting of the OPEC+ group, it was announced that the terms of the prior agreement will be adhered to, and the next month will therefore see no change to the plans of increasing production by 400,000 bpd.
For years the surge in US shale production has afforded Washington a dominant hand in oil markets, but the latest Dallas Fed Survey found that costs in the industry have continued rising sharply for the second quarter. The report also highlighted a slowdown in growth in the oil and gas sector in the US. With the costs associated with shale production rising in the United States, OPEC+ is in a strong position to influence oil markets.
This means that OPEC+ — altogether holding 55 percent of the global oil supplies and 90 percent of proven global oil reserves — is afforded a level of influence over the critical resource rarely seen before. OPEC+ members plan to stick to the deal until 2022. Crude oil prices have risen to about $80 per barrel, with the price expected to rise further due to an increase in demand for oil as economies the world over are opening up and lifting strict COVID-19 restrictions. This spells good news for all OPEC+ members, but especially Russia and Saudi Arabia, both of which are major contributors to global oil production.
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Russia Tests Submarine-launched Hypersonic Missiles
The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation announced that the Russian Navy has successfully completed two submarine-launched flight tests of its Циркон or “Tsirkon” missile. If confirmed, the successful launches would mark a world first as the Tsirkon hypersonic missile had previously only been fired by surface warships.
The successful launch of these advanced missiles implies that Moscow is well-positioned in the hypersonic race, and is the first country to conduct a successful flight test of such weapons from a nuclear-powered submarine. In the first test, the missile was fired from a surfaced submarine, while in the second, the Severodvinsk successfully launched a Tsirkon missile from a submerged position. Russian hypersonic weapons testing will now likely look toward conducting salvo firing tests of the missile.
The development of hypersonic weapons and the deployment of systems like Avangard and Tsirkon are part and parcel of Russia’s military modernisation drive. While some still doubt just how capable Russia’s new generation of weapons are, many are starting to recognise the credibility of the threat that the speed, manoeuvrability, and altitude of hypersonic missiles pose. What few deny is that hypersonic technology will be disruptive, and that the development and deployment of hypersonic weapons will likely upend strategic stability.
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Tuesday, October 5th
The EU Is Ill-Equipped to Play Major Role in Indo-Pacific
As the United States prepares for systemic conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific, European Union member states are not united on the path forward in such a hostile international environment. European views on China continue to be contested and, at times, even appear to be moving in different directions. But if the EU is serious about playing a role in the Indo-Pacific while also attaining ‘strategic autonomy’ from the United States, it will have to invest in more than just economic deals in the region.
EU member states’ relations with China vary greatly. While Lithuania has become embroiled in a diplomatic spat with China over the opening of diplomatic offices for Taiwanese officials, Vilnius has not received widespread public support for its position from fellow member states. Moreover, Hungary has actively courted investment from China, has for years maintained positive relations with Beijing, and has even represented Chinese views within EU institutions. In all, the EU does not have a view toward Beijing uniform enough to carve out a consistent EU-wide policy toward China, and by extension, toward the Indo-Pacific.
The EU often does not put the necessary resources behind its intentions. So far, the EU Indo-Pacific strategy does not outline any significant defence capacity for the EU in the region, providing little leverage for the enforcement of EU member state interests. While individual member states, such as France, play crucial security roles in this part of the world, they are few and far between, with most EU member states possessing little influence over affairs in Asia, and even less so over matters of security. To ensure that European interests are not side-lined in the Indo-Pacific going forward, the EU would have to drastically shift its role and work to deepen security ties with partner nations in the region.
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The UK Publishes Its First National Space Strategy
The United Kingdom has recently published its very first National Space Strategy (NSS). The document sets out the country’s vision, as outlined by the current government, for its future engagement with space through science, technology and defence. The paper focuses on industry as it outlines the UK’s vision, goals, and plans for space. One of the main avenues for the UK to achieve its goals in space according to the strategy document will be by financing space-focused private enterprises.
The NSS demonstrates that space is a keen interest for the UK as the country takes stock of its capabilities in a realistic assessment of what can be achieved. The publication of the UK’s NSS comes at a time when space is becoming increasingly accessible, with states no longer the only major players in this domain, and the strategy recognises this reality. Nevertheless, the NSS admits that many critical capabilities in space — civilian or military — now demand huge quantities of data which will require access to advanced space technologies.
The NSS also recognises the limitations of the UK in its approach to space. The document stresses that many critical technologies in this domain will require collaborative efforts and the UK aims to continue working together with the European Space Agency, NASA, and JAXA going forward in order to jointly develop and operate complex civilian and military projects in space. Much of this collaboration is expected to take place over the next nine years, as the document outlines four phases of implementation for the entire strategy: the ‘countdown phase’ over the next three months; the ‘ignition phase’ throughout 2022; the ‘thrust phase’ between 2023 and 2030; and the ‘orbit phase’ commencing 2030.
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Wednesday, October 6th
Mali Flirting with Russian Mercenaries
Despite the presence of thousands of French and UN troops in Mali, the country has been engulfed in violence, which has even spread to neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger. Mali has become one of the most unstable areas of Africa’s entire Sahel region, — a semi-arid grassland around the southern limit of the Sahara Desert — as violent attacks on government forces become increasingly commonplace. Now, as international investors threaten to pull out, Mali is desperately seeking ways of maintaining stability.
Ever since the last coup rocked Bamako in May this year, international investors have warned the government in Mali that foreign aid will stop unless drastic political reforms are undertaken. France, which operates thousands of counterterrorist troops throughout the Sahel, was one of the principal critics of the coup, and French threats to withhold aid appear to have pushed the military government in Bamako to seek financial aid elsewhere. As the government in Mali attempts to replace the French military presence which has brought little political progress to the country, officials are turning to Russia for a solution.
Mali has for years maintained close ties to Russia, with the two countries signing two separate defence cooperation agreements in 1994 and 2019 respectively. Now, as relations between Paris and Bamako sour, Mali has reportedly been negotiating with the Wagner Group — a private military contractor with ties to the Russian state. Reports indicate that Mali wants to spend around $10 million a month to hire military trainers from Wagner Group which will assist in troop training and accompany Malian troops into combat zones. Whether the imminent deal between Mali and Wagner Group is a genuine search for security or a threat to its international investors is unclear, but regardless, such negotiations are sure to attract the attention of Paris and Washington.
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India Expects First S-400 Delivery This Year
In October 2018, India signed a deal worth $5 billion for the purchase of five units of the S-400 air defence missile system from Russia. Following the signing of the deal, New Delhi was on the receiving end of a warning by Washington, where officials made clear that the deal may result in US sanctions. Nevertheless, India last year made the first $800 million payment to Russia for the missile system. India seems to have swept Washington’s warnings to one side and appears determined to go ahead with the purchase.
The S-400 is considered a highly effective system. Comprised of an anti-aircraft weapon system, a radar system and launcher vehicles, the S-400 will give India a highly-capable surface-to-air weapons system. As things stand, Indian servicemen have already arrived in Russia in order to learn how to operate the missile system, and the Indian armed forces will soon receive the first S-400 regiment delivery from Russia. With advanced training and a timely delivery of the systems likely, New Delhi is hoping to bring the systems into operational service before the end of the year.
But the deal may yet faulter in the face of US sanctions. Following US measures against Turkey for its purchase of the S-400 system, there are credible fears in New Delhi that Washington may impose similar measures on India. Through the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the US has on multiple occasions applied its sanctions regime on purchases of Russian weapons, so fears in New Delhi are hardly unfounded. A senior US diplomat visiting New Delhi described the purchase of the S-400 system as “dangerous,” and said that the purchase of the S-400 was a point of discussion in meetings held between India and the US.
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Thursday, October 7th
US Nuclear-Powered Submarine Suffers Damage in Collision
A nuclear-powered attack submarine operated by the United States Navy is said to have been involved in an underwater collision with an unspecified object in the South China Sea earlier this month. The Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine USS Connecticut is reported to have been damaged in the collision, while almost a dozen sailors have been injured. The US Pacific Fleet said that the USS Connecticut “struck an object while submerged” on the 2nd of October.
The Navy has stated that the submarine is now in a stable condition, and that the nuclear propulsion system of the submarine has not been affected. According to the Navy Times, the injuries suffered by the sailors aboard the submarine were not life threatening, and mainly consisted of “bumps, bruises, and lacerations.” Whatever damage the advanced Seawolf-class submarine has suffered remains unclear, with the Pacific Fleet stating that the extent of damage is currently under assessment.
A damaged submarine will typically surface in order to prevent further damage, as the pressurised underwater environment can have catastrophic consequences for a submarine operating with a damaged hull. It remains unclear if the USS Connecticut is fit to submerge as the vessel makes its way back to port in Guam. The USS Connecticut is one of three advanced Seawolf-class submarines which is widely considered to be one of the most silent and deadly nuclear-powered submarines operated by any military force. The Seawolf-class submarines were built as the Cold War was nearing its end, and were intended to seek out and destroy Soviet submarines in deep waters.
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Italy Abandons its Drone Program
Italy has announced that its government will be dropping long-held plans to purchase a fleet of Hammerhead UAV drones for its armed forces. Instead, Italy will purchase six new Piaggio Aerospace aircraft in an effort to breathe life into a domestic defence manufacturer. The Italian Defence Ministry has stated that the country will spend roughly €170 million to buy six P.180 Avanti Evo turboprop aircraft, a flight simulator for training pilots, and associated maintenance work.
The purchase comes at a time when the Italian defence firm Piaggio Aerospace has been financially struggling. The new contract over six P.180 Avanti Evo aircraft now mean that Rome has fulfilled its commitments to broker about €700 million in arms deals for the firm to get back on its feet. Piaggio Aerospace’s commissioner, Vincenzo Nicastro, stated that the order by the Italian government “further enhances the value of the company.”
Piaggio Aerospace had been courting buyers for its Hammerhead UAV program, with the United Arab Emirates expressing the most interest in buying the drone. But Italy has been slow to commit to a purchase of its own, which has led to the UAE walking away from the deal, cancelling its orders and placing the firm in a difficult financial position as the drones were nearing completion. Rome’s decision to replace its order of the Hammerhead UAV drones ― effectively letting the drone program die in the process ― means that Piaggio Aerospace will not be left in financial ruin as the contract over six P.180 Avanti Evo aircraft will keep the company afloat in the near-term.
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Friday, October 8th
Russia Weighs in on Europe’s Energy Crisis
Moscow is skilfully navigating the energy crisis currently plaguing Europe. Due to high consumption and limited supply, storage levels for natural gas in Europe are at their lowest in a decade. Russia’s Gazprom has reinforced anxiety by limiting supply and forecasting a “cold, snowy winter in Europe,” while Russian President Vladimir Putin staged an informal policy discussion with officials from Russia’s energy sector.
Putin attributed the European gas crisis largely to decisions made by the European Commission. The policy discussion blamed the crisis on an overreliance on volatile gas markets, the unreliability of wind and solar energy, and a miscalculation of the energy supply-demand balance. In the meeting Putin dismissed complaints that Russia is withholding gas from European markets, and remarked that Russia is fully meeting its obligations under existing supply contracts. Among the solutions offered was the quick certification and the start of operation for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The head of Gazprom has proposed that Russian electrical power plants should begin to stockpile fuel oil for possible use in generating electricity, thus allowing Russia to redirect natural gas volumes to increase its export volume to Europe. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that Russia is indeed meeting its natural gas supply commitments to Europe under existing contracts, remarking that there have been no gas purchase requests that Russia has as yet turned down. Russia is showing a willingness to ease Europe’s energy woes in exchange for German and EU support for the certification of its Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
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US Training Taiwanese Troops in Secret
Recent reports suggest that the United States has been engaged in the secret training of Taiwanese troops for over a year. US Marines and a special operations team are said to be training ground and maritime forces on rotational deployments in Taiwan. The Pentagon has previously dismissed such reports as “inaccurate” when questioned on the issue. In response to the latest reports on the matter, a Pentagon spokesperson neither confirmed nor denied the presence of active US military personnel in Taiwan, declining to comment on “specific operations, engagements or training.”
The US officially withdrew its armed forces from Taiwan in 1979 as Washington established relations with Beijing. At the same time however, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, which stipulates that the US must help Taiwan to “maintain a sufficient self-defence capability.” Through this legislation, Washington has openly sold weapons to Taipei since then, angering Beijing in the process. But with China's rapid economic and military expansion of recent years, Washington may feel the need to reinforce Taiwan’s capabilities even further to maintain the status quo in the region.
Chinese forces have stepped up their activities towards Taiwan, conducting amphibious assault exercises and flying large sorties of bombers and fighters in the vicinity of Taiwanese airspace. On Monday, China sent 56 warplanes into Taiwan's air defence identification zone. Beyond Beijing's longstanding protectiveness of what it considers its core interest in achieving reunification with Taiwan, the presence of US troops poses a further problem for Beijing as any attack on US personnel is sure to cause a sharp reaction from Washington.
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