In Geopolitics This Week
War in Ukraine Prompts a Rethink on Eurasian Trade Routes, Russian Forces in Operational Pause After Seizing Luhansk, NATO's Evolving Force Posture and Expanding Scope, and other stories.
War in Ukraine Prompts a Rethink on Eurasian Trade Routes
Interrelated and intersecting trends have emerged in Eurasian geo-economics as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Moscow. The war has put into question many international infrastructure investment plans across Eurasia, with alternative routes emerging that could see Iran play a more central role in linking the economies of Asia with the Middle East and Europe in the future.
The war in Ukraine has disrupted the planned New Eurasian Land Bridge (NELB), a rail infrastructure network that was intended to be China’s way of transforming the route of the ancient Silk Road into a modern overland trade network through its Belt and Road Initiative. As a result, economies in Central and South Asia are now considering alternative routes, with Iran touted as a viable alternative for linking Asia to Europe and the Middle East via trade.
Russia’s isolation from European markets has had the effect of shifting the Russian economy eastward as Moscow looks to mitigate the effects of sanctions by seeking alternatives to trading with NATO-aligned economies. This process, while slow, may lead to intensified efforts by Moscow to speed up development on the International North-South Transport Corridor, an overland trade and transport link which promises to traverse the Caucasus as it connects the Russian heartland to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.
Similarly, alternative trade and transit routes are being considered by Kazakhstan. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev recently instructed his government to develop the Trans-Caspian Corridor as his government seeks to improve infrastructure connecting the country’s resource extraction hubs to the Caspian Sea in a bid to boost energy exports. Tokayev has sought to build infrastructure that would help Kazakhstan be more self-sufficient and less reliant on Russian energy networks, with the move framed as a strategic goal for his government moving forward.
Kazakh-Russian relations have become strained following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with Tokayev voicing political positions that Moscow overtly opposes. Tokayev has said his country would seek to comply with US-led sanctions on Russia, welcome skilled professionals fleeing Russia, and not recognize the separatist Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. Tokayev's announcement to intensify the development of the International North-South Transport Corridor demonstrates a willingness to spend significant state resources to reduce the country’s dependence on Russia.
Russian Forces in Operational Pause after Seizing Luhansk
Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Lysychansk, marking the fall of the last major city in the Luhansk region, and the loss of the entire Luhansk oblast, to Russian forces. Ukrainian forces were initially set to carry out a formidable defence of the city, but after the fall of Severodonetsk just across the Seversky Donets river from Lysychansk, their position became untenable as the threat of being surrounded by Russian forces was considered too great.
For Russia, taking complete control of Luhansk marks a military and political victory, and will no doubt allow its forces to reposition for Moscow’s still-ongoing offensive on Donetsk. The fall of Lysychansk means Sloviansk will likely be the next target of Russian offensive manoeuvres through a (likely imminent) offensive on the region of Donetsk. Russia’s superior artillery firepower has greatly aided its advance thus far, and this advantage still holds in the weeks ahead as Russian forces look to surround the cities of Sloviansk, Bakhmut and Kramatorsk.
Now, Russian forces are to be temporarily pausing all major military offensive actions in eastern Ukraine in an attempt to reassemble and resupply. Russia’s defence ministry confirmed in a statement that Russian military units involved in combat in eastern Ukraine had been given time to rest following their military victory over Luhansk. This likely means that Russian forces will confine themselves to small-scale offensive actions as they attempt to rebuild combat power in the coming days.
Operational pauses are typically intended to regenerate combat power or augment forces for an upcoming phase of war, so the Russian military command has apparently recognised the need for such a pause given the state of its forces. Force preservation, reconstitution of units, and casualty replacement are becoming crucial for both sides as a grinding war of attrition continues to test the willpower and manpower reserves of both belligerents. Russia and Ukraine are both now combining depleted units — likely drawing from reserves with much less training — in a bid to maintain positional strength and present stiff resistance to any potential enemy offensive manoeuvres.
NATO’s Evolving Force Posture and Expanding Scope
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit held in Madrid last month not only reinforced Russia’s historical position as the bloc’s main adversary, but also saw the scope of NATO’s purpose expanded to include the growing threat posed by China. The annual summit saw alliance members agree to transform the posture of NATO forces in Europe in a bid to deter Russia, while also explicitly branding China as a “systemic challenge” to the entire bloc.
To deter Russia, NATO officials revived a concept which involves certain alliance countries being responsible for securing other, more vulnerable, members. The idea is part of a shift in the alliance’s force posture, and will effectively see NATO members on the eastern flank receive prepositioned equipment that arriving troops could quickly access from storage.
The posture change aims to transform NATO’s eastern deployments from a “tripwire” force intended to hold up Russian forces long enough for reinforcements to arrive, to a “brick wall” approach that would deny any and all Russian offensive operations the ability to anchor their forces in a forward position. This approach is said to involve the creation of smaller geographic areas of responsibility along the eastern flank. Rooted in NATO’s enhanced forward presence concept, the plan envisions a French formation stationed in Romania, a German formation operating in Lithuania, while the United Kingdom would take responsibility over Estonia.
The newly adopted Strategic Concept Document also recognized China as one of the alliance’s strategic priorities. While the new Strategic Concept Document lists multiple domains of concern related to China, it did not yet classify the country as a direct adversary. Nevertheless, the struggle for influence over the Indo-Pacific has prompted the United States to press for the inclusion of China in NATO’s threat assessments.
Becoming a “systemic challenge” to NATO is a serious strategic problem for China. With a trade agreement between the EU and China stalled, and with Washington pressuring its allies to adopt its own security calculations in Asia and the Pacific Ocean within the NATO framework, the door to increased EU-China cooperation appears to be closing. Making matters worse for Beijing, deteriorating relations with other major powers (and US allies) in the Indo-Pacific are gradually being codified into a comprehensive long-term strategy within NATO which paints China as a systemic threat, one that all members of the alliance will, in principle, work to overcome.