In Geopolitics Today: Friday, April 12th
US, Japan, Philippines Hold First Trilateral Summit to Counter China, Russian Military Trainers Arrive in Niger to Deepen Security Ties, and other stories.
US, Japan, Philippines Hold First Trilateral Summit to Counter China
The US, Japan, and the Philippines held their first-ever trilateral summit at the White House on April 11, signalling a strengthening alliance aimed at countering China in the South China Sea. President Biden hosted Philippine President Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, emphasizing the meeting as a “natural progression” among partners. The summit comes amid rising tensions over China's use of water cannons to block Philippine vessels from resupplying a military outpost in the contested Spratly Islands.
The trilateral meeting sought to bolster economic and security cooperation, with plans for joint coast guard patrols, an assistance hub in the Philippines, and infrastructure projects under the US-led Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. The three nations are strengthening economic and security ties, with the US and Japan aiming to enhance the Philippines' capacity to defend its maritime claims. The US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit signals a significant shift in the Indo-Pacific. The summit also reflects Washington's efforts to rally allies and Tokyo's increasing role in shaping regional security. However, the Philippines faces the challenge of balancing its relations with the US, Japan, and China. The durability of the trilateral cooperation will be tested by the enduring geopolitical realities that define the Indo-Pacific.
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Kenya Proposes Regional Maritime Treaty to Defuse Tensions
Kenya has put forward a proposal for a regional maritime treaty to govern commercial port access for landlocked countries, aiming to de-escalate the ongoing dispute between Ethiopia and Somalia. The proposed treaty, developed in consultation with Djibouti and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), would grant Ethiopia stable access to maritime resources through Somalia while respecting Somalia's territorial integrity.
The proposal comes in response to Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to lease a stretch of coastline in exchange for recognizing Somaliland's independence. This deal has fuelled tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, with the latter viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty. While the Kenyan proposal may appeal to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as he grapples with domestic challenges, it could prove politically difficult for Somali President Sheikh Hassan Mohamud to accept given strong public resentment toward Ethiopia. As such, the dispute is likely to persist in the short term. However, if both sides ultimately agree to the treaty, it could serve as a blueprint for other landlocked nations in the region, such as South Sudan and Uganda, to secure commercial maritime access.
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Global Fertility Rates Plummet
Fertility rates have fallen dramatically worldwide in recent decades, with nearly every country now below the population replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. Countries in East Asia and southern and Eastern Europe have been hit particularly hard, with rates as low as 0.7 in South Korea and 1.1 in China. Africa remains the only continent above replacement level, while rates in the Americas, Europe and Asia range from 1.5 to 1.9.
The lagged effects of persistently low fertility pose serious challenges. Countries face a shrinking military-age and working-age population, alongside a swelling elderly cohort requiring costly support. This demographic imbalance strains economies and societies, prompting some to view it as a form of collective suicide. Reversing the trend proves difficult, as it would require heroic sacrifices by future generations. Immigration offers limited relief, as integrating the vast numbers needed from high-fertility regions like Africa appears fraught. Even democratic governance has not prevented this demographic decline in countries like Japan and South Korea, the latter now with the world's lowest fertility.
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Russian Military Trainers Arrive in Niger to Deepen Security Ties
Russian military trainers have landed in Niger's capital, Niamey, with an air defence system and other equipment, signalling a deepening of security ties between the two nations. The arrival comes as Niger's military government seeks to bolster its defences and assert greater control over its airspace, following the expulsion of French forces earlier this year.
The growing Russian presence in Niger is part of a broader trend of Moscow's expanding influence in Africa, particularly in countries where Western influence has waned. The Kremlin has capitalized on anti-colonial sentiment and the desire for new security partnerships, as evidenced by the warm relations between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Niger's military leader, General Abdourahamane Tchiani. However, Niger's increasing reliance on Russia for military support and potential economic concessions, such as gold mining rights, risks isolating the country from Western-supported regional and international partners. With foreign aid accounting for half of its budget before the coup, Niger may struggle to maintain stability if it becomes overly dependent on Moscow.
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Myanmar's Karen Rebels Seize Key Border Town
Ethnic Karen rebels and allied forces have captured the strategic town of Myawaddy on Myanmar's border with Thailand, marking a significant blow to the ruling military government. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and People's Defense Forces (PDFs) overran the last junta outpost early on April 11 after 36 hours of intense fighting.
The fall of Myawaddy, a crucial trade hub, cuts off a vital revenue stream for Myanmar’s ruling military government, and grants the rebels control over key highways leading into central Myanmar. This defeat, following other territorial losses in Shan and Rakhine states, is a part in a series of mounting challenges faced by the military regime in maintaining its grip on power. As the conflict evolves, the junta may be compelled to grant greater autonomy to ethnic enclaves. However, the KNLA's ability to consolidate and expand its gains before the monsoon season remains uncertain, as does the prospect of a sustainable modus vivendi between rebel-held areas and those controlled by the government.
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Central Asia Doubles Down on Coal
Central Asian nations are increasingly relying on coal-fired power plants, bucking the global trend toward cleaner energy sources. According to a report by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), plans for new coal-fired generating capacity in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan reached 8.1 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, up from 3.9 GW a decade earlier. Coal now accounts for 45 percent of the region's electricity production.
The report highlights the risks associated with this strategy, including the creation of stranded assets and unnecessary socio-economic and environmental costs. Over 60 percent of Central Asia's coal-fired electricity is generated by outdated plants, posing serious risks of excessive pollution and breakdowns. Despite Kazakhstan's efforts to embrace green technologies, it remains the region's worst coal offender, with plans to add 4.6 GW of coal-fired capacity. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan are following suit, albeit on a smaller scale. The GEM report warns that these plans will make it more difficult and expensive for the region to meet future climate commitments and achieve carbon neutrality.