In Geopolitics This Week
Saudi Arabia Signs Military Deal with Russia, Laos to Benefit from China’s BRI, The Impact of Afghan Withdrawal on Transatlantic Relations, and other stories.
Unfortunately there will be no newsletter next week as I’m moving to a different place and need some time to settle in, but expect the next edition in your mail on September 12th.
Monday, August 23rd
Egypt Continues Diplomatic Tour of the Region
Egypt has continued its recent diplomatic drive to win over more support from regional countries. The Prime Minister of Somalia, Mohamed Roble, arrived in Cairo last week at the personal invitation of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the President of Egypt. Egypt is actively courting other countries in its region, now seeking partnerships to secure its interests in the Horn of Africa, an area Cairo has neglected for some time.
This neglect, some analysts say, has been detrimental to Egypt's interests in the region, and has directly led to weakening Cairo’s ability to assert itself internationally on issues such as the rights to Nile River water, the filling of which threatens a significant part of Egypt’s agriculture sector. If left unresolved, the dispute over water rights poses an existential crisis to the government in Cairo, and it must apply pressure to Addis Ababa in order for both to come to some form of agreement. After many years looking inward, Egypt is now taking a more active role in its near-abroad, with President Sisi working to reverse this policy.
The Horn of Africa is a geographic space of special importance to Egypt, especially given the strategic significance of security in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, with the latter officially acknowledged by the Sisi administration as the backbone of the Egyptian economy. But Egypt will face competition from rivals Qatar and Turkey, who already enjoy good relations underwritten by agreements in security and trade. Nevertheless, Egypt’s promises of increased scholarships for Somali students at Egyptian universities will work toward a future goal, and having another regional leader on board Cairo’s agenda may bring its own rewards.
Read more about this story here.
Russia’s Own Quagmire in the Middle East
Russia’s military involvement in Syria has successfully saved the Syrian government and has largely defeated opposing rebel groups. In the short term, Russia’s regional and international standing has shifted, entrenching the views of already adversarial states and providing a demonstration of Russian capabilities to parties interested in partnership. But long-term, Moscow may be unable to restore Syrian sovereignty and maintain stability in the country to effectively conduct a reconstruction. The current state of affairs in Syria has Moscow increasingly bogged down in resolving infighting within Syria, in many instances fuelled by foreign powers.
The decisive victory over the rebels on the Syrian battlefield could not have been possible without considerable involvement from Russia and Iran. Both came to the aid of Assad, Moscow provided economic and military aid, Iran brought its regional militias, together forming a formidable resistance to foreign-supplied rebel groups. However, beyond the military victory in Syria, both Moscow and Tehran have since expressed differences of opinion, competition, and even hostility regarding the future of Syria.
Nonetheless, Russia has demonstrated its power in the Middle East. In Egypt, Moscow stood behind el-Sisi in his domestic struggles, boosted ties with the Gulf states, and helped General Khalifa Haftar establish rule in Libya. But the end of the Syrian civil war has not brought peace and stability, and Russia is in no position to start the economic reconstruction on its own. Moreover, Syria is gradually becoming a source of concern and a headache for Russia, as they are required to invest ever-growing resources to maintain an influential role in the peace. Russia’s involvement might at first glance look like a knockout against rivals, may yet become a significant source of strategic discomfort. If the fruits of hard power are to be realised, Moscow will have to invest in a region infamous for instability.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday, August 24th
How the United States Can Avoid a Two-Front War
As the United States re-orients itself in recognition of the coming time of growing multipolarity and great power competition within the international system, the country faces the risk of stumbling into a two-front war involving China and Russia. Such a conflict would pit the US simultaneously against the resources of nearly half of the Eurasian landmass, a scenario the US may not be well-positioned to overcome. But there are strategic options available to Washington, ways to accomplish its goals without compromising its interests.
A. Wess Mitchell argues that it may actually be in the interest of the US to encourage and incentivise Russia to increasingly consider itself as an Asian, rather than a European, power, and thereby leading Russia into friction with China down the line. To accomplish this, Mitchell asserts that the United States could incentivise its Asian allies to continue buying Russian weapons, introducing new points of friction between Moscow and Beijing.
Such a policy would have its risks however, namely, that the current Russian leadership could pocket the benefits of, say, Japanese or Korean investments in Russia’s Far East and simply continue to align itself with China simultaneously. Mitchell recognises this reality, and posits that a strategy of incentivising Russian investment in Asia would require Moscow to consider westward expansion to be too costly in the medium-term. Ukraine can be an effective instrument in effectively achieving this strategy by functioning as the focal point of the military confrontation and as a check on Russian moves elsewhere in Europe, closing the door to the West shut and forcing Russia to focus on Asia.
Read more about this story here.
Saudi Arabia Signs Military Deal with Russia
For the majority of the 76 years following the Quincy Agreement on the Great Bitter Lake between US President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Saudi King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, Riyadh has bought almost all of its weapons from either the US or one of its close allies, particularly France and the UK. But the Middle East, as well as the international system beyond, is in a state of flux, and past guarantees may not hold true in the future. In such an environment, Saudi Arabia must act quickly if the country is to secure its long-term interests.
Marking a major change in Saudi Arabia's defence policy, Riyadh and Moscow have signed a new military agreement aimed at bolstering military cooperation between the two countries. Following meetings with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, Saudi Prince Khalid is quoted as saying that the agreement will enable both countries to “endeavour to preserve stability and security in the region,” following the meeting. Shoigu also expressed optimism for future military cooperation, stating that Moscow is interested in developing cooperation in “military and military-technical fields on the entire spectrum of issues that pose mutual interest.”
Saudi Arabia’s deepening military ties with Russia are a signal that under present circumstances, Riyadh is unsatisfied with its defence capabilities. This comes as no surprise following the country’s disastrous campaign in Yemen, and Saudi defence deficiencies were especially laid bare by the Iranian attack on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in 2019. Saudi Arabia is expected to receive the first delivery of the US-made Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system only in 2023, so Riyadh is right to acknowledge that its current air defence capabilities are inadequate. It is no surprise then, that Saudi Arabia has already signalled its interest in a purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday, August 25th
Laos to Benefit from China’s BRI
This month will see the final tracks laid down on a 420 km high-speed railway line in Laos. The Boten–Vientiane railway, due to be operational at the end of this year, is part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and will link the southern Chinese city of Kunming with Vientiane, the capital of Laos. The railway is a section of a transport corridor which is expected to eventually form a part of Beijing’s broader plan to facilitate the construction of a railway link stretching all the way to Singapore.
Laos could be the greatest beneficiary of the new railroad, forming a part of Laos’ own strategic vision to transition from an isolated and landlocked power to one that is linked to the region ,with the broader goal of fostering economic development. While there are some who argue Laos could become nothing more than a transit point for China’s goods and influence, it is difficult to deny the high-speed link and other transport projects associated with the BRI will drastically reduce transport costs and boost trade for the country. For the leadership in Laos, the rewards of Chinese infrastructure investment largely outweigh the risks.
The highways and railways built under the BRI will bring a promise of development to Laos, a country with mountainous and rugged terrain, which drastically increase the costs associated with the transport of goods. But with modern infrastructure, Laos will possess a greater chance of realising its economic development ambitions due to a drastic reduction in costs the new rail line promises for Laos and the wider region. Once fully operational, the transport network built under BRI will have the effect of facilitating the movement of people, goods and capital, and will act as a catalyst for economic growth.
Read more about this story here.
Fierce Competition Over the Control of a Port in Lebanon
The Mediterranean is perhaps one of the most consequential regions undergoing rapid geopolitical changes. Along much of the entire eastern Mediterranean, global and regional actors are actively competing over contracts for port construction and expansion projects in a frantic bid to influence global trade flows. The competition to rebuild a port in Beirut is one such case which is part of a wider phenomenon that is reconfiguring the commercial architecture of the maritime space.
The participation of major Chinese shipping firms in the bidding process over Beirut's port has raised alarm in Washington and some European capitals, who together (albeit with differing convictions) seek to check China's already influential position as a majority stakeholder of commercial ports in Egypt, Israel, and Greece. If successful in its bid, China would be well-positioned to pursue its interests over much of the trade and commercial activity of the Levant. Moreover, Beijing would be able to shift the flow of goods between Europe and Asia in line with its Belt and Road Initiative, significantly enhancing China’s influence over much of the Middle East.
To prevent this reality, one way to offset China's reach into the Levant may be to incentivise France and Turkey — two key players in the Mediterranean who are often at odds — to jointly outbid China and rebuild Beirut's port without Chinese investment. While France is well positioned to take the lead in this regard, with its shipping giant CMA CGM the favourite to win out the bidding process, it may not be able to directly compete with Chinese proposals alone. Given Turkey's expanding maritime role in the Mediterranean, a joint Franco-Turkish bit may be the most strategic way to balance against China in the eastern Mediterranean.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday, August 26th
United States Conducts Naval Exercise Across Two Oceans
The United States Navy has concluded the largest maritime military exercise since the Cold War this week. The Large Scale Exercise 2021 involved more than 20,000 sailors and marines, and five fleets spread across two vast oceans. The US Navy plans to conduct military exercises at such a scale every three years from now on, with increased participation of international partners.
The head of Fleet Forces Command, Admiral Christopher Grady, said that the US Navy has “shifted focus from the individual Carrier Strike Group to a larger fleet-centric approach.” The exercise is unique as it integrates operations between fleets separated by vast geographic distances, sharing sensors data across all domains in real-time. Grady explained that the intention of this and future ‘Large Scale Exercises’ is to challenge the abilities of the fleet commanders to “make decisions at a speed and accuracy that outpaces the adversaries.”
The US Navy is using the exercises to learn, rehearse, and prepare for a potential conflict with China and Russia simultaneously. The exercise focused around adapting to fight against China in East Asia and the Pacific Ocean, while maintaining sufficient operability in the Atlantic to deter Russia. US defence planners are reportedly worried that a conflict with either power is likely to lead to a scenario where the other takes opportunistic advantage. China and Russia have strengthen their defence and trade ties recently, and both do increasingly coordinate where their interests align, but they are not yet formal allies.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey Continues Balancing Act Between Ukraine and Russia
Turkey maintains a delicate balancing act in its relations with Ukraine and Russia. Ankara openly supports Ukraine, and expresses particular cultural and ethnic affinity for the Crimean Tartars. But Turkey does so with care and diligence, as it has to maintain a complex relationship with Russia all while it encroaches on Moscow’s own interests.
Ties between Ukraine and Turkey continue to flourish. In April, the Turkish President signed a 20-point declaration in support of Ukraine, reiterating firm support for Ukraine to be incorporated into NATO. After conducting multiple deals involving shipping and drone deliveries since then, Turkey is now sending Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to attend the first Crimean Platform Summit. Cavusoglu told reporters before the summit commenced that Turkey has “never recognized the illegal annexation of Crimea,” and Turkey seems determined to dispute Russian claims to Crimea while deepening engagement with Ukraine.
Statements issues at the Summit emphasised both nations’ cultural and historical links with the Crimean Tatar peoples living in Crimea, an ethnic group which makes up roughly 13 percent of Crimea’s total population. The summit also called for Crimea to be returned to Ukraine as well as for the “de-occupation" of the Donbas. But while deepening ties with Kiev, Ankara at the same time continues to maintain ties with Moscow, whether that be by coordinating military action in Syria or purchasing the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft weapon system.
Read more about this story here.
Friday, August 27th
The Impact of Afghan Withdrawal on Transatlantic Relations
President Joe Biden foreign policy moves during the first months of his presidency involved mending ties with Europe. Biden repeatedly asserted the phrase “America is back,” as he worked to bring European nations on board a more unified policy toward China. But events in Afghanistan have undone much of Biden’s hard work trying to persuade his allies, demonstrating to NATO partners a sudden vacuum Afghanistan that they did not expect the United States to leave behind.
Trust in US leadership may be the hardest to repair, European confidence in the transatlantic relationship has tanked following the disorderly withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. This is likely because Washington failed to coordinate its withdrawal decisions with its allies, and thereby created tremendous embarrassments for them to face at home as NATO partner countries were left scrambling to figure out how best to withdraw their own staff and civilians. The High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, described the ongoing situation in Kabul as “a catastrophe,” and went on to highlight the need for the EU to develop its own military capacity.
Many EU countries now also fear a significant migration wave to come about as a result of events in Afghanistan. With the last major refugee crisis in 2015 already exposing differences between many EU member states, it is difficult to see Europeans rallying together to save those fleeing. Thousands of Afghans have already fled with most heading toward either Pakistan or Iran. After that, many are likely to attempt to reach Europe, where governments are already struggling to cope. As the going gets tough, the countries most susceptible to the flow of Afghan refugees are unlikely to forget Washington’s disastrous withdrawal.
Read more about this story here.
Global Chip Shortages Expected to Continue
The semiconductor industry is gradually adapting to the ongoing global chip shortage. Some sectors, however, are suffering. In particular, the automotive and
consumer electronics sectors are having to cut back production which translates into huge costs for manufacturers. Amidst the shortages, some chip-makers are taking advantage by jostling for a larger market share and more lucrative government contracts.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Intel are especially well-positioned to compete over a privileged position at a time when the US government is heavily incentivising domestic chip-makers to step up their production efforts. But the Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is also following in similar footsteps, as the company tries to absorb as much capacity as possible to compete with other large players.
While SMIC is increasing production at advanced nodes, it is said the Chinese chip-maker is having difficulties achieving a cost-efficient unit which can be scaled up. The chip industry may depend on high-volume data centre spending and other tech-based markets for sustained growth going forward. If demand for chip-based goods falls, there could be broad overcapacity in the supply chain, and manufacturers who accrued cash during the pandemic will be able to buy out the smaller, struggling firms with ease.
Read more about this story here.