In Geopolitics Today - Friday, April 29th
Saudi Arabia and Turkey Reset Relations, EU Plans to Replace Russian Natural Gas, Arms Control in a Multipolar International Order
Saudi Arabia and Turkey Reset Relations
Turkey is looking to rapidly improve ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has met with both Saudi Arabia's King Salman and its Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the al-Salam palace in the city of Jeddah. Ties between the two countries have been strained since 2018, when Erdogan accused the highest levels of the Saudi government of giving the order to murder Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi Arabian journalist. Over recent weeks however, Ankara has softened its tone on the matter as its government looks to reset relations with Riyadh.
Prior to flying to Saudi Arabia, Erdogan said he hoped to launch a new era in bilateral ties between the two countries. Erdogan's visit comes after economic indicators in Turkey have fallen for months, with massive economic losses resulting from a Saudi economic and travel boycott of Turkey. With relations symbolically restored via a public ceremony, both governments are looking to benefit from the increased economic and political cooperation that normalized bilateral relations would bring. Turkey would be well served by a resumption in trade and tourism flows from Saudi Arabia, while Saudi Arabia may be seeking to buy Turkish weapons systems and cooperation on regional issues. The move can be seen as part of a broad geopolitical shift present across the region that is causing an emerging diplomatic realignment that has brought the relationship between Ankara and Riyadh closer together.
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EU Plans to Replace Russian Natural Gas
Parallel to wide-ranging sanctions against Russian state institutions, officials, and prominent allies of the Russian government, the EU has outlined its plan to make Europe independent from fossil fuels before 2030. To do so, the EU will have to delicately remove Russia from its gas balance as it aims to reduce a major source of Russian state revenues. Yet doing this in the near-term would cause enormous economic and social dislocations, particularly in Germany. Outlines of the plan indicate that the Brussels will work to facilitate an immediate reduction in the residential consumption of Russian natural gas across the EU.
The plan may fall short of its goals in the near-term, but could see success over a five year period if consumption across Europe can be drastically reduced. The target for 2022 of replacing 100 billion cubic metres of Russian gas looks unachievable as the EU is expected to compete over shipments of liquefied natural gas with countries in Asia. Moreover, there are few liquefied natural gas projects slated for completion within the next 12 months that would help boost natural gas supplies to EU member states. Turkmenistan’s Caspian Connector pipeline, a project expected to be completed by the end of this year, may help advance the goals of the plan. In the long-term, a number of significant LNG projects are expected to come online, promising to increase global LNG production and ease EU efforts at diversifying away from all sources of Russian natural gas.
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Arms Control in a Multipolar International Order
New technological advances have made the task of understanding nuclear interactions between states more complex. The existence of precision strike systems, air and missile defences, as well as hypersonic and directed energy weapons influence the strategies of all the nuclear-armed powers. Technological competition is intensifying just as significant improvements in the range, guidance, and survivability of nuclear weapons are being developed.
Improvements in missile defences are promising to shake up offense-defence calculations for those conducting nuclear strategy for their states. China's recent military ascension and drive to modernize its nuclear arsenal are altering the dynamics of nuclear strategy. Israel's recent demonstration of a laser defence system is a glimpse into a world where the effectiveness of missiles and drones could become limited as laser-based countermeasures come into military service. Moreover, the impact of advances in AI are likely to be considerable, and even more difficult to foresee., Different countries are likely to develop their own unique approaches to integrating AI into nuclear systems.
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