In Geopolitics Today - Friday, April 1st
US Warns India Against Increased Russian Energy Purchases, Turkey Seeks to Repair Relations with Saudi Arabia, Geopolitical Competition Threatens Global Food Supply Chains
US Warns India Against Increased Russian Energy Purchases
As India explores making more purchases of discounted Russian energy, the United States has issued a warning to New Delhi. India is looking to take advantage of a steep discount in the price of Russian energy following a wave of US and European sanctions on its financial system. Yet Washington is eager to block Russian efforts at finding customers elsewhere, and has sought to make clear to officials in New Delhi that a significant energy deal between Moscow and New Delhi may prove costly for India.
US officials have reportedly issued a warning that buying more oil from Russia could expose India to a “great risk.” The unnamed source is reported as stating that while the US has no “objection to India buying Russian oil,” New Delhi must ensure that any energy deal with Moscow does not cover “significantly increasing” volumes. Washington’s indirect threat to New Delhi comes as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held meetings with Indian officials, and a day after US and UK officials sought to persuade the Indian government to align its policy with the sanctions regime. US Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics, Daleep Singh said the United States would did not want to see a “rapid acceleration” in energy purchases between India and Russia. This puts India in a precarious position, as New Delhi can ill-afford to alienate Russia, a long-time ally and major arms supplier.
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Turkey Seeks to Repair Relations with Saudi Arabia
As the diplomatic relationships in the Middle East continue to shift, Turkey has sought to repair relations with Saudi Arabia in a bid to attract lucrative economic investments. Turkish-Saudi relations have been particularly strained since the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, whose death in the Saudi consulate in 2018 seriously damaged ties between Ankara and Riyadh. The Turkish government now appears to be setting the contentious issue aside to improve Turkey’s floundering economy.
Saudi Arabia have long requested that the legal case surrounding Khashoggi’s murder be transferred to Saudi authorities. But Turkey resisted such a move, and has been a key driver behind the international pressure which accused the Saudi government for being complicit in the crime. Now, a Turkish panel of judges is exploring the possible transfer of the case to Saudi judicial authorities, indicating hat the Turkish government may be willing to cease previous efforts aimed at seeking justice for the murder of Khashoggi by applying pressure to Riyadh. By putting aside the thorny issue, the Turkish government is likely looking to reap financial rewards via foreign direct investments from Saudi Arabia.
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Geopolitical Competition Threatens Global Food Supply Chains
Food is a key variable in geopolitics because access to food and water are basic human needs. This most fundamental reality is perhaps the most important geopolitical imperative which drives states to ensure their populations do not starve. But the current global system of food supply chains is largely a manifestation of the geopolitical rise of the United States as the dominant global power over the course of the last century. The 20th century saw the United States employ its vast productive power and relative security to actively promote trade liberalization elsewhere as a means of finding markets for its vast agricultural exports.
One consequence of Washington’s dominant geopolitical position throughout the 20th century has been the establishment of international trade networks which are conductive to US interests. The global agricultural system is a manifestation of geopolitical competition in the 20th century, and functions when protectionist policies are discredited, markets are open due to trade liberalization, and a single power (the US) guarantees the security of trade routes for all those who participate in such a trade structure. But the ongoing war in Ukraine is threatening this long-standing network of trade as major food and fertilizer supplies fall under strict US-led sanctions on Russia, a major exporter of goods critical to global food supply chains. Beyond the war in Ukraine, it is difficult to see global food supply chains recover from the consequences of the Russian invasion and the subsequent sanctions imposed on Russia.
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