In Geopolitics This Week
Turkey Set to be the First to Field a Drone Carrier, China Takes the Lead in Academic Research on AI, Afghan Provincial Capitals Fall Like Dominoes to the Taliban, and other stories.
Monday, August 9th
Turkey Set to be the First to Field a Drone Carrier
As Turkey works toward the goal of increasing its regional power, the rapid success of its arms industry is one of the best examples of the way Ankara is rising to the challenges of great power ambition. Of the many recent successes in this sprawling industry, perhaps the most noteworthy has been Turkey’s production of capable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). By resting on its extensive expertise in the production of combat-tested UAVs, Ankara is now looking to incorporate these advanced drone technologies into its navy to build a drone-carrying assault ship.
With Turkey’s exit from the F-35 joint strike fighter program, the country has been looking at other ways of bolstering its power projection capabilities in its near-abroad. The construction of a small aircraft carrier — the TCG Anadolu — was initially commissioned to fill this role while carrying the F-35, but with Turkey no longer part of the F-35 program, Ankara has had to improvise. Ankara’s solution to this change of circumstances is touted to be the first drone aircraft carrier fielded by any standing military, with the TCG Anadolu said to be adapted to be capable of carrying Turkey’s drone fleet aboard its deck.
Turkish defence planners are calling for the TCG Anadolu to be capable of holding 30 to 50 drones which are to be used for a variety of missions from surveillance to armed attacks. Turkish defence company Baykar has also suggested that there are plans to develop the TB-3, a combat drone tailored for use on the TCG Anadolu.
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Will a US Withdrawal Leave a Vacuum in the Middle East?
There’s an ongoing debate in the United States over whether, how, and in what shape will US military forces be positioned in the Middle East going forward. With the US-China competition on the minds of many lawmakers in Washington, the debate has touched on how might the US military make better use of its resources.
Two senior analysts, Steven Simon and Richard Sokolsky, provide insights as to why a US presence in the Middle East is no longer necessary. First, they note that the US no longer has vital interests in the Persian Gulf due to country’s growing energy production. Second, the main threats emanating from the Middle East stem from state weakness and dysfunctional governance, something military force is ill-suited to address. Third, core US interests in the region can be safeguarded at a lower cost and with fewer risks than with a heavy-handed military footprint.
The two analysts believe that the removal of US military assets from the Middle East does not necessarily mean that Russia or China will swoop in and take advantage of a reduced US presence. They note that both China and Russia have greatly benefited from the willingness of the US to take charge and shoulder the security burden of the Middle East, and neither are fully capable of taking on such a burden themselves. Their report concludes that a withdrawal of military assets from the Middle East must be accompanied by an astute diplomatic involvement aimed at retaining influence and advancing US interests through a stable environment.
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Tuesday, August 10th
China Takes the Lead in Academic Research on AI
Last year China surpassed the United States in terms of total AI-related academic citations, making up 20.7 percent of the total, while the US accounted for 19.8 percent. By tallying the total number of AI-related academic citations, researchers can roughly estimate the relative advancement of countries in the field of AI. According to a study conducted at Stanford University, China’s drive to become a leader in AI has seen remarkable progress because since 2012: China has released roughly 240,000 AI-related academic papers compared to the roughly 150,000 of the US.
That China is overtaking the US in such a strategically significant field as artificial intelligence has set off alarm bells as US strategists understand the widespread application of AI technologies — whether commercial or otherwise. Until recently, the US was considered far ahead of any other country in in this field of research, but China’s rapid rise both economically and technologically has caused enough concern in US foreign policy circles that there’s a real push for the US to regain its position of AI supremacy.
In 2017, China adopted the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan aiming to foster the country as a centre of global innovation in AI. China’s rise in the field of AI has only continued to grow since then. By 2030, China is expected to possess a vast and complex network of devices capable of generating a huge amount of data, which is perhaps one reason why US policymakers have been quick to shut out Chinese tech companies from operating in US markets. As the US looks to respond to the challenge posed by Chinese advancements, bilateral competition in AI will heat up and carry global repercussions.
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Sudan Recalls its Ambassador to Ethiopia as Relations Deteriorate
The Sudanese government has announced that the country’s ambassador to Ethiopia is being recalled following a public spat in which Ethiopia accused Khartoum of interfering in the Tigray crisis. The Sudanese Foreign Ministry outright rejected accusations levelled by Ethiopia that Sudan is not holding a neutral position in its mediation efforts over Tigray.
But the spokesperson for the Ethiopian Prime Minister declared that Ethiopia nonetheless rejects further Sudanese involvement in mediating a resolution to the Tigray conflict, claiming that Sudan “is not a credible party.” Ethiopia accuses neighbouring Sudan of taking advantage of Ethiopia’s domestic turmoil in the Tigray conflict by attempting to seize Ethiopian lands. Khartoum denies these accusations, saying it has recovered some 95 percent of what it deems its own occupied lands. The border dispute between the two countries falls in the area of Al-Fashqa, where the Ethiopian Amhara region meets the Gedaref state in Sudan.
Disregarding Ethiopian claims, Sudan has pledged to continue its push for a solution to the conflict and said that it will mediate between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) to find a peaceful solution. The relationship between Sudan and Ethiopia deteriorated rapidly following Sudan’s decision earlier in the year to strengthen ties with Egypt, with both countries jointly opposing Ethiopia’s unilateral decision to fill the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam without taking into account Sudanese and Egyptian interests.
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Wednesday, August 11th
China, the US Send Aid to Competing Centres of Power in Myanmar
China’s government has announced the transfer of more than $6 million to Myanmar’s government, which is to be used to fund a range of development projects. Similarly, the United States has announced more than $50 Million in ‘humanitarian assistance’ for Myanmar, with none of the sum going directly to the governing authorities. Instead, the funding provided by the US will be given directly to “international and non-governmental organization partners.” The moves by China and the US illustrate both powers’ desire to achieve different political outcomes in Myanmar by providing support to competing centres of power.
The aid package announced by China will see Myanmar receive funds for over 20 projects in Myanmar as part of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) Special Fund. The projects China is investing in cover human resources, vaccine production, culture, agriculture, natural disaster prevention, science and technology, environmental preservation, forestry, trade, tourism and finance. The Lancang-Mekong Cooperation group, initiated by China in 2016, is comprised of members Cambodia, China, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam.
But the United States seeks a different political reality in Myanmar. During an official visit to Thailand, a US official announced more than $50 million in critical humanitarian assistance to international and non-governmental organisation partners, which will be expected to provide emergency food assistance, lifesaving protection, shelter, health care, water, and sanitation services to “the people of Burma” (Myanmar). Interestingly, the US aid package has been accompanied by statements from Yanghee Lee, the founder of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, which note that the Myanmar government “must not be considered a partner for the delivery of aid.”
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Iraq to Host Summit in Bid to Bridge Regional Differences
The Iraqi Prime Minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, has announced that Baghdad will be hosting a regional summit at the end of the month in an effort to ease regional tensions. The summit, named the Iraqi Neighbouring Countries Conference, intends to bring together competing regional players like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
By arranging a summit involving the major players of the Middle East, Iraq is seeking to establish itself as a mediator in the many disagreements between Turkey, the Arab bloc and Iran. Iraq, as an ally of Tehran and a host of US-led coalition forces, has been caught in the ongoing tug-of-war between Israel and the United States on the one hand, and Iran on the other. The announced summit is the next logical step for the Iraqi government after Baghdad already hosted a meeting between Riyadh and Tehran earlier this year in an attempt to soothe hostilities.
Arriving in Iran on Tuesday, the Foreign Minister of Iraq extended an invitation to Iran’s new President Ebrahim Raisi. Iran issued a statement following the meeting in Tehran, welcoming the initiative but warning that “cooperation […] without foreign interference is the necessary condition for the region’s stable security.” But the proposed summit is already attracting officials from outside the region, with French President Emmanuel Macron also welcoming the Iraqi initiative, and expressing his intention to attend the summit in person.
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Thursday, August 12th
Central Asia Turns to Old Partners as the US Leaves Afghanistan
With the ongoing departure of the United States from Afghanistan, regional players are recalibrating their positions as the anxieties of a Central Asia without US engagement set in. Swift Taliban gains have made officials in this region come to terms with the reality that a Taliban government is now a likely outcome for Afghanistan. Russia and China in particular will be looking to enhance their engagement with countries in this region following a reduced US presence, with each seeking to take advantage of the opportunity.
Russia is eager to shore up its influence in Central Asia, a region that for much of the 19th and 20th centuries was part of its security framework. The US withdrawal provides an apt opportunity for Russian officials to take an active role in determining the future of the region, an opening Russian officials are unlikely to ignore. This engagement is already underway, as demonstrated by Russia’s intention to reinforce its base in Tajikistan with 17 infantry fighting vehicles, and by conducting joint military exercises with both Uzbek and Tajik forces.
China is also stepping up its engagement with countries in Central Asia. China has considerable security concerns in the region because Tajikistan borders the unstable Xinjiang region in northwestern China, which Beijing fears could see an influx of foreign fighters following the US withdrawal. Furthermore, Beijing has made significant investments through its overland Belt and Road Initiative, which will depend on a stable Central Asia for the safe transit of trade goods. To mitigate these dangers, Chinese officials have recently negotiated a bilateral security agreement with Kyrgyzstan and are moving to enhance its presence in Tajikistan.
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Turkish Gas Pipeline Could Cause Tensions in South Caucasus
In December of last year, Turkish and Azerbaijani officials penned an agreement over the construction of a pipeline weeks after a ceasefire was agreed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Construction of the pipeline is set to begin following Turkish and Azeri discussions to fast-track the project earlier this year. The pipeline is said to be designed to aid Azerbaijan with its gas supplies, which the country imports from Iran for the exclave of Nakhchivan. The pipeline will likely extend Turkey’s reach into the South Caucasus, raising concerns about Turkish encroachment for Russia and Iran.
The completion of the pipeline will mean that a 20-year agreement under which gas supplies are traded between Tehran and the Nakhchivan region will in all likelihood not be renewed. The gas link will, once completed, will have the effect of reducing Iranian influence over the exclave and form a platform upon which other infrastructure projects proposed by Turkey will further integrate Azerbaijan with Turkey. The central aim of these infrastructure projects is to open a corridor for the transit of trade goods and energy resources between the Azeri exclave of Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan proper, and between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The pipeline to Nakhchivan, coupled with a proposed railroad project, will together cause unease in Moscow and Tehran. These two powers have long enjoyed an influential position in the Caucasus and will likely oppose direct Turkish encroachment on their interests. Going forward, there will likely be increased competition in this region, as each power jostles for favourable deals to secure their interests.
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Friday, August 13th
Afghan Provincial Capitals Fall Like Dominoes to the Taliban
The Taliban have been making very rapid gains across Afghanistan and is now in a position where it controls half of all the provincial capitals in the country. In the three days since the 10th of August, the Taliban have captured the provincial capitals of Baghlan, Badakhshan, Faizabad, Ghazni, Kandahar, Herat, Badghis, Helmand, Uruzgan, Ghor, Logar, and Zabul. Taliban gains have meant that the capital city of Kabul is increasingly isolated, prompting NATO coalition countries to scramble in an effort to evacuate their agents and staff.
The Taliban advances represent a swift collapse of the Afghan forces which had been trained and equipped to the tune of over $830 billion in the two decades since combat operations began in 2001. The advancing Taliban have been pictured riding atop US-made Humvees and carrying M-16 rifles. Bradley Bowman, a senior member at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, stated that the acquisition of US-made systems by Taliban forces will increase their “mobility and lethality,” and make them a “more formidable adversary.” The Afghan forces propped up by the US-led coalition are said to have been rife with corruption and mismanagement, with little motivation to fight, and with many now said to be fleeing the country.
The United States and other coalition members are now advising their citizens to destroy any sensitive material and leave Afghanistan immediately. Denmark and Norway have already announced the shutdown of their embassies in Kabul, and have also urged their citizens to depart the country as swiftly as possible. The US is quickly sending roughly 3,000 troops to Afghanistan in order to assist with the ongoing evacuation of embassy staff, with the UK government also contributing 600 troops while proposing to relocate its embassy to a safer location closer to the centre of Kabul.
The fate of Kabul and other provincial capitals yet to be taken by the Taliban is in the balance, with many analysts anticipating little standing in the way of further Taliban advances. Under present circumstances, it is difficult to call the almost twenty-year campaign in Afganistan anything but an unmitigated failure, and the evacuation to come as something of another ‘Saigon moment’ for the United States.
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China, Russia Conclude Week of Joint Military Drills
China and Russia have been holding a large-scale joint military exercise in central China which involved over 10,000 troops. The drills come at a time when the Taliban are gaining ground in Afghanistan, which may create headaches for both Moscow and Beijing in the future as both powers could be dealing with the residue of the conflict across the border. Russia and China have intensified their military cooperation in recent years, including holding exercises in December last year when Russian and Chinese bombers flew a joint patrol mission.
Russia’s defence minister flew to China to oversee the drills. Sergey Shoygu hailed the joint war games with China as a sign of deepening military cooperation, suggesting that the expansion of these ties “is an important part of our future activities.” Shoigu also pointed out that this was the first time that Russian military personnel had taken part in joint drills on Chinese soil. The Russian military reportedly sent several Su-30SM fighters, a motorized infantry unit, and various air defence systems to the exercise which focused on counter-terrorism.
The drills were held just east of Xinjiang, which shares a narrow border with Afghanistan, and Beijing is deeply concerned that violence may spill over to its side of the border into an already tumultuous province of China. Beyond the location of the military, the exercises also serve to integrate the ability of both military forces to work together effectively as both Moscow and Beijing work to bolster a “strategic partnership” in the face of US-led pressure. The relationship between Russia and China has only continued to grow stronger since 2014. On top of deepening military cooperation, ties have expanded economically as well, with China replacing the EU as Russia’s largest trade partner.
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