In Geopolitics Today: Friday, April 14th
Long-awaited Prisoner Swap Brings Hopes for Peace in Yemen, China Pledges Neutrality in Ukraine War, Won't Supply Weapons, and other stories.
US and Philippines Revitalize Defence Alliance
The United States and the Philippines have reinvigorated of their defence alliance, with both countries committing to completing a 10-year roadmap for delivering US military equipment to the Philippines, including priority defence platforms such as drones, military transport aircraft, and coastal and air defence systems. The two countries have also launched their largest and most technologically sophisticated joint military exercises to counter China's military manoeuvres in nearby waters, which have caused rising tensions in the region.
The joint statement issued after the recent "2+2" meeting between top foreign policy and defence officials from the United States and the Philippines indicates that the two countries have reinvigorated their defence alliance due to their growing concerns about China. The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) has been revived, allowing the United States to constantly rotate troops in the Philippines, use Philippine bases for prolonged stays, and build and operate facilities together with Filipino personnel. The optimized strategic positioning of the four new EDCA sites highlights the United States and the Philippines' shared desire to oppose Chinese encroachment around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.
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Long-awaited Prisoner Swap Brings Hopes for Peace in Yemen
Yemen has taken a significant step towards peace with a long-awaited prisoner swap taking place between the belligerents. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has started transferring nearly 900 detainees in Yemen as part of a “multi-day operation” that will see them flown in and out of several cities in Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The exchange was agreed upon in late March by the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Iran-aligned Houthis, brokered by the United Nations.
The swap is the biggest since the two sides freed more than 1,000 detainees late in 2020. Although the exchange of prisoners is a welcome development, a long-term solution to the conflict remains elusive, and peace talks are ongoing. The ongoing conflict in Yemen has caused immense destruction to much of Yemen and the Yemeni people, and the ceasefire that ended last October has done little to stem the violence. The Yemeni government has been unable to defeat the Houthis militarily, and Saudi Arabia, which backs the Yemeni government financially and militarily, is now seeking a negotiated exit.
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Brazil and China Sign Agreements to Strengthen Economic Partnership
The leaders of Brazil and China have met in Beijing to discuss cooperation and shared interests. Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and China's President Xi Jinping focused their discussions on bilateral trade and cooperation, while also stressing the need for a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine. The leaders signed 15 agreements, covering a range of sectors including renewable energy, agribusiness, information technology, health, infrastructure, and scientific and technological research.
Brazil and China are important economic partners, with bilateral trade totalling $150 billion in 2022. This meeting marks a significant step in strengthening the relationship between the two countries, which had been strained under Brazil's previous leadership under Jair Bolsonaro. Lula, who took office at the beginning of the year, has been seeking to reset Brazil's ties with allies and reassert the country's role in international diplomacy. This meeting is part of Lula's efforts to improve Brazil's relationships with key partners around the world, following trips to Argentina, Uruguay, and the United States earlier this year.
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Myanmar Conflict Remains Deadlocked
The ongoing conflict in Myanmar between the State Administration Council junta and the National Unity Government (NUG) has continued with no signs of a peaceful resolution. Parts of the Sagaing and Magway regions have devolved into islands of competing control with villages aligning themselves with one side or the other based on political leanings. As a result, the conflict remains low-intensity, with intermittent bursts of fierce fighting.
The international community has called for de-escalation, but neither camp appears interested. Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) who had hoped to temper the crisis are becoming increasingly exasperated. Both sides have labeled each other “terrorists,” and insist on militarily vanquishing their respective foes. Both the junta and the NUG project themselves as having the upper hand in order to garner international acceptance, but both these claims are highly questionable. The situation remains at a stalemate, and the conflict is likely to continue for years to come.
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China Pledges Neutrality in Ukraine War, Won't Supply Weapons
China has declared that it will not supply weapons to either side in the ongoing war in Ukraine. Speaking at a news conference in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said that his country would remain neutral in the conflict while continuing to support Russia politically, rhetorically, and economically. Qin is the highest-ranking Chinese official to make such a statement, which was made in response to Western concerns that China could provide military assistance to Russia.
China promised to regulate the export of dual-use items in accordance with laws and regulations, and reiterated its commitment to helping find a peaceful resolution to the conflict. In addition to discussing the situation in Ukraine, Qin also criticized Taiwan’s government for heightening regional tensions. Qin argued that Taiwan was “China’s internal affair” and blamed the pursuit of independence by Taiwan’s government and its foreign supporters, a veiled reference to the United States and its allies, for the rising tensions.