In Geopolitics This Week
Colombia’s Ceasefire with Largest Rebel Group Breaks Down, Israeli Official Sparks International Diplomatic Backlash, NATO Armoured Vehicles Heading to Ukraine, and other stories.
Colombia’s Ceasefire with Largest Rebel Group Breaks Down
As 2022 was closing, Colombia's government announced a six-month bilateral ceasefire with five of the largest armed rebel groups active in the country. The groups forming part of the deal included the National Liberation Army (ELN), the Second Marquetalia, the Central General Staff, the AGC and the Self-Defense Forces of the Sierra Nevada.
Despite a peace pact signed in 2016, armed groups in Colombia remain locked in deadly disputes over drug trafficking revenues and other illegal businesses. The ceasefire, which was announced by President Gustavo Petro on New Year’s Eve, was intended to come into force from January 1 until June 30, 2023, with the agreement “extendable depending on progress” in ongoing negotiations. The announced ceasefire is to be monitored by the United Nations, a Colombian human rights investigator, and the Catholic Church.
Then, just days after the ceasefire was announced, Bogotá temporarily suspended the ceasefire with the ELN — one of the country's largest armed groups — after the group denied any sort of agreement had been reached in the first place. The ELN stated they did not agree to the ceasefire, indicating that the group intends to continue fighting against government forces. This would mean more attacks by the group are possible in the coming weeks.
The suspension of the ceasefire with ELN came as Petro attempts to bring an end to six decades of instability and internal conflict in Colombia. The lack of clarity on whether or not a cease-fire was fully agreed upon points to this being an instance of miscommunication between the armed group and government negotiators.
Israeli Official Sparks International Diplomatic Backlash
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's National Security Minister, has sparked a diplomatic backlash following his visit to the contested Temple Mount holy site in Jerusalem. The site is revered by both Jews and Muslims and is a regular source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians.
In May 2021, these tensions led to an 11-day war with Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that controls the Gaza Strip. The site has also played a significant role in past conflicts, including the second intifada, which was sparked by a visit from Israeli opposition leader Ariel Sharon in October 2000.
In recent years, Palestinians have accused Israel of allowing Jews and Christians to pray at the site, which is prohibited according to Muslim tradition. Ben-Gvir's ultranationalist Jewish Power party aims to increase the number of Jewish worshippers visiting the Temple Mount.
Hamas threatened violence if Ben-Gvir visited the site and even former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid warned that “people will die” if the visit takes place. Despite these warnings, Ben-Gvir visited the site under the protection of Israeli security forces, stating that Israel will not “give in” to “threats” from Hamas.
Although the visit passed without incident, the move drew widespread regional and international condemnation from Israel’s allies and adversaries alike. Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the United States all issued statements condemning the visit, with Israel’s allies urging the country to avoid disrupting the status quo on the Temple Mount.
NATO Armoured Vehicles Heading to Ukraine
France, Germany and the United States have made decisions to provide the Ukrainian army with new kinds of advanced armoured vehicles. The three major powers will for the first time transfer NATO-produced armoured vehicles and light tanks to Ukraine in a bid to shore up Ukraine’s fighting ability. This comes as NATO stocks of Soviet-built weapon systems and vehicles across Central and Eastern Europe have largely been exhausted.
According to reports, France is said to be preparing discussions with Ukraine's defence ministry to arrange the delivery of AMX-10 RC armoured combat vehicles. The talks are expected to cover the delivery timetable and training of Ukrainian soldiers on the equipment. The AMX-10 RC is a light tank which carries a 105mm cannon and two machine guns, and is primarily designed for reconnaissance missions.
Days later, Germany agreed to transfer around 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and a Patriot air defence system to Ukraine after a conversation between Chancellor Olaf Schultz and US President Joe Biden on January 5. On the same day, the US agreed to send 50 Bradley IFVs to Ukraine as part of a $3.75 billion package, which includes a $2.85 billion drawdown from US weapon stockpiles. The package also includes 100 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers, 18 155mm self-propelled Howitzers, 36 105mm towed Howitzers, 500 TOW anti-tank missiles, and 250,000 rounds of 25 mm ammunition.
Since the start of the war, Ukraine has primarily received Soviet-era tanks and IFVs from Eastern and Central European countries, as well as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) from the US. In December, the commander of Ukraine's armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, stated that Ukraine would need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, and 500 howitzers to launch a new offensive against Russia.
The delivery of NATO-built armoured vehicles and tanks demonstrate the increasing willingness of Ukraine’s economic, military and political backers to loosen constraints on military aid flowing to the country. While Ukraine has long requested more advanced military assistance, France and Germany have long resisted calls to send their tanks and IFVs in an attempt to avoid escalating the conflict with Russia. Now, both appear to be changing their posture. The decisions taken by France, Germany and the US now opens the possibility of further NATO-built heavy weapon deliveries to Ukraine in the future.