In Geopolitics Today: Friday, April 26th
Morocco Deepens Defence Ties with Israel, US Military Begins Construction of Pier in Gaza, and other stories.
Morocco Deepens Defence Ties with Israel
Despite the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict and domestic opposition, Morocco appears set to continue expanding its defence cooperation with Israel to bolster its military capabilities and domestic arms industry. Recent developments include Israeli weapons manufacturer BlueBird Aero Systems announcing the imminent opening of a drone production facility in Morocco, following similar plans by Elbit for air defence missile, armoured vehicle, and kamikaze drone factories.
Morocco's deepening defence ties with Israel, even in the face of the Gaza war and widespread pro-Palestinian sentiment among its populace, underscore the strategic priority Rabat places on modernizing its military and establishing a domestic defence industrial base. By leveraging Israeli technology and investment, Morocco aims to enhance its control over weapons supply chains, reduce reliance on imports, and eventually become an arms exporter. However, this growing alignment with Israel risks inflaming tensions with regional rival Algeria, particularly in the disputed Western Sahara territory. Nevertheless, Morocco appears committed to the long-term benefits of advancing its military and regional ambitions with the backing of both Israel and the United States.
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Blinken Warns China Over Support for Russia's Defence Industry
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with top Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping, in Beijing. During the meetings, Chinese leaders criticized US restrictions on technology exports and framed Washington's efforts to suppress China's economy as the main obstacle to improved bilateral relations. Blinken, however, maintained that China must address its support for Russia's defence industry.
The high-level discussions reveal persistent challenges in US-China relations, with both sides talking past one another on key issues. While Beijing blamed Washington for the strained ties, Blinken remained firm on the need for China to change its policies concerning Russia, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and industrial overcapacity. Blinken's warning to China comes as the US has accused Beijing of being a “prime contributor” of weapons-related technology to Russia, fuelling the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While China has complied with US requests not to sell arms directly to Russia, it continues to supply a wide range of items with potential military applications, with Washington now threatening sanctions on Beijing.
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Belarus Manoeuvres to Avoid Direct Involvement in Ukraine War
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has sought to steer his country clear of direct participation in the Ukraine war during a recent visit to Moscow. Despite allowing Russian forces to launch the initial invasion from Belarusian territory, Minsk has since tried to avoid being pulled further into the conflict, emphasizing its need to counter NATO threats to its own security.
Instead, Belarus has positioned itself as an industrial hub and training ground for Russian forces, aiming to fill critical supply gaps caused by sanctions. This strategy allows Minsk to argue for the importance of Belarusian stability to Russian interests while keeping its economy afloat. Lukashenko also pushed back against calls for Belarus to join the fighting, warning that such a move could prompt NATO intervention and overstretch joint Russian-Belarusian forces. By stressing Belarus's potential future role as a mediator, Lukashenko seeks to shape Moscow's behaviour through cooperative enmeshment rather than direct military involvement.
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NATO Aircraft Conduct Reconnaissance Missions Near Crimea
Seven NATO aircraft, including four electronic reconnaissance planes and three drones, conducted extensive surveillance of Russian air defence positions on the Crimean Peninsula this week. The aircraft, belonging to the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Italy, operated in the Black Sea near the airspace of Romania and Bulgaria.
The reconnaissance missions reportedly involved the use of advanced radar systems, Electronic Support Measures, and infrared and optical sensors to detect and map out Russian air defences. The intensified NATO surveillance activity has fuelled speculation about potential upcoming Ukrainian strikes against high-value targets in Crimea. Ukraine may be preparing to use newly acquired MGM-140B ATACMS long-range missiles to attack the Kerch Strait Bridge or Russian naval and air bases on the peninsula. The Kerch Strait Bridge serves as a key supply route for Russian forces, while the bases in Sevastopol, Feodosia, Belbek, Gvardeyskoe, and Novofedorovka play important roles in maintaining Russia's military presence on the Crimean Peninsula.
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Kazakhstan and the UK Sign Strategic Partnership Agreement
Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom have signed a Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, elevating their bilateral relations. The agreement, which took six years to develop, was signed during UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron's official visit to Astana, where he held talks with his Kazakh counterpart, Murat Nurtleu, and President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
The agreement aims to strengthen cooperation in key areas such as trade, investment, energy, mining, environmental protection, climate change, and science. Nurtleu emphasized that the agreement will provide a significant boost to political, trade, and investment ties between Astana and London. Cameron's visit to Kazakhstan is part of a broader regional tour of Central Asia and Mongolia, aimed at reducing Russian sanction circumvention of dual-use materials, as well as expanding commercial relationships that exclude Russia.
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US Military Begins Construction of Pier in Gaza
The US military has commenced construction of a pier off the coast of Gaza to facilitate the delivery of aid, with completion expected in early May. The joint operation with Israeli forces, involving approximately 1,000 soldiers and sailors from the Army's 7th Transportation Brigade and Naval Beach Group 1, will deploy the Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore (JLOTS) capability to establish an 1,800-foot causeway and a roll-on, roll-off discharge facility three miles offshore.
Once fully operational, the pier is projected to handle up to 150 truckloads, significantly augmenting the current average of 200 trucks entering Gaza per day. The US is closely coordinating with the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) to ensure force protection for US personnel operating at sea and the Gaza shoreline. However, no US boots will be on the ground in Gaza during the operation. The aid delivery faces potential challenges, including the need for shipments to pass through Israeli checkpoints. The commencement of the pier's construction marks a crucial step in addressing the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, though any US cooperation with Israel on the aid delivery is likely to be tailored to Israel interests.