In Geopolitics Today: Friday, April 5th
Spain Emerges as Vocal Critic of Israel's Offensive, Moldova Emerges as a Potential Flashpoint, and other stories.
Spain Emerges as Vocal Critic of Israel's Offensive
Spain has taken a leading role in criticizing Israel's military campaign in Gaza, with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez emerging as one of the most forceful voices in a divided Europe. Since the start of the war, Sanchez has consistently condemned Israel's actions, questioning its compliance with international humanitarian law and calling for a comprehensive solution to the decades-old Middle East conflict.
In a significant departure from the cautious stance adopted by many of his European counterparts, Sanchez has urged the EU to review its strategic relationship with Israel and consider sanctions. Spain has already stopped selling weapons to Israel and is pushing for the international recognition of Palestine as a sovereign state with full UN membership. Madrid's vocal criticism has given unusual visibility to a country often seen as punching below its weight in shaping EU foreign policy, reflecting both the urgency of the crisis and the shifting power dynamics within Spain's left-wing coalition government. As Sanchez works to rally like-minded EU nations to his cause, his activism has turned him into a de facto leader of a group that includes Belgium, Ireland, Malta, and Slovenia, all of which have expressed support for Palestinian statehood.
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Mongolia and the UK in Talks to Establish Rare-Earth Export Corridor
Mongolia is exploring new avenues to increase exports of its vast rare earth element (REE) deposits to the West, aiming to reduce its economic dependence on China and Russia. Talks are underway between the Mongolian and British governments to establish an “air bridge” that would facilitate the shipment of these critical minerals, which play a crucial role in modern defence, medical, information, and green technologies.
Under the leadership of Western-educated Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene, Mongolia is seeking to diversify its economic partnerships and bypass its reliance on access to China's Tianjin port for exports. However, this endeavour faces significant challenges, as Mongolia's landlocked position between Russia and China makes it difficult to send REEs to the West without passing through these countries' territories. With Russian airspace closed to British aircraft, Mongolia must navigate complex tensions and potentially rely on its own airlines for transport. Despite these hurdles, the success of existing mining projects, such as the Rio Tinto-operated Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, offers hope for future collaborations in the extraction and refining of Mongolia's untapped REE reserves.
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Pakistan and Afghanistan Prioritize Trade Despite Tensions
Pakistan and the Taliban administration in Afghanistan have agreed to prioritize trade and pursue “uninterrupted” commercial activities, despite ongoing security tensions between the two countries. The commitment to “separate business from politics” comes on the heels of recent Pakistani airstrikes against suspected militant hideouts in Afghanistan, which prompted retaliatory fire from Afghan forces along the border.
In talks held in late March, Pakistani and Afghan officials discussed key trade issues, including establishing a preferential trade agreement, facilitating air cargo movement, and enabling 24/7 operation of border crossings. While both countries have ambitious plans to increase bilateral trade volume to $5 billion, security concerns and Pakistan's frustration over the Taliban's perceived reluctance to curb Pakistani Taliban militants along the border cast doubt on the feasibility of this target. The complex interplay of security, economic ambitions, and competition between regional ports, such as Pakistan's Gwadar and Iran's Chabahar, underscores the challenges in normalizing trade relations between the two neighbours.
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Iran Navigates Shifting Alliances in the Caucasus
Iran's diplomatic balancing act in the Caucasus is becoming increasingly complex as regional dynamics shift in the wake of Azerbaijan's victory in Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Tehran has recently moved to smooth relations with Baku, agreeing to the construction of the Aras transit corridor connecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via Iranian territory. This rapprochement comes despite Baku's close ties with Israel, a key rival of Iran in the Middle East.
Simultaneously, Iran's traditional alliance with Armenia is showing signs of strain. Tehran has warned Yerevan against growing too close to Western powers like France and the US, even as Armenia's relations with Russia deteriorate. Iran's own ties with Moscow are strengthening, driven by shared “inter-pariah solidarity” in the face of Western sanctions and the development of the North-South trade route. However, Iran is unlikely to fully abandon Armenia, as it seeks to keep trade routes open and maintain a balanced approach in the region. The interplay of these shifting alliances, coupled with the risk of escalating Israel-Iran tensions, underscores the complex geopolitical calculus Iran must navigate in the Caucasus.
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Moldova Emerges as a Potential Flashpoint
Moldova is increasingly drawing attention as a potential staging ground for Western efforts to counter Russian advances in neighbouring Ukraine. The small Eastern European nation, split between pro-EU and pro-Russian factions, is currently hosting US, Romanian, and German troops for training exercises and border security missions. This increased foreign military presence, coupled with EU financial aid and energy support, suggests Moldova's growing strategic significance in the region.
Recent developments in the breakaway region of Transdniestria have heightened tensions. A drone attack on a military unit in Transdniestria, which Moscow accused Ukraine and Moldova of orchestrating, destroyed a helicopter and damaged a radar station. Such incidents risk escalation in the volatile region, home to the massive Cobasna ammunition dump. The situation remains precarious, as Moldova's constitutionally enshrined neutrality clashes with government steps towards aligning with the West. Internally, the pro-EU government's crackdown on opposition parties and media outlets risks inflaming tensions with pro-Russian elements. Moldova's stability and orientation could prove pivotal in shaping the broader geopolitical landscape and balance of power in Eastern Europe, with the drone strike in Transdniestria signalling a potentially dangerous new frontier in the conflict.
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Thailand Joins China-led International Lunar Research Station Project
Thailand has become the ninth country to join the China-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) initiative, signing a memorandum of understanding on cooperation with the China National Space Administration (CNSA). The two sides also inked an agreement on broader cooperation in the exploration and peaceful use of outer space.
Under the ILRS partnership, Thailand and China will collaborate on the demonstration, project implementation, operation, and application of the lunar research station. The ILRS envisions constructing a permanent lunar base in the 2030s, with precursor missions planned for the 2020s, including the Chang'e-7 and Chang'e-8 missions targeting the lunar South Pole. Thailand's involvement in the ILRS project is part of its growing space ambitions, as the country seeks to boost its space-related economy and technologies. China continues to attract founding members and advance its lunar exploration hardware, so the ILRS project is shaping up to be a significant player in the future of moon exploration and utilization.